• Energy Research

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.

AbstractOcean acidification is considered detrimental to marine calcifiers, but mounting contradictory evidence suggests a need to revisit this concept. This systematic review and meta‐analysis aim to critically re‐evaluate the prevailing paradigm of negative effects of ocean acidification on calcifiers. Based on 5153 observations from 985 studies, many calcifiers (e.g., echinoderms, crustaceans, and cephalopods) are found to be tolerant to near‐future ocean acidification (pH ≈ 7.8 by the year 2100), but coccolithophores, calcifying algae, and corals appear to be sensitive. Calcifiers are generally more sensitive at the larval stage than adult stage. Over 70% of the observations in growth and calcification are non‐negative, implying the acclimation capacity of many calcifiers to ocean acidification. This capacity can be mediated by phenotypic plasticity (e.g., physiological, mineralogical, structural, and molecular adjustments), transgenerational plasticity, increased food availability, or species interactions. The results suggest that the impacts of ocean acidification on calcifiers are less deleterious than initially thought as their adaptability has been underestimated. Therefore, in the forthcoming era of ocean acidification research, it is advocated that studying how marine organisms persist is as important as studying how they perish, and that future hypotheses and experimental designs are not constrained within the paradigm of negative effects.

In recent decades, global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However, there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies, but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3, 7], where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates, plankton, and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions, and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8]. We interrogated a database of >20,000 herbarium records of macroalgae collected in Australia since the 1940s and documented changes in communities and geographical distribution limits in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, consistent with rapid warming over the past five decades [9, 10]. We show that continued warming might drive potentially hundreds of species toward and beyond the edge of the Australian continent where sustained retreat is impossible. The potential for global extinctions is profound considering the many endemic seaweeds and seaweed-dependent marine organisms in temperate Australia.

AbstractThe paradigm that climate change will alter global marine biodiversity is one of the most widely accepted. Yet, its predictions remain difficult to test because laboratory systems are inadequate at incorporating ecological complexity, and common biodiversity metrics have varying sensitivity to detect change. Here, we test for the prevalence of global responses in biodiversity and community‐level change to future climate (acidification and warming) from studies at volcanic CO2 vents across four major global coastal ecosystems and studies in laboratory mesocosms. We detected globally replicable patterns of species replacements and community reshuffling under ocean acidification in major natural ecosystems, yet species diversity and other common biodiversity metrics were often insensitive to detect such community change, even under significant habitat loss. Where there was a lack of consistent patterns of biodiversity change, these were a function of similar numbers of studies observing negative versus positive species responses to climate stress. Laboratory studies showed weaker sensitivity to detect species replacements and community reshuffling in general. We conclude that common biodiversity metrics can be insensitive in revealing the anticipated effects of climate stress on biodiversity—even under significant biogenic habitat loss—and can mask widespread reshuffling of ecological communities in a future ocean. Although the influence of ocean acidification on community restructuring can be less evident than species loss, such changes can drive the dynamics of ecosystem stability or their functional change. Importantly, species identity matters, representing a substantial influence of future oceans.

Ocean acidification, chemical changes to the carbonate system of seawater, is emerging as a key environmental challenge accompanying global warming and other human‐induced perturbations. Considerable research seeks to define the scope and character of potential outcomes from this phenomenon, but a crucial impediment persists. Ecological theory, despite its power and utility, has been only peripherally applied to the problem. Here we sketch in broad strokes several areas where fundamental principles of ecology have the capacity to generate insight into ocean acidification's consequences. We focus on conceptual models that, when considered in the context of acidification, yield explicit predictions regarding a spectrum of population‐ and community‐level effects, from narrowing of species ranges and shifts in patterns of demographic connectivity, to modified consumer–resource relationships, to ascendance of weedy taxa and loss of species diversity. Although our coverage represents only a small fraction of the breadth of possible insights achievable from the application of theory, our hope is that this initial foray will spur expanded efforts to blend experiments with theoretical approaches. The result promises to be a deeper and more nuanced understanding of ocean acidification and the ecological changes it portends.

Ocean warming is anticipated to strengthen the persistence of turf-forming habitat, yet the concomitant elevation of grazer metabolic rates may accelerate per capita rates of consumption to counter turf predominance. Whilst this possibility of strong top-down control is supported by the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE), it assumes that consumer metabolism and consumption keep pace with increasing production. This assumption was tested by quantifying the metabolic rates of turfs and herbivorous gastropods under a series of elevated temperatures in which the ensuing production and consumption were observed. We discovered that as temperature increases towards near-future levels (year 2100), consumption rates of gastropods peak earlier than the rate of growth of producers. Hence, turfs have greater capacity to persist under near-future temperatures than the capacity for herbivores to counter their growth. These results suggest that whilst MTE predicts stronger top-down control, understanding whether consumer-producer responses are synchronous is key to assessing the future strength of top-down control.

AbstractDisturbance often results in small changes in community structure, but the probability of transitioning to contrasting states increases when multiple disturbances combine. Nevertheless, we have limited insights into the mechanisms that stabilise communities, particularly how perturbations can be absorbed without restructuring (i.e. resistance). Here, we expand the concept of compensatory dynamics to include countervailing mechanisms that absorb disturbances through trophic interactions. By definition, ‘compensation’ occurs if a specific disturbance stimulates a proportional countervailing response that eliminates its otherwise unchecked effect. We show that the compounding effects of disturbances from local to global scales (i.e. local canopy‐loss, eutrophication, ocean acidification) increasingly promote the expansion of weedy species, but that this response is countered by a proportional increase in grazing. Finally, we explore the relatively unrecognised role of compensatory effects, which are likely to maintain the resistance of communities to disturbance more deeply than current thinking allows.