• Energy Research

Les systèmes d'alerte précoce dans les domaines de la météo et du climat pour soutenir la prise de décision et l'intervention stratégique dans les secteurs clés (par exemple, l'eau, la santé, l'énergie, la gestion des risques de catastrophe et l'agriculture) reposent sur l'utilisation d'observations de la Terre et de modèles numériques nécessitant des ressources de supercalcul. Ces ressources sont maintenant principalement fournies par le biais d'installations de calcul à haute performance (HPC). En raison d'une augmentation mondiale de la disponibilité et de l'accessibilité des installations HPC de supercalcul, les modèles numériques qui peuvent maintenant être utilisés sont devenus plus complexes. En outre, les résolutions maintenant utilisées et réalisables ont considérablement augmenté. Le cadre de la cyber-infrastructure (CI) de la Communauté de développement de l'Afrique australe (SADC) vise à renforcer les capacités des réseaux régionaux de recherche et d'éducation, des infrastructures de partage de données et du capital humain formé – afin d'utiliser efficacement les ressources de la CI. Grâce à la mise en œuvre du cadre régional d'IC et des initiatives nationales, plusieurs États membres d'Afrique australe disposent désormais d'installations de CHP. La disponibilité de cette infrastructure dans la région offre des opportunités pour les domaines, les scientifiques du domaine et la collaboration à travers des projets de recherche et développement. Pour la météorologie, cela soutiendra davantage de scientifiques météorologiques et climatiques locaux et régionaux. Pour les services météorologiques, cela signifiera une capacité interne et nationale accrue à exécuter des modèles, avec moins de dépendance à l'égard des ressources externes des pays développés. Ce document traite d'un projet régional de mise en œuvre de la météo et du climat de l'IC de la SADC. Los sistemas de alerta temprana en las áreas meteorológica y climática para apoyar la toma de decisiones y la intervención estratégica en sectores clave (por ejemplo, agua, salud, energía, gestión del riesgo de desastres y agricultura) se basan en el uso de observaciones de la tierra y modelos numéricos que requieren recursos de supercomputación. Dichos recursos ahora se proporcionan principalmente a través de instalaciones de computación de alto rendimiento (HPC). Como resultado de un aumento global en la disponibilidad y accesibilidad de las instalaciones de HPC de supercomputación, los modelos numéricos que ahora se pueden emplear se han vuelto más complejos. Además, las resoluciones ahora utilizadas y alcanzables han aumentado significativamente. El Marco de Ciberinfraestructura (CI) de la Comunidad para el Desarrollo del África Meridional (SADC) tiene como objetivo desarrollar una mayor capacidad en las redes regionales de investigación y educación, la infraestructura de intercambio de datos y el capital humano capacitado, para hacer un uso eficiente y efectivo de los recursos de CI. A través de la implementación del marco regional de IC y las iniciativas nacionales, varios estados miembros del sur de África ahora cuentan con instalaciones de HPC. La disponibilidad de esta infraestructura en la región brinda oportunidades para dominios, científicos de dominio y colaboración a través de proyectos de investigación y desarrollo. Para la meteorología, esto apoyará a más científicos meteorológicos y climáticos locales y regionales. Para los servicios meteorológicos, esto significará una mayor capacidad interna y nacional para ejecutar modelos, con menos dependencia de los recursos externos de los países desarrollados. Este documento analiza un proyecto regional de implementación meteorológica y climática de la CI de la SADC. Early warning systems in the areas of weather and climate for supporting decision making and strategic intervention in key sectors (e.g. water, health, energy, disaster risk management, and agriculture) rely on the use of earth observations and numerical models that require supercomputing resources. Such resources are now primarily provided through High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities. As a result of a global increase in availability and accessibility of supercomputing HPC facilities, numerical models that can now be employed have become more complex. Furthermore, resolutions now used and achievable have increased significantly. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Cyber-Infrastructure (CI) Framework aims to build increased capacity in regional research and education networks, data sharing infrastructure and trained human capital – to make efficient and effective use of the CI resources. Through the implementation of the regional CI framework and national initiatives, several member states in Southern Africa now have HPC facilities. The availability of this infrastructure in the region provides opportunities for domains, domain scientists and collaboration through research and development projects. For meteorology, this will support more local and regional weather and climate scientists. For meteorological services, this will mean increased in-house and in-country capacity to run models, with less reliance on external resources from developed countries. This paper discusses a regional weather and climate implementation project of the SADC CI. تعتمد أنظمة الإنذار المبكر في مجالات الطقس والمناخ لدعم صنع القرار والتدخل الاستراتيجي في القطاعات الرئيسية (مثل المياه والصحة والطاقة وإدارة مخاطر الكوارث والزراعة) على استخدام عمليات رصد الأرض والنماذج العددية التي تتطلب موارد الحوسبة الفائقة. يتم توفير هذه الموارد الآن بشكل أساسي من خلال مرافق الحوسبة عالية الأداء. نتيجة للزيادة العالمية في توافر مرافق الحوسبة الفائقة عالية الأداء وإمكانية الوصول إليها، أصبحت النماذج الرقمية التي يمكن استخدامها الآن أكثر تعقيدًا. علاوة على ذلك، زادت القرارات المستخدمة الآن والقابلة للتحقيق بشكل كبير. يهدف إطار البنية التحتية السيبرانية للجماعة الإنمائية للجنوب الأفريقي (سادك) إلى بناء قدرات متزايدة في شبكات البحث والتعليم الإقليمية والبنية التحتية لتبادل البيانات ورأس المال البشري المدرب – لاستخدام موارد البنية التحتية السيبرانية بكفاءة وفعالية. من خلال تنفيذ إطار التحسين المستمر الإقليمي والمبادرات الوطنية، أصبح لدى العديد من الدول الأعضاء في الجنوب الأفريقي الآن مرافق خاصة بالقرصنة البشرية. يوفر توافر هذه البنية التحتية في المنطقة فرصًا للمجالات وعلماء المجال والتعاون من خلال مشاريع البحث والتطوير. بالنسبة للأرصاد الجوية، سيدعم هذا المزيد من علماء الطقس والمناخ المحليين والإقليميين. بالنسبة لخدمات الأرصاد الجوية، سيعني هذا زيادة القدرة الداخلية والقطرية على تشغيل النماذج، مع تقليل الاعتماد على الموارد الخارجية من البلدان المتقدمة. تناقش هذه الورقة مشروعًا إقليميًا لتنفيذ الطقس والمناخ لمبادرة الجماعة الإنمائية للجنوب الأفريقي.

The northernmost Limpopo Province is located in one of the warmest regions of South Africa, where the agricultural sector is prone to heat stress. The aim of this study was to explore air temperature and relative humidity trends for the region, which have implications for agricultural adaptation and management (amongst other sectors). In particular, we investigated seasonal, annual and decadal scale air temperature and relative humidity changes for the period 1950–2016. Positive temperature trends were recorded for this period, averaging +0.02 °C/year, with the strongest changes observed in mean maximum summer temperatures (+0.03 °C/year). Interannual temperature variability also increased over time, especially for the period 2010–2016, which presents probability densities of <50% for minimum temperatures. Positive relative humidity trends (+0.06%/year) were also recorded for the period 1980–2016, but proved to be the least predictable weather parameter, with probability densities of <0.5% across seasons for the study period. Considering the substantial interannual variability in temperature and relative humidity, there is clear increased risk for the agricultural sector, particularly for small-scale farmers who generally have limited capacity to adapt. Climate science focusing on the southern African region should continue to establish the impact of climate change and variability on specific small-scale farming systems and enterprises, with recommendations for strategic adaptation based on up-to-date evidence.Significance: Heat indices have increased, and variability in temperature and relative humidity has substantially increased over recent decades. Changes in air temperature and relative humidity have direct and/or indirect negative effects on sectors such as agriculture, leading to reduced productivity. The small-scale farming sector, which contributes significantly to national food security in developing countries, is the production system most exposed and vulnerable to observed changes/extremes in temperature and relative humidity. There is an urgent need to build capacity of small-scale farmers for appropriate adaptation to observed changes in climate based on up-to-date evidence.

AbstractThe two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse biodiversity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade‐offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co‐benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post‐2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale‐dependent; therefore, we showcase examples of local biodiversity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re‐emphasize the vital relationships between biodiversity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come.

There is potential for increased pesticide-related adverse health outcomes in the agricultural sector linked to adaptive increases in pesticide use necessitated, in part, by climate change-related increases in pest populations. To understand the role of adaptation practices in pesticide use and health risks, this study assessed Zimbabwean smallholder cotton farmers’ adaptive responses linked to their climate change perceptions. In depth interviews were conducted with 50 farmers who had been growing cotton for at least 30 years. The study identified farmers’ adaptation practices that increased their pesticide use, as well as those that presented opportunities for reducing pesticide use through non-pesticide-dependent adaptation pathways. The findings show that due to perceived climate change impacts, such as a shorter growing season, farmers were adopting a range of adaptive practices. These included changes in pest management practices, such as increasing pesticide spraying frequencies due to keeping ratoon crops, which were increasing farmers’ overall pesticide use. Such incremental adaptive practices are potentially maladaptive, as they may increase farmers’ pesticide-related health risks. Other practices, however, such as reducing cotton acreage and diversifying crops, resulting in transformational adaptation, suggest the existence of opportunities for decreasing overall pesticide use or totally eliminating pesticides from the farming system.

Aridity, characterized by low precipitation and high evaporative demand, affects ecosystems, agriculture, and societies, posing critical challenges in a changing climate.

AbstractThe need to adapt to climate change is now widely recognised as evidence of its impacts on social and natural systems grows and greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Yet efforts to adapt to climate change, as reported in the literature over the last decade and in selected case studies, have not led to substantial rates of implementation of adaptation actions despite substantial investments in adaptation science. Moreover, implemented actions have been mostly incremental and focused on proximate causes; there are far fewer reports of more systemic or transformative actions. We found that the nature and effectiveness of responses was strongly influenced by framing. Recent decision-oriented approaches that aim to overcome this situation are framed within a “pathways” metaphor to emphasise the need for robust decision making within adaptive processes in the face of uncertainty and inter-temporal complexity. However, to date, such “adaptation pathways” approaches have mostly focused on contexts with clearly identified decision-makers and unambiguous goals; as a result, they generally assume prevailing governance regimes are conducive for adaptation and hence constrain responses to proximate causes of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore a broader conceptualisation of “adaptation pathways” that draws on ‘pathways thinking’ in the sustainable development domain to consider the implications of path dependency, interactions between adaptation plans, vested interests and global change, and situations where values, interests, or institutions constrain societal responses to change. This re-conceptualisation of adaptation pathways aims to inform decision makers about integrating incremental actions on proximate causes with the transformative aspects of societal change. Case studies illustrate what this might entail. The paper ends with a call for further exploration of theory, methods and procedures to operationalise this broader conceptualisation of adaptation.