• Energy Research

AbstractThis preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100034).Despite being able to conclusively demonstrate local adaptation, we are still often unable to objectively determine the climatic drivers of local adaptation. Given the rapid rate of global change, understanding the climatic drivers of local adaptation is vital. Not only will this tell us which climate axes matter most to population fitness, but such knowledge is critical to inform management strategies such as translocation and targeted gene flow. While simple assessments of geographic trait variation are useful, geographic variation (and its associations with environment) may represent plastic, rather than evolved, differences. Additionally, the vast number of trait–environment combinations makes it difficult to determine which aspects of the environment populations adapt to. Here we argue that by incorporating a measure of landscape connectivity as a proxy for gene flow, we can differentiate between trait–environment relationships underpinned by genetic differences versus those that reflect phenotypic plasticity. By doing so, we can rapidly shorten the list of trait–environment combinations that may be of adaptive significance. We demonstrate how this reasoning can be applied using data on geographic trait variation in a lizard species from Australia's Wet Tropics rainforest. Our analysis reveals an overwhelming signal of local adaptation for the traits and environmental variables we investigated. Our analysis also allows us to rank environmental variables by the degree to which they appear to be driving local adaptation. Although encouraging, methodological issues remain: we point to these issue in the hope that the community can rapidly hone the methods we sketch here. The promise is a rapid and general approach to identifying the environmental drivers of local adaptation.

There is justified concern about the impact of global warming on the persistence of tropical ectotherms. There is also growing evidence for strong selection on climate-relevant physiological traits. Understanding the evolutionary potential of populations is especially important for low dispersal organisms in isolated populations, because these populations have little choice but to adapt. Despite this, direct estimates of heritability and genetic correlations for physiological traits in ectotherms-which will determine their evolutionary responses to selection-are sparse, especially for reptiles. Here we examine the heritabilities and genetic correlations for a set of four morphological and six climate-relevant physiological traits in an isolated population of an Australian rainforest lizard, Lampropholis coggeri. These traits show considerable variation across populations in this species, suggesting local adaptation. From laboratory crosses, we estimated very low to moderate heritability of temperature-related physiological traits (h2  0.51) for morphological traits. At the phenotypic level, there were positive associations among the morphological traits and between thermal limits. Growth rate was positively correlated with thermal limits, but there was no indication that morphology and physiology were linked in any other way. We found some support for a specialist-generalist trade-off in the thermal performance curve, but otherwise there was no evidence for evolutionary constraints, suggesting broadly labile multivariate trait structure. Our results indicate little potential to respond to selection on thermal traits in this population and provide new insights into the capacity of tropical ectotherms to adapt in situ to rapid climate change.

As climate change progresses, there is increasing focus on the possibility of using targeted gene flow (TGF, the movement of pre-adapted individuals into declining populations) as a management tool. Targeted gene flow is a relatively cheap, low-risk management option, and will almost certainly come into increased use over the coming decades. Before such action can be taken, however, we need to know where to find pre-adapted individuals. We argue that, for many species, the obvious place to look for this diversity is in peripheral isolates: isolated populations at the current edges of a species' range. Both evolutionary and ecological considerations suggest that the bulk of a species' adaptive variation may be contained in the total set of these peripheral isolates. Moreover, by exploring both evolutionary and ecological perspectives it becomes clear that we should be able to assess the potential value of each isolate using remotely sensed data and three measurable axes of variation in patch traits: population size, connectivity, and climatic environment. Locating the “sweet spot” in this trait space, however, remains a challenge. Throughout, we illustrate these ideas using Australia's Wet Tropics rainforests as a model system.

Understanding how natural populations will respond to rapid anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest challenges for ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Much research has focussed on whether physiological traits can evolve quickly enough under rapidly increasing temperatures. While the simple Breeder's equation helps to understand how extreme temperatures and genetic variation might drive within-population evolution under climate change, it does not consider two key areas: how different forms of phenotypic plasticity interact and variation among populations. Plasticity can modify the exposure to climatic extremes and the strength of selection from those extremes, while differences among populations provide adaptive diversity not apparent within them. Here, we focus on terrestrial vertebrates and, with a case study on a tropical lizard, demonstrate the complex interplay between spatial, genetic and plastic contributions to variation in climate-relevant physiological traits. We identify several problems that need to be better understood: which traits are under selection in a changing climate; the different forms of plasticity relevant to population persistence and rapid evolution; plastic versus genetic contributions to geographic variation in climate-associated traits and whether plasticity can be harnessed to promote persistence of species. Given ongoing uncertainties around whether natural populations can evolve rapidly enough to persist, we advocate the use of field trials aimed at increasing rates of adaptation, especially in systems known to be strongly impacted by human-driven changes in climate.

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

AbstractThe impact of climate change may be felt most keenly by tropical ectotherms. In these taxa, it is argued, thermal specialization means a given shift in temperature will have a larger effect on fitness. For species with limited dispersal ability, the impact of climate change depends on the capacity for their climate‐relevant traits to shift. Such shifts can occur through genetic adaptation, various forms of plasticity, or a combination of these processes. Here we assess the extent and causes of shifts in 7 physiological traits in a tropical lizard, the rainforest sunskink (Lampropholis coggeri). Two populations were sampled that differ from each other in both climate and physiological traits. We compared trait values in each animal soon after field collection versus following acclimation to laboratory conditions. We also compared trait values between populations in: (i) recently field‐collected animals; (ii) the same animals following laboratory acclimation; and (iii) the laboratory‐reared offspring of these animals. Our results reveal high trait lability, driven primarily by acclimation and local adaptation. By contrast, developmental plasticity, resulting from incubation temperature, had little to no effect on most traits. These results suggest that, while specialized, tropical ectotherms may be capable of rapid shifts in climate‐relevant traits.

AbstractThe biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction‐risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change—such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios—with predictions of trophic cascades and co‐extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real‐world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real‐world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co‐extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real‐world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co‐extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co‐extinction (or those that might trigger co‐extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co‐extinction cascades and additional species losses.