• Energy Research

AbstractWe implemented a spatial application of a previously evaluated model of soilGHGemissions,ECOSSE, in the United Kingdom to examine the impacts to 2050 of land‐use transitions from existing land use, rotational cropland, permanent grassland or woodland, to six bioenergy crops; three ‘first‐generation’ energy crops: oilseed rape, wheat and sugar beet, and three ‘second‐generation’ energy crops:Miscanthus, short rotation coppice willow (SRC) and short rotation forestry poplar (SRF). Conversion of rotational crops toMiscanthus,SRCandSRFand conversion of permanent grass toSRFshow beneficial changes in soilGHGbalance over a significant area. Conversion of permanent grass toMiscanthus, permanent grass toSRFand forest toSRFshows detrimental changes in soilGHGbalance over a significant area. Conversion of permanent grass to wheat, oilseed rape, sugar beet andSRCand all conversions from forest show large detrimental changes in soilGHGbalance over most of the United Kingdom, largely due to moving from uncultivated soil to regular cultivation. Differences in netGHGemissions between climate scenarios to 2050 were not significant. Overall,SRFoffers the greatest beneficial impact on soilGHGbalance. These results provide one criterion for selection of bioenergy crops and do not considerGHGemission increases/decreases resulting from displaced food production, bio‐physical factors (e.g. the energy density of the crop) and socio‐economic factors (e.g. expenditure on harvesting equipment). Given that the soilGHGbalance is dominated by change in soil organic carbon (SOC) with the difference amongMiscanthus,SRCandSRFlargely determined by yield, a target for management of perennial energy crops is to achieve the best possible yield using the most appropriate energy crop and cultivar for the local situation.

Limited information on likely supply and spatial yield of bioenergy crops exists for the UK. Here, productivities are reported of poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), using data from a large 49-site yield trial network. A partial least-squares regression technique was used to upscale actual field trial observations across England and Wales. Spatial productivity was then assessed under different land-use scenarios. Mean modelled yields ranged between 4.9 and 10.7 oven-dry tonnes (odt) ha(-1) yr(-1). Yields were generally higher in willow than in poplar, reflecting the susceptibility of older poplar genotypes to rust and their tendency for single stem dominance. Replacing 10% of arable land, 20% of improved grassland and 100% of set-aside grassland in England and Wales with the three most productive genotypes would yield 13 Modt of biomass annually (supplying 7% of UK electricity production or 48% of UK combined heat and power (CHP) production). Results show existing SRC genotypes have the immediate potential to be an important component of a mixed portfolio of renewables and that, in future, as new and improved genotypes become available, higher yields could extend this potential further.

Biomass from lignocellulosic energy crops can contribute to primary energy supply in the short term in heat and electricity applications and in the longer term in transport fuel applications. This paper estimates the optimal feedstock allocation of herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic energy crops for England and Wales based on empirical productivity models. Yield maps for Miscanthus, willow and poplar, constrained by climatic, soil and land use factors, are used to estimate the potential resource. An energy crop supply-cost curve is estimated based on the resource distribution and associated production costs. The spatial resource model is then used to inform the supply of biomass to geographically distributed demand centres, with co-firing plants used as an illustration. Finally, the potential contribution of energy crops to UK primary energy and renewable energy targets is discussed.

AbstractTo achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial energy crops requires farmers to select these crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision‐making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm‐scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial energy crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial energy crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short‐rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional crops. These are used to configure location specific farm‐scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for energy crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm‐gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each energy crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial energy crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.

AbstractAccurate estimation of the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of bioenergy crops requires the integration of a significant component of spatially varying information. In particular, crop yield and soil carbon (C) stocks are variables which are generally soil type and climate dependent. Since gaseous emissions from soil C depend on current C stocks, which in turn are related to previous land management it is important to consider both previous and proposed future land use in any C accounting assessment. We have conducted a spatially explicit study for England and Wales, coupling empirical yield maps with the RothC soil C turnover model to simulate soil C dynamics. We estimate soil C changes under proposed planting of four bioenergy crops, Miscanthus (Miscanthus×giganteus), short rotation coppice (SRC) poplar (Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray ×P. trichocarpa, var. Trichobel), winter wheat, and oilseed rape. This is then related to the former land use – arable, pasture, or forest/seminatural, and the outputs are then assessed in the context of a life cycle analysis (LCA) for each crop. By offsetting emissions from management under the previous land use, and considering fossil fuel C displaced, the GHG balance is estimated for each of the 12 land use change transitions associated with replacing arable, grassland, or forest/seminatural land, with each of the four bioenergy crops. Miscanthus and SRC are likely to have a mostly beneficial impact in reducing GHG emissions, while oilseed rape and winter wheat have either a net GHG cost, or only a marginal benefit. Previous land use is important and can make the difference between the bioenergy crop being beneficial or worse than the existing land use in terms of GHG balance.

AbstractThe paper presents a model system, which consists of a partial equilibrium model and process‐based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to determine the optimal distributions of both Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) and short rotation coppice willow (SRC) (Salix. viminalis L. x S. viminalis var Joruun) in Great Britain (GB), as well as their potential contribution to meet heat and electricity demand in GB. Results show that the potential contribution of Miscanthus and SRC to heat and electricity demand is significant. Without considering farm‐scale economic constraints, Miscanthus and SRC could generate, in an economically competitive way compared with other energy generation costs, 224 800 GWh yr−1 heat and 112 500 GWh yr−1 electricity, with 8 Mha of available land under Miscanthus and SRC, accounting for 66% of total heat demand and 62% of total electricity demand respectively. Given the pattern of heat and electricity demand, and the relative yields of Miscanthus and SRC in different parts of GB, Miscanthus is mainly favoured in the Midlands and areas in the South of GB, whereas SRC is favoured in Scotland, the Midlands and areas in the South of GB.