• Energy Research

Aim: This paper aims to describe an approach to develop a simulation model for investigating regional energy markets. Therefore the so called Cellular Approach is combined with the approach of Agent-Based Modelling.Design / Research methods: The model is built as a bottom-up approach for integral load management. Thus, supply factors such as limitations in generation are integrated directly and display flexibility. Thereby each market participant has its own economic interest. By the use of specific behaviour patterns and learning effects each agent in the model can act individually. This enables the market model to simulate how actors behave in changing situations. Conclusions / findings: The model shown in this paper provides an alternative to considerations of energy supply systems via equation-based optimization models. The combination of these two approaches enhances to observe two central aspects of the German energy turnaround, decentralisation and the consumers changing role at the energy market. Originality / value of the article: The Cellular Approach offers potential benefits for integrating renewable energy sources in regional power supply. Often discussed on a technical level, this paper focuses on the economical side of this topic. Moreover, differing to other research activities usually using optimization techniques, an Agent-Based Model is formulated to simulate a regional energy market. In the combination of a supply system primarily based on renewable energy sources and enhanced with different types of energy storage it is possible to simulate a supply system of the future.

The energy transition in Germany takes part in decentral structures. With the ongoing integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) into the electricity supply system, supply-side is therefore becoming increasingly decentral and volatile due to the specific generation characteristics. A rather inflexible demand-side, on the other hand, increases the effort to gain the necessary equilibrium between generation and consumption. This paper discusses how consumer behaviour can be influenced by real-time pricing to align demand with generation. Therefore, a combination of two different approaches is used, (I) The Cellular Approach (CA) and (II) Agent Based Modelling (ABM). A model is set up considering a regional energy market, where regional electricity products can be traded peer-to-peer regarding each consumer’s preferences. The observation is made for a whole distribution grid including all types of consumers. The investigations show that energy purchases can be stimulated individually by a flexible pricing mechanism and met preferences. Moreover, benefits occur for the whole region and potentials arise to smooth the exchange balance to the superordinate grid level. Running the model for one entire year in a conservative generation scenario, hours of oversupply could be reduced by 18% and the consumption of green electricity generated regionally could be increased by over 125 MWh within the region itself, in comparison to a base scenario.

This paper explores the impact of an increasing number of prosumers in electricity supply systems and investigates how market mechanisms can mitigate the negative effects. The Regional Energy Market Model simulates a supply system based on cellular structures, employing agent-based modeling to capture individual behaviors and simulate real market dynamics. This study includes various supply scenarios, such as a solely photovoltaic scenario and a technically diversified scenario with biogas-fueled combined heat and power units. For each scenario, fixed and flexible pricing scenarios are simulated to analyze their effects. The findings reveal that systems heavily reliant on photovoltaics experience negative effects at certain points due to seasonal limitations, while technically diversified supply scenarios demonstrate fewer drawbacks. Flexible pricing systems stimulate demand in a manner beneficial to the system, creating regional added value, and contributing to the balance between generation and consumption, depending on the supply scenario. However, the study underscores that economic incentives alone are insufficient for balancing generation and consumption. The results highlight the importance of exploring opportunities through the interplay of economic incentive mechanisms and technical possibilities.