• Energy Research

Summary: Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow. Science for society: Communities and businesses nationwide have set ambitious goals to combat climate change by generating 100% of their electricity from carbon-free or renewable energy sources. Until now, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the possible pathways to achieve these goals on the scale needed to power the largest US cities. Here, we present findings from the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100), a thorough and wide-reaching assessment of the factors needed to make a fully renewable utility system operate reliably and deliver adequate electricity to more than 4 million residents. Our analysis uses detailed models of the city’s power grid to examine not just renewable resource options and technical solutions related to generation, transmission, and distribution systems but also the balance of supply and demand, variability and reliability, and affordability and viability—all through the lens of changing demographics and climate conditions.

Abstract To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM2.5 concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.

Boilers are combustion devices that provide process heat and are integral to many industrial facilities. Historically, outside of the pulp and paper industry, most boilers burned fossil fuels, although interest in decarbonization has been leading to an increased use of renewable fuels in boilers. These boilers, including those in the biorefineries, are often large sources of air pollutant emissions, and the characterization of these emissions is critical to obtaining air permits and ensuring protection of the surrounding air quality. Several industrial boilers and new biorefineries allow utilization of biomass-derived fuels (e.g. wastewater sludge, lignin, etc.) produced during their operation as a fuel for the boiler to meet process energy needs. However, there is limited empirical data on emission factors for the burning of unconventional fuels, such as solid-gas mixtures containing biomass residues. To fill this gap, we carry out a comprehensive data survey, collecting information on emission factors for boilers burning either a single or a mixture of solid and gaseous biomass-derived fuels. We review multiple hard-to-obtain and unconventional data sources, such as air permit applications, stack test data, and industry-sponsored data collection efforts, to compile emission factors for biomass-derived fuels. We then compare this data with wood residue emission factors from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s AP-42 emission factor database. Our results indicate that the emission factors for boilers burning unconventional fuels vary widely depending on the fuel composition, boiler type, and fuel characteristics. Overall, we find that median emission factors of selected biomass-derived fuels are typically lower than those of wood residue boilers in AP-42. The information collected herein could be useful to permitting agencies and industries utilizing boilers who may want to reduce the carbon impact of their facilities by combusting biomass-derived wastes for process energy needs, for more accurate emission estimation for permitting. Implications: Emission factors are often used for air permitting, specifically for emission estimation purposes. This study carries out a comprehensive data survey of emission factors burning unconventional biomass-derived fuels from underutilized sources such as air permits, stack test data, and industry-led efforts, and compare the results to EPA’s wood residue emission factor database. The results from this study can be used can be used by multiple stakeholders such as air permitting agencies, industries burning biomass-derived fuels, and biorefineries, that utilize more advanced boiler technologies. The findings can help mitigate risks to industry owners and operators and helps to avoid delays in obtaining the required air permits that arise due to inappropriate emission estimates in permit applications.