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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2020Embargo end date: 22 Mar 2021 GermanyPublisher:American Geophysical Union (AGU) Bruno Merz; Mehedi Hasan; Poulomi Ganguli; Poulomi Ganguli; Dominik Paprotny; Andreas Güntner;AbstractCompound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea‐level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high‐resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula‐based approach. The RCM‐forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040–2069) compared to the reference period (1985–2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020ef001752&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen gold 38 citations 38 popularity Top 1% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020ef001752&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2015 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Funded by:AKA | Global green-blue water s...AKA| Global green-blue water scarcity trajectories and measures for adaptation: linking the Holocene to the Anthropocene (SCART)Manh, Nguen Van; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Hung, Nguyen Nghia; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel; Heiko;Abstract The Mekong Delta is under threat due to human activities that are endangering livelihood of millions of people. Hydropower development, climate change and the combined effects of sea level rise and deltaic subsidence are the main drivers impacting future flow regimes and sedimentation patterns in the Mekong Delta. We develop a sensitivity-based approach to assess the response of the floodplain hydrology and sediment dynamics in the delta to these drivers. A quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of suspended sediment dynamics is used to simulate the sediment transport and sediment deposition in the delta, including Tonle Sap Lake, for a baseline (2000–2010) and a future (2050–2060) period. For each driver we derive a plausible range of future states and discretize it into different levels, resulting in 216 combinations. Our results thus cover all plausible future pathways of sediment dynamics in the delta based on current knowledge. Our results indicate that hydropower development dominates the changes in floodplain sediment dynamics of the Mekong Delta, while sea level rise has the smallest effect. The floodplains of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are much more sensitive to the changes compared to the other subsystems of the delta. The median changes of the three drivers combined indicate that the inundation extent would increase slightly, but the overall floodplain sedimentation would decrease by approximately 40%, and the sediment load to the South China Sea would diminish to half of the current rates. The maximum changes in all drivers would mean a nearly 90% reduction of delta sedimentation and a 95% reduction of the sediment reaching the sea. Our findings provide new and valuable information on the possible future development of floodplain hydraulics and sedimentation in the Mekong Delta and identify the areas that are most vulnerable to these changes.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGlobal and Planetary ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 156 citations 156 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGlobal and Planetary ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euResearch data keyboard_double_arrow_right Dataset 2020Publisher:GFZ Data Services Authors: Kemter, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert;This dataset contains catchment average time series of five meteorological or hydrological parameters for 3872 hydrometric stations across Europe from 1960-2010. The parameters are: rainfall, soil moisture saturation, snowmelt, snow cover and convective conditions. All parameters have a daily resolution and were derived from a 0.11x0.11° reanalysis dataset. Daily averages were calculated from the pixels within each catchment, weighted by the fraction of pixel area that lies within the respective catchment. This dataset was originally created for the classification of floods by their generating process, but is also suitable for different hydrological studies. The dataset consists of two types of files: (1) The station metadata, which contains latitude, longitude, catchment area and an ID for each hydrometric station.(2) The five time series datasets, which contain one value for each station ID and each day from 1960-01-01 to 2010-12-31.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.5880/gfz.4.4.2020.002&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!
more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.5880/gfz.4.4.2020.002&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Journal 2015 Netherlands, Netherlands, Netherlands, GermanyPublisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Funded by:EC | TURASEC| TURASde Moel, Hans; Jongman, B.; Kreibich, H.; Merz, B.; Penning-Rowsell, E.; Ward, P.J.;pmid: 30197555
pmc: PMC6108001
Managing flood risk, i.e. both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. As a result, a priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices. Many methodologies have been set up, ranging from global risk assessments for the world as a whole, to local assessments for a particular stretch of a river/coast or small town. Most assessment frameworks generally follow a similar approach, but there are also notable differences between assessments at different spatial scales. This review article examines these differences, for instance those related to the methodology, use of assessments and uncertainties. From this review, future research needs are identified in order to improve flood risk assessments at different scales. At global/continental scale, there is a clear need for harmonised information on flood defences to improve assessments. Furthermore, inclusions of indirect economic effects at the macro-/meso-scale would give a better indication of the total effects of catastrophic flooding. At the meso-/micro-scale, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the effects of flooding on critical infrastructures, given their importance to society, the economy, emergency management and reconstruction. An overarching theme at all scales is the validation of flood risk assessments, which is often limited. More detailed post-disaster information would allow for improved calibration, validation and thus performance of flood risk models. Lastly, the link between spatial scales also deserves attention, for instance up- or downscaling methodologies.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleLicense: CC BYData sources: UnpayWallMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleData sources: CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggregator)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeJournalData sources: Microsoft Academic Graphhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s110...Other literature typeData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 268 citations 268 popularity Top 0.1% influence Top 1% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
visibility 5visibility views 5 download downloads 9 Powered bymore_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleLicense: CC BYData sources: UnpayWallMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleData sources: CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggregator)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeJournalData sources: Microsoft Academic Graphhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s110...Other literature typeData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2023 Germany, GermanyPublisher:American Geophysical Union (AGU) Funded by:DFG, DFG | Natural Hazards and Risks...DFG ,DFG| Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World (NatRisk-Change)Kemter, Matthias; Marwan, Norbert; Villarini, Gabriele; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert; 3 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany; Villarini, Gabriele; 4 IIHR—Hydroscience & Engineering University of Iowa Iowa City IA USA; Merz, Bruno; 1 Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany;doi: 10.1029/2021wr031673
AbstractTrends in flood magnitudes vary across the conterminous USA (CONUS). There have been attempts to identify what controls these regionally varying trends, but these attempts were limited to certain—for example, climatic—variables or to smaller regions, using different methods and datasets each time. Here we attribute the trends in annual maximum streamflow for 4,390 gauging stations across the CONUS in the period 1960–2010, while using a novel combination of methods and an unprecedented variety of potential controlling variables to allow large‐scale comparisons and minimize biases. Using process‐based flood classification and complex networks, we find 10 distinct clusters of catchments with similar flood behavior. We compile a set of 31 hydro‐climatological and land use variables as predictors for 10 separate Random Forest models, allowing us to find the main controls the flood magnitude trends for each cluster. By using Accumulated Local Effect plots, we can understand how these controls influence the trends in the flood magnitude. We show that hydro‐climatologic changes and land use are of similar importance for flood magnitude trends across the CONUS. Static land use variables are more important than their trends, suggesting that land use is able to attenuate (forested areas) or amplify (urbanized areas) the effects of climatic changes on flood magnitudes. For some variables, we find opposing effects in different regions, showing that flood trend controls are highly dependent on regional characteristics and that our novel approach is necessary to attribute flood magnitude trends reliably at the continental scale while maintaining sensitivity to regional controls.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2021wr031673&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 7 citations 7 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2021wr031673&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2021Embargo end date: 27 Jun 2022 GermanyPublisher:Wiley Funded by:DFG | Space-Time Dynamics of Ex..., DFGDFG| Space-Time Dynamics of Extreme Floods (SPATE) ,DFGViet Dung Nguyen; Bruno Merz; Yeshewatesfa Hundecha; Uwe Haberlandt; Sergiy Vorogushyn;AbstractIn this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of a stochastic multi‐site, multi‐variate weather generator at the scale of entire Germany and parts of the neighbouring countries covering the major German river basins Elbe, Upper Danube, Rhine, Weser and Ems with a total area of approximately 580,000 km2. The regional weather generator, which is based on a first‐order multi‐variate auto‐regressive model, is setup using 53‐year long daily observational data at 528 locations. The performance is evaluated by investigating the ability of the weather generator to replicate various important statistical properties of the observed variables including precipitation occurrence and dry/wet transition probabilities, mean daily and extreme precipitation, multi‐day precipitation sums, spatial correlation structure, areal precipitation, mean daily and extreme temperature and solar radiation. We explore two marginal distributions for daily precipitation amount: mixed Gamma‐Generalized Pareto and extended Generalized Pareto. Furthermore, we introduce a new procedure to estimate the spatial correlation matrix and model mean daily temperature and solar radiation. The extensive evaluation reveals that the weather generator is greatly capable of capturing most of the crucial properties of the weather variables, particularly of extreme precipitation at individual locations. Some deficiencies are detected in capturing spatial precipitation correlation structure that leads to an overestimation of areal precipitation extremes. Further improvement of the spatial correlation structure is envisaged for future research. The mixed marginal model found to outperform the extended Generalized Pareto in our case. The use of power transformation in combination with normal distribution significantly improves the performance for non‐precipitation variables. The weather generator can be used to generate synthetic event footprints for large‐scale trans‐basin flood risk assessment.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)International Journal of ClimatologyArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/joc.7107&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 11 citations 11 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)International Journal of ClimatologyArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/joc.7107&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object , Other literature type , Journal 2019 Austria, GermanyPublisher:Public Library of Science (PLoS) Funded by:DFG | Natural Hazards and Risks..., DFGDFG| Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World (NatRisk-Change) ,DFGTobias Sieg; Tobias Sieg; Kristin Vogel; Reinhard Mechler; Bruno Merz; Thomas Schinko; Heidi Kreibich;Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate. Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe, 708
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1371/journal.pone.0212932&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu35 citations 35 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1371/journal.pone.0212932&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Journal 2020Embargo end date: 20 Jul 2021 GermanyPublisher:American Geophysical Union (AGU) Funded by:EC | SYSTEM-RISK, DFG | Space-Time Dynamics of Ex..., DFG | Natural Hazards and Risks... +2 projectsEC| SYSTEM-RISK ,DFG| Space-Time Dynamics of Extreme Floods (SPATE) ,DFG| Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World (NatRisk-Change) ,DFG ,FWF| Decadal changes of flood probabilitiesBruno Merz; Sergiy Vorogushyn; Günter Blöschl; Norbert Marwan; Matthias Kemter; Matthias Kemter;AbstractThe magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes in the spatial coverage or extent of individual floods has not been clear. We analyze flood magnitudes and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across Europe over the past five decades and classify each flood based on antecedent weather conditions. We find positive correlations between flood magnitudes and extents for 95% of the stations. In central Europe and the British Isles, the association of increasing trends in magnitudes and extents is due to a magnitude‐extent correlation of precipitation and soil moisture along with a shift in the flood generating processes. The alignment of trends in flood magnitudes and extents highlights the increasing importance of transnational flood risk management.
Publication Database... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020gl087464&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen gold 88 citations 88 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
more_vert Publication Database... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020gl087464&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal , Other literature type 2020Embargo end date: 08 Jul 2022 Netherlands, Finland, GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Funded by:EC | SOS.aquaterra, AKA | Water and vulnerability i...EC| SOS.aquaterra ,AKA| Water and vulnerability in fragile societies / Consortium: WATVULNguyen, Van Khanh Triet; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Hoang, Long Phi; Duy, Nguyen Le; Tran, Dung Duc; Anh, Tran Tuan; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel; Heiko;pmid: 33167297
The annual flood pulse of the Mekong River is crucial to sustain agriculture production, nutrition, and the livelihood of millions of people living in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta (VMD). However, climate change impacts on precipitation, temperature and sea-level combined with land subsidence, upstream hydropower development, and water infrastructures (i.e. high-dykes construction) are altering the hydrological regime of the VMD. This study investigates future changes in flood hazard and agricultural production caused by these different scales of human-induced stresses. A quasi- two-dimensional (quasi-2D) hydrodynamic model was used to simulate eight scenarios representing the individual and compound impacts of these drivers for a baseline (1971-2000) and future (2036-2065) period. The scenarios map the most likely future pathway of climate change (RCP 4.5) combined with the best available Mekong upstream hydropower development, and land subsidence scenarios as well as the current delta development plan. We found that sea-level rise and land subsidence would cause the highest changes in flood hazard and damage to rice crop, followed by hydropower and climate change impacts. Expansion of high-dyke areas in two northernmost delta provinces (An Giang and Dong Thap) would have the smallest impact. The combination of all modelled drivers is projected to increase delta inundation extent by 20%, accompanied with prolonging submergence of 1-2 months, and 2-3 times increase in annual flood damage to rice crops in the flood-prone areas of the VMD. These findings of likely increasing risk of tidal induced flood hazard and damage call for well-planned adaptation and mitigation measures, both structural and non-structural.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesAaltodoc Publication ArchiveArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Aaltodoc Publication ArchiveThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)The Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: CrossrefThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 72 citations 72 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesAaltodoc Publication ArchiveArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Aaltodoc Publication ArchiveThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)The Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: CrossrefThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2020Embargo end date: 22 Mar 2021 GermanyPublisher:American Geophysical Union (AGU) Bruno Merz; Mehedi Hasan; Poulomi Ganguli; Poulomi Ganguli; Dominik Paprotny; Andreas Güntner;AbstractCompound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea‐level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high‐resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula‐based approach. The RCM‐forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040–2069) compared to the reference period (1985–2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020ef001752&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen gold 38 citations 38 popularity Top 1% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020ef001752&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2015 GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Funded by:AKA | Global green-blue water s...AKA| Global green-blue water scarcity trajectories and measures for adaptation: linking the Holocene to the Anthropocene (SCART)Manh, Nguen Van; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Hung, Nguyen Nghia; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel; Heiko;Abstract The Mekong Delta is under threat due to human activities that are endangering livelihood of millions of people. Hydropower development, climate change and the combined effects of sea level rise and deltaic subsidence are the main drivers impacting future flow regimes and sedimentation patterns in the Mekong Delta. We develop a sensitivity-based approach to assess the response of the floodplain hydrology and sediment dynamics in the delta to these drivers. A quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of suspended sediment dynamics is used to simulate the sediment transport and sediment deposition in the delta, including Tonle Sap Lake, for a baseline (2000–2010) and a future (2050–2060) period. For each driver we derive a plausible range of future states and discretize it into different levels, resulting in 216 combinations. Our results thus cover all plausible future pathways of sediment dynamics in the delta based on current knowledge. Our results indicate that hydropower development dominates the changes in floodplain sediment dynamics of the Mekong Delta, while sea level rise has the smallest effect. The floodplains of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are much more sensitive to the changes compared to the other subsystems of the delta. The median changes of the three drivers combined indicate that the inundation extent would increase slightly, but the overall floodplain sedimentation would decrease by approximately 40%, and the sediment load to the South China Sea would diminish to half of the current rates. The maximum changes in all drivers would mean a nearly 90% reduction of delta sedimentation and a 95% reduction of the sediment reaching the sea. Our findings provide new and valuable information on the possible future development of floodplain hydraulics and sedimentation in the Mekong Delta and identify the areas that are most vulnerable to these changes.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGlobal and Planetary ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 156 citations 156 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGlobal and Planetary ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: Crossrefadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.001&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euResearch data keyboard_double_arrow_right Dataset 2020Publisher:GFZ Data Services Authors: Kemter, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert;This dataset contains catchment average time series of five meteorological or hydrological parameters for 3872 hydrometric stations across Europe from 1960-2010. The parameters are: rainfall, soil moisture saturation, snowmelt, snow cover and convective conditions. All parameters have a daily resolution and were derived from a 0.11x0.11° reanalysis dataset. Daily averages were calculated from the pixels within each catchment, weighted by the fraction of pixel area that lies within the respective catchment. This dataset was originally created for the classification of floods by their generating process, but is also suitable for different hydrological studies. The dataset consists of two types of files: (1) The station metadata, which contains latitude, longitude, catchment area and an ID for each hydrometric station.(2) The five time series datasets, which contain one value for each station ID and each day from 1960-01-01 to 2010-12-31.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.5880/gfz.4.4.2020.002&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu0 citations 0 popularity Average influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!
more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.5880/gfz.4.4.2020.002&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Journal 2015 Netherlands, Netherlands, Netherlands, GermanyPublisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Funded by:EC | TURASEC| TURASde Moel, Hans; Jongman, B.; Kreibich, H.; Merz, B.; Penning-Rowsell, E.; Ward, P.J.;pmid: 30197555
pmc: PMC6108001
Managing flood risk, i.e. both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. As a result, a priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices. Many methodologies have been set up, ranging from global risk assessments for the world as a whole, to local assessments for a particular stretch of a river/coast or small town. Most assessment frameworks generally follow a similar approach, but there are also notable differences between assessments at different spatial scales. This review article examines these differences, for instance those related to the methodology, use of assessments and uncertainties. From this review, future research needs are identified in order to improve flood risk assessments at different scales. At global/continental scale, there is a clear need for harmonised information on flood defences to improve assessments. Furthermore, inclusions of indirect economic effects at the macro-/meso-scale would give a better indication of the total effects of catastrophic flooding. At the meso-/micro-scale, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the effects of flooding on critical infrastructures, given their importance to society, the economy, emergency management and reconstruction. An overarching theme at all scales is the validation of flood risk assessments, which is often limited. More detailed post-disaster information would allow for improved calibration, validation and thus performance of flood risk models. Lastly, the link between spatial scales also deserves attention, for instance up- or downscaling methodologies.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleLicense: CC BYData sources: UnpayWallMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleData sources: CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggregator)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeJournalData sources: Microsoft Academic Graphhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s110...Other literature typeData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 268 citations 268 popularity Top 0.1% influence Top 1% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
visibility 5visibility views 5 download downloads 9 Powered bymore_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleLicense: CC BYData sources: UnpayWallMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticleData sources: CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggregator)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2015Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeArticle . 2015Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeJournalData sources: Microsoft Academic Graphhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s110...Other literature typeData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2023 Germany, GermanyPublisher:American Geophysical Union (AGU) Funded by:DFG, DFG | Natural Hazards and Risks...DFG ,DFG| Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World (NatRisk-Change)Kemter, Matthias; Marwan, Norbert; Villarini, Gabriele; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert; 3 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany; Villarini, Gabriele; 4 IIHR—Hydroscience & Engineering University of Iowa Iowa City IA USA; Merz, Bruno; 1 Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany;doi: 10.1029/2021wr031673
AbstractTrends in flood magnitudes vary across the conterminous USA (CONUS). There have been attempts to identify what controls these regionally varying trends, but these attempts were limited to certain—for example, climatic—variables or to smaller regions, using different methods and datasets each time. Here we attribute the trends in annual maximum streamflow for 4,390 gauging stations across the CONUS in the period 1960–2010, while using a novel combination of methods and an unprecedented variety of potential controlling variables to allow large‐scale comparisons and minimize biases. Using process‐based flood classification and complex networks, we find 10 distinct clusters of catchments with similar flood behavior. We compile a set of 31 hydro‐climatological and land use variables as predictors for 10 separate Random Forest models, allowing us to find the main controls the flood magnitude trends for each cluster. By using Accumulated Local Effect plots, we can understand how these controls influence the trends in the flood magnitude. We show that hydro‐climatologic changes and land use are of similar importance for flood magnitude trends across the CONUS. Static land use variables are more important than their trends, suggesting that land use is able to attenuate (forested areas) or amplify (urbanized areas) the effects of climatic changes on flood magnitudes. For some variables, we find opposing effects in different regions, showing that flood trend controls are highly dependent on regional characteristics and that our novel approach is necessary to attribute flood magnitude trends reliably at the continental scale while maintaining sensitivity to regional controls.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2021wr031673&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 7 citations 7 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)Article . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2023License: CC BY NCData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2021wr031673&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2021Embargo end date: 27 Jun 2022 GermanyPublisher:Wiley Funded by:DFG | Space-Time Dynamics of Ex..., DFGDFG| Space-Time Dynamics of Extreme Floods (SPATE) ,DFGViet Dung Nguyen; Bruno Merz; Yeshewatesfa Hundecha; Uwe Haberlandt; Sergiy Vorogushyn;AbstractIn this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of a stochastic multi‐site, multi‐variate weather generator at the scale of entire Germany and parts of the neighbouring countries covering the major German river basins Elbe, Upper Danube, Rhine, Weser and Ems with a total area of approximately 580,000 km2. The regional weather generator, which is based on a first‐order multi‐variate auto‐regressive model, is setup using 53‐year long daily observational data at 528 locations. The performance is evaluated by investigating the ability of the weather generator to replicate various important statistical properties of the observed variables including precipitation occurrence and dry/wet transition probabilities, mean daily and extreme precipitation, multi‐day precipitation sums, spatial correlation structure, areal precipitation, mean daily and extreme temperature and solar radiation. We explore two marginal distributions for daily precipitation amount: mixed Gamma‐Generalized Pareto and extended Generalized Pareto. Furthermore, we introduce a new procedure to estimate the spatial correlation matrix and model mean daily temperature and solar radiation. The extensive evaluation reveals that the weather generator is greatly capable of capturing most of the crucial properties of the weather variables, particularly of extreme precipitation at individual locations. Some deficiencies are detected in capturing spatial precipitation correlation structure that leads to an overestimation of areal precipitation extremes. Further improvement of the spatial correlation structure is envisaged for future research. The mixed marginal model found to outperform the extended Generalized Pareto in our case. The use of power transformation in combination with normal distribution significantly improves the performance for non‐precipitation variables. The weather generator can be used to generate synthetic event footprints for large‐scale trans‐basin flood risk assessment.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)International Journal of ClimatologyArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/joc.7107&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 11 citations 11 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)International Journal of ClimatologyArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedLicense: CC BYData sources: CrossrefGFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2021 . Peer-reviewedPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2021License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/joc.7107&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object , Other literature type , Journal 2019 Austria, GermanyPublisher:Public Library of Science (PLoS) Funded by:DFG | Natural Hazards and Risks..., DFGDFG| Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World (NatRisk-Change) ,DFGTobias Sieg; Tobias Sieg; Kristin Vogel; Reinhard Mechler; Bruno Merz; Thomas Schinko; Heidi Kreibich;Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate. Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe, 708
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1371/journal.pone.0212932&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu35 citations 35 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesPublikationsserver der Universität PotsdamArticle . 2019License: CC BYData sources: Publikationsserver der Universität Potsdamadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1371/journal.pone.0212932&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Journal 2020Embargo end date: 20 Jul 2021 GermanyPublisher:American Geophysical Union (AGU) Funded by:EC | SYSTEM-RISK, DFG | Space-Time Dynamics of Ex..., DFG | Natural Hazards and Risks... +2 projectsEC| SYSTEM-RISK ,DFG| Space-Time Dynamics of Extreme Floods (SPATE) ,DFG| Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World (NatRisk-Change) ,DFG ,FWF| Decadal changes of flood probabilitiesBruno Merz; Sergiy Vorogushyn; Günter Blöschl; Norbert Marwan; Matthias Kemter; Matthias Kemter;AbstractThe magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes in the spatial coverage or extent of individual floods has not been clear. We analyze flood magnitudes and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across Europe over the past five decades and classify each flood based on antecedent weather conditions. We find positive correlations between flood magnitudes and extents for 95% of the stations. In central Europe and the British Isles, the association of increasing trends in magnitudes and extents is due to a magnitude‐extent correlation of precipitation and soil moisture along with a shift in the flood generating processes. The alignment of trends in flood magnitudes and extents highlights the increasing importance of transnational flood risk management.
Publication Database... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020gl087464&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen gold 88 citations 88 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
more_vert Publication Database... arrow_drop_down GFZpublic (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam)Article . 2020License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020License: CC BYData sources: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciencesadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1029/2020gl087464&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal , Other literature type 2020Embargo end date: 08 Jul 2022 Netherlands, Finland, GermanyPublisher:Elsevier BV Funded by:EC | SOS.aquaterra, AKA | Water and vulnerability i...EC| SOS.aquaterra ,AKA| Water and vulnerability in fragile societies / Consortium: WATVULNguyen, Van Khanh Triet; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Hoang, Long Phi; Duy, Nguyen Le; Tran, Dung Duc; Anh, Tran Tuan; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel; Heiko;pmid: 33167297
The annual flood pulse of the Mekong River is crucial to sustain agriculture production, nutrition, and the livelihood of millions of people living in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta (VMD). However, climate change impacts on precipitation, temperature and sea-level combined with land subsidence, upstream hydropower development, and water infrastructures (i.e. high-dykes construction) are altering the hydrological regime of the VMD. This study investigates future changes in flood hazard and agricultural production caused by these different scales of human-induced stresses. A quasi- two-dimensional (quasi-2D) hydrodynamic model was used to simulate eight scenarios representing the individual and compound impacts of these drivers for a baseline (1971-2000) and future (2036-2065) period. The scenarios map the most likely future pathway of climate change (RCP 4.5) combined with the best available Mekong upstream hydropower development, and land subsidence scenarios as well as the current delta development plan. We found that sea-level rise and land subsidence would cause the highest changes in flood hazard and damage to rice crop, followed by hydropower and climate change impacts. Expansion of high-dyke areas in two northernmost delta provinces (An Giang and Dong Thap) would have the smallest impact. The combination of all modelled drivers is projected to increase delta inundation extent by 20%, accompanied with prolonging submergence of 1-2 months, and 2-3 times increase in annual flood damage to rice crops in the flood-prone areas of the VMD. These findings of likely increasing risk of tidal induced flood hazard and damage call for well-planned adaptation and mitigation measures, both structural and non-structural.
GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesAaltodoc Publication ArchiveArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Aaltodoc Publication ArchiveThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)The Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: CrossrefThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 72 citations 72 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
more_vert GFZpublic (German Re... arrow_drop_down GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesArticle . 2020Data sources: GFZ German Research Centre for GeosciencesAaltodoc Publication ArchiveArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Aaltodoc Publication ArchiveThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020Data sources: DANS (Data Archiving and Networked Services)The Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Elsevier TDMData sources: CrossrefThe Science of The Total EnvironmentArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data Portaladd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu