• Energy Research

Abstract Coral reef fisheries are a vital source of nutrients for thousands of nutritionally vulnerable coastal communities around the world. Here, we evaluated the potential effects of expanding sustainable-use marine protected areas (MPAs) to improve the nutrition of coastal communities. Using information from underwater visual surveys from 2,518 sites located in 53 countries, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the average effect of existing sustainable-use MPAs reef fish biomass and explored how that may alter fish catch, and the nutrients supplied to local communities. We then estimated the potential nutritional benefits of expanding sustainable-use MPAs to all non-MPA coral reefs globally. We found that existing sustainable use MPAs have on average 15% more biomass than open access reefs. Translating this into catch, we estimated that expanding sustainable-use MPAs could increase catch potential by 0-20%, which could prevent 0.53-1.95 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake globally, a fraction of the people who would continue to be sustained by this foundation of coastal food systems. Our study estimates the potential nutritional benefits of expanding sustainable-use MPAs and pinpoints locations with the greatest potential to reduce inadequate micronutrient intake levels, critical knowledge given the strong international movement to cover 30% of our oceans with MPAs by 2030.

Significance We use geolocated child nutrition data from 53 developing countries to show that minor to severe droughts as well as severe periods of extreme rainfall are related to child stunting. We then explore how various geographic factors mitigate or amplify the effect of drought on child heights. Finally, we combine global data on these factors to map where child stunting is currently vulnerable to drought, finding that arid low-income countries with poor governance and political instability are where drought could have the largest effect on child stunting.