- EC| IMPACT2C ,EC| HELIX
Jeroen Steenbeek; Jeroen Steenbeek
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJeroen Steenbeek in OpenAIRE Erwin Schmid; Tyler D. Eddy; Tyler D. Eddy; +55 AuthorsErwin Schmid
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileErwin Schmid in OpenAIRE Jeroen Steenbeek; Jeroen Steenbeek
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJeroen Steenbeek in OpenAIRE Erwin Schmid; Tyler D. Eddy; Tyler D. Eddy; Tyler D. Eddy;Erwin Schmid
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileErwin Schmid in OpenAIRE Derek P. Tittensor; Derek P. Tittensor;Derek P. Tittensor
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDerek P. Tittensor in OpenAIRE Rene Orth; Rene Orth; Yadu Pokhrel; Joshua Elliott; Yusuke Satoh; Yusuke Satoh;Yusuke Satoh
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYusuke Satoh in OpenAIRE Christian Folberth; Christian Folberth
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristian Folberth in OpenAIRE Louis François; Louis François
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLouis François in OpenAIRE Andrew D. Friend; Andrew D. Friend
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAndrew D. Friend in OpenAIRE
Catherine Morfopoulos; Catherine Morfopoulos
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCatherine Morfopoulos in OpenAIRE Nikolay Khabarov; Peter Lawrence; Naota Hanasaki;Nikolay Khabarov
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesNikolay Khabarov in OpenAIRE Michelle T. H. van Vliet; Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMichelle T. H. van Vliet in OpenAIRE Akihiko Ito; Akihiko Ito
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAkihiko Ito in OpenAIRE Sonia I. Seneviratne; Sonia I. Seneviratne
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSonia I. Seneviratne in OpenAIRE Veronika Huber; Veronika Huber
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileVeronika Huber in OpenAIRE Thomas A. M. Pugh; Thomas A. M. Pugh
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas A. M. Pugh in OpenAIRE Jinfeng Chang; Jinfeng Chang
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJinfeng Chang in OpenAIRE Tobias Stacke; Tobias Stacke
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesTobias Stacke in OpenAIRE Philippe Ciais; Lila Warszawski; Jan Volkholz;Philippe Ciais
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesPhilippe Ciais in OpenAIRE Matthias Büchner; Matthias Büchner
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMatthias Büchner in OpenAIRE Yoshihide Wada; Christopher P. O. Reyer;Yoshihide Wada
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYoshihide Wada in OpenAIRE Xuhui Wang; Xuhui Wang; Xuhui Wang;Xuhui Wang
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileXuhui Wang in OpenAIRE Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten;Dieter Gerten
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDieter Gerten in OpenAIRE Sebastian Ostberg; Qiuhong Tang;Sebastian Ostberg
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSebastian Ostberg in OpenAIRE Gen Sakurai; Gen Sakurai
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGen Sakurai in OpenAIRE David A. Carozza; David A. Carozza;David A. Carozza
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDavid A. Carozza in OpenAIRE Christoph Müller; Christoph Müller
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesChristoph Müller in OpenAIRE Jacob Schewe; Jacob Schewe
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJacob Schewe in OpenAIRE Lutz Breuer; Lutz Breuer
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLutz Breuer in OpenAIRE Delphine Deryng; Delphine Deryng
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesDelphine Deryng in OpenAIRE Heike K. Lotze; Heike K. Lotze
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHeike K. Lotze in OpenAIRE Hannes Müller Schmied; Robert Vautard;Hannes Müller Schmied
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHannes Müller Schmied in OpenAIRE Hyungjun Kim; Fang Zhao;Hyungjun Kim
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHyungjun Kim in OpenAIRE Allard de Wit; Jörg Steinkamp; Katja Frieler;Allard de Wit
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAllard de Wit in OpenAIRE Simon N. Gosling; Simon N. Gosling
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSimon N. Gosling in OpenAIRE Lukas Gudmundsson; Lukas Gudmundsson
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesLukas Gudmundsson in OpenAIRE Marta Coll; Marta Coll
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMarta Coll in OpenAIRE Hanqin Tian; Hanqin Tian
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHanqin Tian in OpenAIREAbstractGlobal impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Access RoutesGreen 202 citations 202 popularity Top 0.1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 0.1% 
Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| IMPACT2C ,EC| HELIX Jeroen Steenbeek;
Jeroen Steenbeek
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJeroen Steenbeek in OpenAIRE Erwin Schmid; Tyler D. Eddy; Tyler D. Eddy; +55 AuthorsErwin Schmid
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileErwin Schmid in OpenAIRE Jeroen Steenbeek; Jeroen Steenbeek
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJeroen Steenbeek in OpenAIRE Erwin Schmid; Tyler D. Eddy; Tyler D. Eddy; Tyler D. Eddy;Erwin Schmid
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileErwin Schmid in OpenAIRE Derek P. Tittensor; Derek P. Tittensor;Derek P. Tittensor
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDerek P. Tittensor in OpenAIRE Rene Orth; Rene Orth; Yadu Pokhrel; Joshua Elliott; Yusuke Satoh; Yusuke Satoh;Yusuke Satoh
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYusuke Satoh in OpenAIRE Christian Folberth; Christian Folberth
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristian Folberth in OpenAIRE Louis François; Louis François
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLouis François in OpenAIRE Andrew D. Friend; Andrew D. Friend
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAndrew D. Friend in OpenAIRE Catherine Morfopoulos; Catherine Morfopoulos
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCatherine Morfopoulos in OpenAIRE Nikolay Khabarov; Peter Lawrence; Naota Hanasaki;Nikolay Khabarov
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesNikolay Khabarov in OpenAIRE Michelle T. H. van Vliet; Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMichelle T. H. van Vliet in OpenAIRE Akihiko Ito; Akihiko Ito
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAkihiko Ito in OpenAIRE Sonia I. Seneviratne; Sonia I. Seneviratne
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSonia I. Seneviratne in OpenAIRE Veronika Huber; Veronika Huber
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileVeronika Huber in OpenAIRE Thomas A. M. Pugh; Thomas A. M. Pugh
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas A. M. Pugh in OpenAIRE Jinfeng Chang; Jinfeng Chang
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJinfeng Chang in OpenAIRE Tobias Stacke; Tobias Stacke
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesTobias Stacke in OpenAIRE Philippe Ciais; Lila Warszawski; Jan Volkholz;Philippe Ciais
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesPhilippe Ciais in OpenAIRE Matthias Büchner; Matthias Büchner
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMatthias Büchner in OpenAIRE Yoshihide Wada; Christopher P. O. Reyer;Yoshihide Wada
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileYoshihide Wada in OpenAIRE Xuhui Wang; Xuhui Wang; Xuhui Wang;Xuhui Wang
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileXuhui Wang in OpenAIRE Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten;Dieter Gerten
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDieter Gerten in OpenAIRE Sebastian Ostberg; Qiuhong Tang;Sebastian Ostberg
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSebastian Ostberg in OpenAIRE Gen Sakurai; Gen Sakurai
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileGen Sakurai in OpenAIRE David A. Carozza; David A. Carozza;David A. Carozza
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileDavid A. Carozza in OpenAIRE Christoph Müller; Christoph Müller
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesChristoph Müller in OpenAIRE Jacob Schewe; Jacob Schewe
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJacob Schewe in OpenAIRE Lutz Breuer; Lutz Breuer
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLutz Breuer in OpenAIRE Delphine Deryng; Delphine Deryng
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesDelphine Deryng in OpenAIRE Heike K. Lotze; Heike K. Lotze
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHeike K. Lotze in OpenAIRE Hannes Müller Schmied; Robert Vautard;Hannes Müller Schmied
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHannes Müller Schmied in OpenAIRE Hyungjun Kim; Fang Zhao;Hyungjun Kim
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHyungjun Kim in OpenAIRE Allard de Wit; Jörg Steinkamp; Katja Frieler;Allard de Wit
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAllard de Wit in OpenAIRE Simon N. Gosling; Simon N. Gosling
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSimon N. Gosling in OpenAIRE Lukas Gudmundsson; Lukas Gudmundsson
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesLukas Gudmundsson in OpenAIRE Marta Coll; Marta Coll
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileMarta Coll in OpenAIRE Hanqin Tian; Hanqin Tian
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHanqin Tian in OpenAIREAbstractGlobal impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
Access RoutesGreen 202 citations 202 popularity Top 0.1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 0.1% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| IMBALANCE-P ,NSF| Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Wildfires and Regional Climate Variability - Mechanisms, Modeling, and Prediction ,EC| HELIX Sibyll Schaphoff;
Sibyll Schaphoff
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesSibyll Schaphoff in OpenAIRE Christopher P. O. Reyer; Christopher P. O. Reyer
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristopher P. O. Reyer in OpenAIRE Frédéric Chevallier; Jörg Steinkamp; +29 AuthorsFrédéric Chevallier
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFrédéric Chevallier in OpenAIRE Sibyll Schaphoff; Sibyll Schaphoff
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesSibyll Schaphoff in OpenAIRE Christopher P. O. Reyer; Christopher P. O. Reyer
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristopher P. O. Reyer in OpenAIRE Frédéric Chevallier; Jörg Steinkamp;Frédéric Chevallier
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileFrédéric Chevallier in OpenAIRE Jia Yang; Rashid Rafique; Ghassem R. Asrar;Jia Yang
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesJia Yang in OpenAIRE Ning Zeng; Ning Zeng
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesNing Zeng in OpenAIRE Kazuya Nishina; Kazuya Nishina
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileKazuya Nishina in OpenAIRE Akihiko Ito; Akihiko Ito
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileAkihiko Ito in OpenAIRE Shushi Peng; Fang Zhao;Shushi Peng
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileShushi Peng in OpenAIRE Shufen Pan; Shufen Pan
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileShufen Pan in OpenAIRE Sebastian Ostberg; Sebastian Ostberg;Sebastian Ostberg
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSebastian Ostberg in OpenAIRE Jinfeng Chang; Jinfeng Chang;Jinfeng Chang
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileJinfeng Chang in OpenAIRE Louis François; Shilong Piao; Katja Frieler; Guy Munhoven; Marie Dury;Louis François
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileLouis François in OpenAIRE Thomas Hickler; Thomas Hickler
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileThomas Hickler in OpenAIRE Philippe Ciais; Philippe Ciais
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesPhilippe Ciais in OpenAIRE Xuhui Wang; Xuhui Wang; Alexandra-Jane Henrot;Xuhui Wang
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileXuhui Wang in OpenAIRE Hanqin Tian; Hanqin Tian
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileHanqin Tian in OpenAIRE Christrian Rödenbeck; Anselmo Garcia Cantu Ros; Richard Betts;Christrian Rödenbeck
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesChristrian Rödenbeck in OpenAIRE Nicolas Viovy; Nicolas Viovy
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileNicolas Viovy in OpenAIRE Catherine Morfopoulos; Catherine Morfopoulos
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCatherine Morfopoulos in OpenAIRELe but de cette étude est d'évaluer les huit modèles de biome ISIMIP2a par rapport à des estimations indépendantes des flux nets de carbone à long terme (c'est-à-dire la productivité nette du biome, NBP) sur les écosystèmes terrestres au cours des quatre dernières décennies (1971–2010). Nous évaluons le NBP mondial modélisé par rapport à 1) le puits terrestre résiduel mondial (RLS) mis à jour plus les émissions liées à l'utilisation des terres (ELUC) du Global Carbon Project (GCP), présenté comme R + L dans cette étude par Le Quéré et al (2015), et 2) les flux de CO2 terrestre provenant de deux systèmes d'inversion atmosphérique : Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 et CAMS v15r2, appelés FJena et FCAMS respectivement. L'ensemble de modèles - moyenne NBP (qui comprend sept modèles avec changement d'affectation des terres) est plus élevé que mais dans l'incertitude de R + L, tandis que la tendance NBP positive simulée au cours des 30 dernières années est inférieure à celle de R + L et des deux systèmes d'inversion. Les modèles de biome ISIMIP2a capturent bien la variation interannuelle des flux nets mondiaux de carbone des écosystèmes terrestres. La NBP tropicale représente 31 ± 17 % de la NBP totale mondiale au cours des dernières décennies, et la variation d'une année à l'autre de la NBP tropicale contribue pour l'essentiel à la variation interannuelle de la NBP mondiale. Selon les modèles, l'augmentation de la productivité primaire nette (NPP) a été la principale cause de l'augmentation générale de la NBP. Des anomalies NBP globales significatives à partir de la moyenne à long terme entre les deux phases des événements El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sont simulées par tous les modèles (p < 0,05), ce qui est cohérent avec l'estimation R + L (p = 0,06), également principalement attribuée à des anomalies NPP, plutôt qu'à des changements dans la respiration hétérotrophique (Rh). Les anomalies mondiales de la centrale nucléaire et de la centrale nucléaire nucléaire pendant les événements ENSO sont dominées par leurs anomalies dans les régions tropicales touchées par la variabilité du climat tropical. Les régressions multiples entre les variations interannuelles de R + L, FJena et FCAMS et les variations du climat tropical révèlent une réponse négative significative des flux nets mondiaux de carbone des écosystèmes terrestres à la variation de la température annuelle moyenne tropicale, et une réponse non significative à la variation des précipitations annuelles tropicales. Selon les modèles, les précipitations tropicales sont un facteur plus important, ce qui suggère que certains modèles ne saisissent pas correctement les rôles des précipitations et des changements de température. El propósito de este estudio es evaluar los ocho modelos de bioma ISIMIP2a contra estimaciones independientes de flujos netos de carbono a largo plazo (es decir, Productividad Neta del Bioma, NBP) sobre ecosistemas terrestres durante las últimas cuatro décadas (1971–2010). Evaluamos el NBP global modelado contra 1) el sumidero de tierra residual (RLS) global actualizado más las emisiones de uso de la tierra (ELUC) del Proyecto Global de Carbono (GCP), presentado como R + L en este estudio por Le Quéré et al (2015), y 2) los flujos de CO2 terrestre de dos sistemas de inversión atmosférica: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 y CAMS v15r2, denominados FJena y FCAMS respectivamente. La media del conjunto de modelos NBP (que incluye siete modelos con cambio de uso de la tierra) es mayor que, pero dentro de la incertidumbre de R + L, mientras que la tendencia positiva simulada de NBP en los últimos 30 años es menor que la de R + L y de los dos sistemas de inversión. Los modelos de bioma ISIMIP2a capturan bien la variación interanual de los flujos netos globales de carbono del ecosistema terrestre. El NBP tropical representa el 31 ± 17% del NBP total global durante las últimas décadas, y la variación interanual del NBP tropical contribuye con la mayor parte de la variación interanual del NBP global. Según los modelos, el aumento de la productividad primaria neta (PPN) fue la causa principal del aumento general de la PNB. Todos los modelos simulan anomalías de NBP globales significativas de la media a largo plazo entre las dos fases de los eventos de El Niño Oscilación del Sur (Enos) (p < 0.05), lo cual es consistente con la estimación de R + L (p = 0.06), también atribuida principalmente a anomalías de NPP, más que a cambios en la respiración heterótrofa (Rh). Las anomalías globales de NPP y NBP durante los eventos Enos están dominadas por sus anomalías en las regiones tropicales afectadas por la variabilidad del clima tropical. Las múltiples regresiones entre las variaciones interanuales de R + L, FJena y FCAMS y las variaciones del clima tropical revelan una respuesta negativa significativa de los flujos netos globales de carbono del ecosistema terrestre a la variación de la temperatura media anual tropical, y una respuesta no significativa a la variación de la precipitación anual tropical. Según los modelos, la precipitación tropical es un impulsor más importante, lo que sugiere que algunos modelos no capturan adecuadamente los roles de la precipitación y los cambios de temperatura. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). We evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (ELUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as FJena and FCAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, FJena and FCAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately. الغرض من هذه الدراسة هو تقييم نماذج المناطق الأحيائية الثمانية ISIMIP2a مقابل التقديرات المستقلة لصافي تدفقات الكربون طويلة الأجل (أي صافي إنتاجية المناطق الأحيائية) على النظم الإيكولوجية الأرضية على مدى العقود الأربعة الأخيرة (1971–2010). نقوم بتقييم خطة العمل الوطنية العالمية المنمذجة مقابل 1) بالوعة الأراضي المتبقية العالمية المحدثة بالإضافة إلى انبعاثات استخدام الأراضي (ELUC) من مشروع الكربون العالمي (GCP)، والتي تم تقديمها على أنها R + L في هذه الدراسة من قبل Le Quéré et al (2015)، و 2) تدفقات ثاني أكسيد الكربون الأرضية من نظامين لعكس الغلاف الجوي: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 و CAMS v15r2، المشار إليها باسم FJena و FCAMS على التوالي. إن مجموعة النماذج - تعني NBP (التي تتضمن سبعة نماذج مع تغيير استخدام الأراضي) أعلى من ولكن ضمن عدم اليقين من R + L، في حين أن اتجاه NBP الإيجابي المحاكي على مدار الثلاثين عامًا الماضية أقل من ذلك من R + L ومن نظامي الانعكاس. تلتقط نماذج المناطق الأحيائية ISIMIP2a بشكل جيد التباين السنوي لتدفقات الكربون الصافية للنظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي العالمي. يمثل الناتج القومي الاستوائي 31 ± 17 ٪ من إجمالي الناتج القومي العالمي خلال العقود الماضية، ويساهم التباين من سنة إلى أخرى في الناتج القومي الاستوائي في معظم التباين السنوي في الناتج القومي العالمي. وفقًا للنماذج، كانت زيادة صافي الإنتاجية الأولية هي السبب الرئيسي لزيادة صافي الإنتاجية الأولية بشكل عام. تتم محاكاة حالات الشذوذ العالمية الكبيرة من المتوسط طويل الأجل بين مرحلتي أحداث التذبذب الجنوبي لظاهرة النينيو (ENSO) من خلال جميع النماذج (P < 0.05)، وهو ما يتوافق مع تقدير R + L (P = 0.06)، والذي يعزى أيضًا بشكل أساسي إلى حالات الشذوذ في NPP، بدلاً من التغيرات في التنفس غيري التغذية (Rh). تهيمن الشذوذات العالمية لمحطات الطاقة النووية ومحطات الطاقة الوطنية خلال أحداث ENSO على شذوذاتها في المناطق المدارية المتأثرة بتقلب المناخ المداري. تكشف الانحدارات المتعددة بين الاختلافات السنوية بين R + L و FJENA و FCAMS والتغيرات المناخية المدارية عن استجابة سلبية كبيرة لصافي تدفقات الكربون في النظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي العالمي لمتوسط التغير السنوي في درجة الحرارة المدارية، واستجابة غير كبيرة لتغير هطول الأمطار السنوي المداري. وفقًا للنماذج، يعد هطول الأمطار الاستوائية محركًا أكثر أهمية، مما يشير إلى أن بعض النماذج لا تلتقط أدوار هطول الأمطار وتغيرات درجة الحرارة بشكل كافٍ.
Access RoutesGreen gold 34 citations 34 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1088/1748-9326/aa63fa&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - EC| IMBALANCE-P ,NSF| Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Wildfires and Regional Climate Variability - Mechanisms, Modeling, and Prediction ,EC| HELIX Sibyll Schaphoff;
Sibyll Schaphoff
Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesSibyll Schaphoff in OpenAIRE Christopher P. O. Reyer; Christopher P. O. Reyer
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileChristopher P. O. Reyer in OpenAIRE Frédéric Chevallier; Jörg Steinkamp; +29 AuthorsFrédéric Chevallier
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Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositoriesCatherine Morfopoulos in OpenAIRELe but de cette étude est d'évaluer les huit modèles de biome ISIMIP2a par rapport à des estimations indépendantes des flux nets de carbone à long terme (c'est-à-dire la productivité nette du biome, NBP) sur les écosystèmes terrestres au cours des quatre dernières décennies (1971–2010). Nous évaluons le NBP mondial modélisé par rapport à 1) le puits terrestre résiduel mondial (RLS) mis à jour plus les émissions liées à l'utilisation des terres (ELUC) du Global Carbon Project (GCP), présenté comme R + L dans cette étude par Le Quéré et al (2015), et 2) les flux de CO2 terrestre provenant de deux systèmes d'inversion atmosphérique : Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 et CAMS v15r2, appelés FJena et FCAMS respectivement. L'ensemble de modèles - moyenne NBP (qui comprend sept modèles avec changement d'affectation des terres) est plus élevé que mais dans l'incertitude de R + L, tandis que la tendance NBP positive simulée au cours des 30 dernières années est inférieure à celle de R + L et des deux systèmes d'inversion. Les modèles de biome ISIMIP2a capturent bien la variation interannuelle des flux nets mondiaux de carbone des écosystèmes terrestres. La NBP tropicale représente 31 ± 17 % de la NBP totale mondiale au cours des dernières décennies, et la variation d'une année à l'autre de la NBP tropicale contribue pour l'essentiel à la variation interannuelle de la NBP mondiale. Selon les modèles, l'augmentation de la productivité primaire nette (NPP) a été la principale cause de l'augmentation générale de la NBP. Des anomalies NBP globales significatives à partir de la moyenne à long terme entre les deux phases des événements El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sont simulées par tous les modèles (p < 0,05), ce qui est cohérent avec l'estimation R + L (p = 0,06), également principalement attribuée à des anomalies NPP, plutôt qu'à des changements dans la respiration hétérotrophique (Rh). Les anomalies mondiales de la centrale nucléaire et de la centrale nucléaire nucléaire pendant les événements ENSO sont dominées par leurs anomalies dans les régions tropicales touchées par la variabilité du climat tropical. Les régressions multiples entre les variations interannuelles de R + L, FJena et FCAMS et les variations du climat tropical révèlent une réponse négative significative des flux nets mondiaux de carbone des écosystèmes terrestres à la variation de la température annuelle moyenne tropicale, et une réponse non significative à la variation des précipitations annuelles tropicales. Selon les modèles, les précipitations tropicales sont un facteur plus important, ce qui suggère que certains modèles ne saisissent pas correctement les rôles des précipitations et des changements de température. El propósito de este estudio es evaluar los ocho modelos de bioma ISIMIP2a contra estimaciones independientes de flujos netos de carbono a largo plazo (es decir, Productividad Neta del Bioma, NBP) sobre ecosistemas terrestres durante las últimas cuatro décadas (1971–2010). Evaluamos el NBP global modelado contra 1) el sumidero de tierra residual (RLS) global actualizado más las emisiones de uso de la tierra (ELUC) del Proyecto Global de Carbono (GCP), presentado como R + L en este estudio por Le Quéré et al (2015), y 2) los flujos de CO2 terrestre de dos sistemas de inversión atmosférica: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 y CAMS v15r2, denominados FJena y FCAMS respectivamente. La media del conjunto de modelos NBP (que incluye siete modelos con cambio de uso de la tierra) es mayor que, pero dentro de la incertidumbre de R + L, mientras que la tendencia positiva simulada de NBP en los últimos 30 años es menor que la de R + L y de los dos sistemas de inversión. Los modelos de bioma ISIMIP2a capturan bien la variación interanual de los flujos netos globales de carbono del ecosistema terrestre. El NBP tropical representa el 31 ± 17% del NBP total global durante las últimas décadas, y la variación interanual del NBP tropical contribuye con la mayor parte de la variación interanual del NBP global. Según los modelos, el aumento de la productividad primaria neta (PPN) fue la causa principal del aumento general de la PNB. Todos los modelos simulan anomalías de NBP globales significativas de la media a largo plazo entre las dos fases de los eventos de El Niño Oscilación del Sur (Enos) (p < 0.05), lo cual es consistente con la estimación de R + L (p = 0.06), también atribuida principalmente a anomalías de NPP, más que a cambios en la respiración heterótrofa (Rh). Las anomalías globales de NPP y NBP durante los eventos Enos están dominadas por sus anomalías en las regiones tropicales afectadas por la variabilidad del clima tropical. Las múltiples regresiones entre las variaciones interanuales de R + L, FJena y FCAMS y las variaciones del clima tropical revelan una respuesta negativa significativa de los flujos netos globales de carbono del ecosistema terrestre a la variación de la temperatura media anual tropical, y una respuesta no significativa a la variación de la precipitación anual tropical. Según los modelos, la precipitación tropical es un impulsor más importante, lo que sugiere que algunos modelos no capturan adecuadamente los roles de la precipitación y los cambios de temperatura. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). We evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (ELUC) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as FJena and FCAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, FJena and FCAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately. الغرض من هذه الدراسة هو تقييم نماذج المناطق الأحيائية الثمانية ISIMIP2a مقابل التقديرات المستقلة لصافي تدفقات الكربون طويلة الأجل (أي صافي إنتاجية المناطق الأحيائية) على النظم الإيكولوجية الأرضية على مدى العقود الأربعة الأخيرة (1971–2010). نقوم بتقييم خطة العمل الوطنية العالمية المنمذجة مقابل 1) بالوعة الأراضي المتبقية العالمية المحدثة بالإضافة إلى انبعاثات استخدام الأراضي (ELUC) من مشروع الكربون العالمي (GCP)، والتي تم تقديمها على أنها R + L في هذه الدراسة من قبل Le Quéré et al (2015)، و 2) تدفقات ثاني أكسيد الكربون الأرضية من نظامين لعكس الغلاف الجوي: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 و CAMS v15r2، المشار إليها باسم FJena و FCAMS على التوالي. إن مجموعة النماذج - تعني NBP (التي تتضمن سبعة نماذج مع تغيير استخدام الأراضي) أعلى من ولكن ضمن عدم اليقين من R + L، في حين أن اتجاه NBP الإيجابي المحاكي على مدار الثلاثين عامًا الماضية أقل من ذلك من R + L ومن نظامي الانعكاس. تلتقط نماذج المناطق الأحيائية ISIMIP2a بشكل جيد التباين السنوي لتدفقات الكربون الصافية للنظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي العالمي. يمثل الناتج القومي الاستوائي 31 ± 17 ٪ من إجمالي الناتج القومي العالمي خلال العقود الماضية، ويساهم التباين من سنة إلى أخرى في الناتج القومي الاستوائي في معظم التباين السنوي في الناتج القومي العالمي. وفقًا للنماذج، كانت زيادة صافي الإنتاجية الأولية هي السبب الرئيسي لزيادة صافي الإنتاجية الأولية بشكل عام. تتم محاكاة حالات الشذوذ العالمية الكبيرة من المتوسط طويل الأجل بين مرحلتي أحداث التذبذب الجنوبي لظاهرة النينيو (ENSO) من خلال جميع النماذج (P < 0.05)، وهو ما يتوافق مع تقدير R + L (P = 0.06)، والذي يعزى أيضًا بشكل أساسي إلى حالات الشذوذ في NPP، بدلاً من التغيرات في التنفس غيري التغذية (Rh). تهيمن الشذوذات العالمية لمحطات الطاقة النووية ومحطات الطاقة الوطنية خلال أحداث ENSO على شذوذاتها في المناطق المدارية المتأثرة بتقلب المناخ المداري. تكشف الانحدارات المتعددة بين الاختلافات السنوية بين R + L و FJENA و FCAMS والتغيرات المناخية المدارية عن استجابة سلبية كبيرة لصافي تدفقات الكربون في النظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي العالمي لمتوسط التغير السنوي في درجة الحرارة المدارية، واستجابة غير كبيرة لتغير هطول الأمطار السنوي المداري. وفقًا للنماذج، يعد هطول الأمطار الاستوائية محركًا أكثر أهمية، مما يشير إلى أن بعض النماذج لا تلتقط أدوار هطول الأمطار وتغيرات درجة الحرارة بشكل كافٍ.
Access RoutesGreen gold 34 citations 34 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1088/1748-9326/aa63fa&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - ARC| Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP170103410 ,EC| REALM ,ANR| OTMed ,EC| GC2.0 ,EC| Plant-FATE ,EC| ECAW-ISO ,ANR| Amidex ,EC| IMBALANCE-P Åke Brännström; Åke Brännström;
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileÅke Brännström in OpenAIRE Iain Colin Prentice; Iain Colin Prentice; +24 AuthorsIain Colin Prentice
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileBenjamin D. Stocker in OpenAIRE Sandy P. Harrison; Sandy P. Harrison;Sandy P. Harrison
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSandy P. Harrison in OpenAIRESummaryGlobal vegetation and land‐surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. However, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and water cycle projections by different models highlight the limitations of current process formulations. In this review, focusing on core plant functions in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, we show how unifying hypotheses derived from eco‐evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles can provide novel, parameter‐sparse representations of plant and vegetation processes. We present case studies that demonstrate how EEO generates parsimonious representations of core, leaf‐level processes that are individually testable and supported by evidence. EEO approaches to photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration and stomatal behaviour are ripe for implementation in global models. EEO approaches to other important traits, including the leaf economics spectrum and applications of EEO at the community level are active research areas. Independently tested modules emerging from EEO studies could profitably be integrated into modelling frameworks that account for the multiple time scales on which plants and plant communities adjust to environmental change.
Access RoutesGreen bronze 109 citations 109 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.<script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1111/nph.17558&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu - ARC| Discovery Projects - Grant ID: DP170103410 ,EC| REALM ,ANR| OTMed ,EC| GC2.0 ,EC| Plant-FATE ,EC| ECAW-ISO ,ANR| Amidex ,EC| IMBALANCE-P Åke Brännström; Åke Brännström;
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileBenjamin D. Stocker in OpenAIRE Sandy P. Harrison; Sandy P. Harrison;Sandy P. Harrison
Harvested from ORCID Public Data FileSandy P. Harrison in OpenAIRESummaryGlobal vegetation and land‐surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. However, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and water cycle projections by different models highlight the limitations of current process formulations. In this review, focusing on core plant functions in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, we show how unifying hypotheses derived from eco‐evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles can provide novel, parameter‐sparse representations of plant and vegetation processes. We present case studies that demonstrate how EEO generates parsimonious representations of core, leaf‐level processes that are individually testable and supported by evidence. EEO approaches to photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration and stomatal behaviour are ripe for implementation in global models. EEO approaches to other important traits, including the leaf economics spectrum and applications of EEO at the community level are active research areas. Independently tested modules emerging from EEO studies could profitably be integrated into modelling frameworks that account for the multiple time scales on which plants and plant communities adjust to environmental change.
Access RoutesGreen bronze 109 citations 109 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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