• Energy Research

Energy forecasting is an essential task in power system operations. Operators usually issue forecasts and leverage them to schedule energy dispatch ahead of time. However, forecast models are typically developed in a way that overlooks the operational value of the forecasts. To bridge the gap, we design a value-oriented point forecasting approach for sequential energy dispatch problems with renewable energy sources. At the training phase, we align the loss function with the overall operation cost function, thereby achieving reduced operation costs. The forecast model parameter estimation is formulated as a bilevel program. Under mild assumptions, we convert the upper-level objective into an equivalent form using the dual solutions obtained from the lower-level operation problems. Additionally, a novel iterative solution strategy is proposed for the newly formulated bilevel program. Under such an iterative scheme, we show that the upper-level objective is locally linear regarding the forecast model output, and can act as the loss function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, compared to commonly used statistical quality-oriented point forecasting methods, forecasts obtained by the proposed approach result in lower operation costs. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is more computationally efficient than traditional two-stage stochastic programs. Accepted in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Energy forecasting is an essential task in power system operations. Operators usually issue forecasts and leverage them to schedule energy dispatch ahead of time. However, forecast models are typically developed in a way that overlooks the operational value of the forecasts. To bridge the gap, we design a value-oriented point forecasting approach for sequential energy dispatch problems with renewable energy sources. At the training phase, we align the loss function with the overall operation cost function, thereby achieving reduced operation costs. The forecast model parameter estimation is formulated as a bilevel program. Under mild assumptions, we convert the upper-level objective into an equivalent form using the dual solutions obtained from the lower-level operation problems. Additionally, a novel iterative solution strategy is proposed for the newly formulated bilevel program. Under such an iterative scheme, we show that the upper-level objective is locally linear regarding the forecast model output, and can act as the loss function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, compared to commonly used statistical quality-oriented point forecasting methods, forecasts obtained by the proposed approach result in lower operation costs. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is more computationally efficient than traditional two-stage stochastic programs. Accepted in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

AbstractTime‐varying electricity tariffs provide consumers the flexibility to adjust their consumption patterns in response to price variations to reduce the cost of electricity while at the same time contributing to grid operation. As more homes and buildings utilize time‐varying tariffs, utilities and regulators must seek ways to model demand‐side flexibilities to predict future demands and design new incentives. This paper proposes a novel end‐to‐end deep learning framework that simultaneously identifies demand baselines and the price‐response model from the net demand measurements and price signals. A gradient‐descent approach is then proposed that backpropagates the net demand forecast errors to update the weights of the price‐response model and the weights of the baseline demand forecast jointly. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through computation experiments with synthetic demand response traces and a large‐scale real‐world DR dataset. The results show that the approach accurately identifies the DR model, even without prior knowledge about the baseline demand.

AbstractTime‐varying electricity tariffs provide consumers the flexibility to adjust their consumption patterns in response to price variations to reduce the cost of electricity while at the same time contributing to grid operation. As more homes and buildings utilize time‐varying tariffs, utilities and regulators must seek ways to model demand‐side flexibilities to predict future demands and design new incentives. This paper proposes a novel end‐to‐end deep learning framework that simultaneously identifies demand baselines and the price‐response model from the net demand measurements and price signals. A gradient‐descent approach is then proposed that backpropagates the net demand forecast errors to update the weights of the price‐response model and the weights of the baseline demand forecast jointly. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through computation experiments with synthetic demand response traces and a large‐scale real‐world DR dataset. The results show that the approach accurately identifies the DR model, even without prior knowledge about the baseline demand.

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources into power grids has led to time-varying system inertia and consequent degradation in frequency dynamics. A promising solution to alleviate performance degradation is using power electronics interfaced energy resources, such as renewable generators and battery energy storage for primary frequency control, by adjusting their power output set-points in response to frequency deviations. However, designing a frequency controller under time-varying inertia is challenging. Specifically, the stability or optimality of controllers designed for time-invariant systems can be compromised once applied to a time-varying system. We model the frequency dynamics under time-varying inertia as a nonlinear switching system, where the frequency dynamics under each mode are described by the nonlinear swing equations and different modes represent different inertia levels. We identify a key controller structure, named Neural Proportional-Integral (Neural-PI) controller, that guarantees exponential input-to-state stability for each mode. To further improve performance, we present an online event-triggered switching algorithm to select the most suitable controller from a set of Neural-PI controllers, each optimized for specific inertia levels. Simulations on the IEEE 39-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed online switching control method with stability guarantees and optimized performance for frequency control under time-varying inertia.

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources into power grids has led to time-varying system inertia and consequent degradation in frequency dynamics. A promising solution to alleviate performance degradation is using power electronics interfaced energy resources, such as renewable generators and battery energy storage for primary frequency control, by adjusting their power output set-points in response to frequency deviations. However, designing a frequency controller under time-varying inertia is challenging. Specifically, the stability or optimality of controllers designed for time-invariant systems can be compromised once applied to a time-varying system. We model the frequency dynamics under time-varying inertia as a nonlinear switching system, where the frequency dynamics under each mode are described by the nonlinear swing equations and different modes represent different inertia levels. We identify a key controller structure, named Neural Proportional-Integral (Neural-PI) controller, that guarantees exponential input-to-state stability for each mode. To further improve performance, we present an online event-triggered switching algorithm to select the most suitable controller from a set of Neural-PI controllers, each optimized for specific inertia levels. Simulations on the IEEE 39-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed online switching control method with stability guarantees and optimized performance for frequency control under time-varying inertia.

Deep reinforcement learning has been recognized as a promising tool to address the challenges in real-time control of power systems. However, its deployment in real-world power systems has been hindered by a lack of explicit stability and safety guarantees. In this paper, we propose a stability-constrained reinforcement learning (RL) method for real-time voltage control, that guarantees system stability both during policy learning and deployment of the learned policy. The key idea underlying our approach is an explicitly constructed Lyapunov function that leads to a sufficient structural condition for stabilizing policies, i.e., monotonically decreasing policies guarantee stability. We incorporate this structural constraint with RL, by parameterizing each local voltage controller using a monotone neural network, thus ensuring the stability constraint is satisfied by design. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in both single-phase and three-phase IEEE test feeders, where the proposed method can reduce the transient control cost by more than 25% and shorten the voltage recovery time by 21.5% on average compared to the widely used linear policy, while always achieving voltage stability. In contrast, standard RL methods often fail to achieve voltage stability. This paper is accepted by TCNS. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2109.14854

Deep reinforcement learning has been recognized as a promising tool to address the challenges in real-time control of power systems. However, its deployment in real-world power systems has been hindered by a lack of explicit stability and safety guarantees. In this paper, we propose a stability-constrained reinforcement learning (RL) method for real-time voltage control, that guarantees system stability both during policy learning and deployment of the learned policy. The key idea underlying our approach is an explicitly constructed Lyapunov function that leads to a sufficient structural condition for stabilizing policies, i.e., monotonically decreasing policies guarantee stability. We incorporate this structural constraint with RL, by parameterizing each local voltage controller using a monotone neural network, thus ensuring the stability constraint is satisfied by design. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in both single-phase and three-phase IEEE test feeders, where the proposed method can reduce the transient control cost by more than 25% and shorten the voltage recovery time by 21.5% on average compared to the widely used linear policy, while always achieving voltage stability. In contrast, standard RL methods often fail to achieve voltage stability. This paper is accepted by TCNS. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2109.14854