• Energy Research

Abstract Fusion is one of the technologies that may contribute to a future, low carbon, global energy supply system. In this article we investigate the role that it may play under different scenarios. The global energy model ETM (originally EFDA TIMES Model) has been used to analyse the participation of fusion technologies in the global electricity system in the long term. Results show that fusion technologies penetration is higher in scenarios with stricter CO2 emissions reduction targets. In addition, investment costs and discount rates of fusion technologies are key factors for fusion implementation. Finally, the main competitors for fusion in future are Carbon Capture and Storage and fission technologies.

The European Roadmap towards the production of electricity from nuclear fusion foresees the potential availability of nuclear fusion power plants (NFPPs) in the second half of this century. The possible penetration of that technology, typically addressed by using the global energy system EUROFusion TIMES Model (ETM), will depend, among other aspects, on its costs compared to those of the other available technologies for electricity production, and on the future electricity demand. This paper focuses on the ongoing electrification process of the transport sector, with special attention devoted to road transport. A survey on the present and forthcoming technologies, as foreseen by several manufacturers and other models, and an international vehicle database are taken into account to develop the new road transport module, then implemented and harmonized inside ETM. Following three different storylines, the computed results are presented in terms of the evolution of the road transport demand in the next decades, fleet composition and CO 2 emissions. The ETM results are in line with many other studies. On one hand, they highlight, for the European road transport energy consumption pattern, the need for dramatic changes in the transport market, if the most ambitious environmental goals are to be pursued. On the other hand, the results also show that NFPP adoption on a commercial scale could be justified within the current projection of the investment costs, if the deep penetration of electricity in the road transport sector also occurs.

Abstract Energy system models based on the TIMES framework can explore possible energy futures through the construction of a network of technological processes, to satisfy a set of exogenously imposed service demands at the least-cost system configuration. This work presents a methodology aimed at supporting decision-makers in finding optimal energy-system configuration in a complex energy environment, characterized by uncertain information. First, the EUROfusion TIMES Model is used to assess the sensitivity of different long-term evolutions of the European energy system, with particular reference to the road transport sector, considering different trends for the prescribed future variations of investment cost and vehicle efficiency. In a second step, the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis is used to critically evaluate the alternative optimal configurations proposed by the model simulations under a set of economic and environmental criteria. The results of the analysis allow the discussion of the influence of such criteria on the different alternative cases, complementing the cost minimization approach. In the case study considered here, high penetrations of electric vehicles in the road fleet are favored by economic, environmental and energy-related priorities.

Electrification of final energy use and electricity generation by low-carbon technologies are key points of the path toward carbon-neutrality. Carbon free electricity can be generated by both nuclear and renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, although all of them can be economically viable in terms of 'Levelized Cost Of Energy', their exploitation involve variable renewables, so as to require power system upgrades with adequate energy storage systems, dispatchable generation capacity and transmission/distribution grid enhancements (power infrastructure assets) that may lead to relevant additional system costs. To this respect, each power system is almost unique, due to its peculiarities as far as renewable potentials is concerned. In order to find the least cost feasible and reliable generation mix, detailed hourly simulations are necessary. In this paper, long term power generation scenarios will be simulated with the COMESE code, a dispatch model able to perform detailed regional power systems analysis. Carbon-free Italian power system long term scenarios are simulated, with high share of photovoltaic and to less extent wind electricity together with a possible contribution of nuclear fusion power plants. The operation of the transmission grid is simulated, through a transport model, in order to assess the necessary grid enhancement and to estimate the related costs. In this context the impact of fusion will be assessed in terms of mitigation of the overall system cost of electricity.

Abstract The effects of the update of the EUROfusion TIMES Model (ETM) industrial sector to account for the introduction of low-carbon technologies is presented and discussed in this work. ETM is a minimum-cost energy system model aimed at investigating the conditions for the introduction of nuclear fusion in the future electricity mix. The most interesting ETM long-run scenarios (until 2100) must comply with stringent environmental targets to pursue the Below-2-Degrees objective, identified in the Paris Agreement, allowing wide commercial adoption of innovative production processes - currently under test or research - which would almost completely replace well-established fossil-based industrial techniques in the iron and steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals and pulp and paper sub-sectors. Among them, low-carbon and electrolysis-based processes could open the way to a considerable increase of electricity demand, requiring also clean resources not to undermine sectoral efforts in becoming more environmentally sustainable, and the same does the implementation of CCS technologies. The study shows that the industrial sector contributes to the energy mix decarbonization by relying on CCS technologies, when available, or new low-carbon technologies. The progressive electrification of the industrial sector turns into an increasing final electricity demand which is covered by renewables and nuclear when stringent climate policies are put in place. Despite technological constraints are likely to slow down fusion deployment in the future, a range of scenarios show that nuclear fusion could contribute to generation of carbon-free electricity in the future European energy system.

In the global effort towards the mitigation of climate change, low-carbon electricity generating technologies play a pivotal role. Nuclear fusion stands as a highly promising option for carbon-free electricity generation in a sustainable, reliable, affordable and socially acceptable future energy system. The EUROfusion work package “Socio Economic Studies” (WPSES) on fusion conducts research aimed at identifying social and economic conditions that can effectively support fusion deployment in future energy markets. Placing nuclear fusion in the broader context of energy and climate issues, the SES research explores fusion as an energy technology contributing to sustainable energy production for the future society. Because of the cross-cutting nature of the research, SES studies can provide decision-makers with scientific evidence relevant for shaping appropriate strategies in favour of fusion. This paper aims to offer the scientific community a thorough overview of EUROfusion SES research, addressing a gap in the current literature.