• Energy Research

SummaryDuring the last three decades, the expansion of irrigation using both surface water and groundwater resources has had an important positive impact on Syria’s agricultural production. It is an example of success in achieving food policy objectives, but it has also introduced the challenge of groundwater sustainability. This paper examines the trends in groundwater abstraction for irrigation and the effect of government policies, including input subsidies – such as the diesel fuel subsidy and the crop procurement price support. The fuel subsidy is an important driving force in groundwater depletion and over-abstraction. This analysis examines the interaction between policy signals and the use and allocation of water by farmers. The rapid decline in groundwater resources shows the limitations of this agricultural development strategy and questions its sustainability unless policies change and the rate of abstraction is changed so as not exceed the recharge rate.

According to observational and model-based studies, the eastern Mediterranean region is one of the most prominent climate-change hotspots in the world. The combined effect of warming and drying is expected to augment the regional impacts of global warming. In addition to changes in mean climatic conditions, global warming is likely to induce changes in several aspects of extreme rainfall such as duration and magnitude. In this context, we explore the impact of climate change on precipitation with the use of several indicators. We focus on Cyprus, a water-stressed island located in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. Our results are derived from a new high-resolution simulation for the 21st century, which is driven by a “business-as-usual” scenario. In addition to a strong temperature increase (up to 4.1 °C), our analysis highlights that, on average for the island, most extreme precipitation indicators decrease, suggesting a transition to much drier conditions. The absolute daily rainfall maxima exhibit strong local variability, indicating the need for high resolution simulations to understand the potential impacts on future flooding.

The development of green space along urban rivers could mitigate urban heat island effects, enhance the physical and mental well-being of city dwellers, and improve flood resilience. A linear park has been recently created along the ephemeral Pedieos River in the urban area of Nicosia, Cyprus. Questionnaire surveys and micrometeorological measurements were conducted to explore people’s perceptions and satisfaction regarding the services of the urban park. People’s main reasons to visit the park were physical activity and exercise (67%), nature (13%), and cooling (4%). The micrometeorological measurements in and near the park revealed a relatively low cooling effect (0.5 °C) of the park. However, the majority of the visitors (84%) were satisfied or very satisfied with the cooling effect of the park. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds of individuals feeling very comfortable under a projected 3 °C future increase in temperature would be 0.34 times lower than the odds of feeling less comfortable. The discrepancies between the observed thermal comfort index and people’s perceptions revealed that people in semi-arid environments are adapted to the hot climatic conditions; 63% of the park visitors did not feel uncomfortable at temperatures between 27 °C and 37 °C. Further research is needed to assess other key ecosystems services of this urban green river corridor, such as flood protection, air quality regulation, and biodiversity conservation, to contribute to integrated climate change adaptation planning.

Global warming is anticipated to intensify the hydrological cycle. However, this is neither expected to be globally uniform nor is the relationship between temperature increase and rainfall intensities expected to be linear. The objective of this study is to assess changes in annual rainfall extremes, total annual precipitation, and their relationship in the larger Mediterranean region. We use an up-to-date ensemble of 33 regional climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.11° resolution. We analyse the significance of trends for 1951-2000 and 2001-2100 under a 'business-as-usual' pathway (RCP8.5). Our future projections indicate a strong north/south Mediterranean gradient, with significant, decreasing trends in the magnitude of daily precipitation extremes in the south and the Maghreb region (up to -10 mm/decade) and less profound, increasing trends in the north. Despite the contrasting future trends, the 50-year daily precipitation extremes are projected to strongly increase (up to 100%) throughout the region. The 100-year extremes, derived with traditional extreme value approaches from the 1951-2000 simulations, underestimate the magnitude of these extreme events in the 2001-2100 projections by 30% for the drier areas of the Mediterranean (200-500 mm average annual rainfall) and by up to 20-30% for the wetter parts of the region. These 100-year extremes can occur at any time in any Mediterranean location. The contribution of the wettest day per year to the annual total precipitation is expected to increase (5-30%) throughout the region. The projected increase in extremes and the strong reductions in mean annual precipitation in the drier, southern and eastern Mediterranean will amplify the challenges for water resource management.

Climate and other human-induced changes will increase water scarcity in world areas such as in the Mediterranean. Adaptation principles need to be urgently incorporated into water management and stakeholder engagement needs to be strengthened at all steps of the management cycle. This study aimed to analyse and compare stakeholder-preferred water management options (WMOs) to face climate change related challenges and to foster adaptation in four Mediterranean river basins. The challenges and WMOs of the four river basins identified by stakeholders were analysed examining to what extent the WMOs tackled the identified challenges. The impact of the WMOs resulting from a participatory modelling method was included in a comparative analysis of the stakeholders’ WMOs preferences. The results indicate the participatory approach that was applied allowed local priorities and real-world challenges to be defined with adequate detail as well as the definition of tailored responses. The participatory impact analysis provided an integrated view of the river basin as an interrelated system. The participatory evaluation of the WMOs was able to consider a wide range of elements and was able reflect the combined preferences of the stakeholders. Moreover, it allowed groups of basin actors with highly diverse profiles and concerns to further promote sets of these WMOs as input into decision making processes.