• Energy Research

The scale and patterns of household consumption are important determinants of environmental impacts. Whilst affluence has been shown to have a strong correlation with environmental impact, they do not necessarily grow at the same rate. Given the apparent contradiction between the sustainable development goals of economic growth and environmental protection, it is important to understand the effect of rising affluence and concurrent changing consumption patterns on future environmental impacts. Here we develop an econometric demand model based on the data available from a global multiregional input-output dataset. We model future household consumption following scenarios of population and GDP growth for 49 individual regions. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the future household demand is then explored both with and without consideration of the change in expenditure over time on different consumption categories. Compared to a baseline scenario where final demand grows in line with the 2011 average consumption pattern up until 2030, we find that changing consumer preferences with increasing affluence has a small negative effect on global cumulative GHG emissions. The differences are more profound on both a regional and a product level. For the demand model scenario, we find the largest decrease in GHG emissions for the BRICS and other developing countries, while emissions in North America and the EU remain unchanged. Decreased spending and resulting emissions on food are cancelled out by increased spending and emissions on transportation. Despite relatively small global differences between the scenarios, the regional and sectoral wedges indicate that there is a large untapped potential in environmental policies and lifestyle changes that can complement the technological transition towards a low-emitting society.

Abstract An increasing number of studies show that efficiency improvements alone will not be sufficient to attain the substantial emission reductions needed to mitigate global warming to a target of 2 °C. Consumption side changes are likely to be needed to achieve sufficient emission reductions. The United Nations emphasize the importance of developed countries taking the lead in lowering emissions to achieve the sustainable development goals. This paper assess to what extent Norwegian households can lower their carbon footprint consistent with territorial emission reductions towards the 2 °C target of global warming through implementing a set of behavioral actions. We evaluate the efficacy of the set of actions both initially and after considering rebound effects. A multiregional environmentally extended input-output database is linked with the Norwegian consumer expenditure survey to analyze both average and marginal expenditure per unit of increased income. Further, linear programming is applied to examine the changes needed by households to reach different emission reduction targets. We find that households implementing the full set of actions without re-spending can obtain a 58% decrease in their carbon footprint. When accounting for the effect of re-spending, this reduction drops to 24–35%, which is not within the requirements of the 2 °C target. The optimization analysis suggests households can achieve reductions up to 45% by restricting re-spending to specific goods and services. This indicates that curbing the rebound effect is key to achieving real reductions in household carbon footprints. We show that changing consumption patterns can significantly contribute to lowering anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions without compromising the level of economic activity.