• Energy Research

AbstractGlobal change drivers can interact in synergistic ways, yet the interactive effect of global change drivers, such as climatic warming and species invasions, on plant pollination are poorly represented in experimental studies. We paired manipulative experiments to probe two mechanistic pathways through which plant invasion and warming may alter phenology and reproduction of native plant species. In the first, we tested how experimental warming (+1.7°C) modulated flowering phenology and how this affected flowering overlap between a native plant (Dracophyllum subulatum) and an invasive plant (Calluna vulgaris L.). In the second experiment, we explored how variation in the ratio of native to invasive flowers, and the overall quantity of resources in a floral patch, affected the reproduction of the native species. We hypothesized that the flowering overlap of native and invasive plants would be altered by warming, given that invading plants typically exhibit greater phenological plasticity than native plants. Further, we hypothesized that pollination of native plant flowers would decrease in floral patches dominated by invasive plant flowers, but that this effect would depend on total floral density in the patch. As predicted, the invasive plant had a stronger phenological response to experimental warming than the native plant, resulting in increased flowering overlap between the native the invasive plants. There was a four‐fold increase in the number of native flowers co‐flowering with high densities of invasive flowers suggesting native plant competition for pollinators with invasive plants under a warmed climate. In the second experiment, we found depressed seed masses of the native species in high density floral patches that were dominated by invasive flowers relative to high density floral patches dominated by native flowers. At low floral densities, seed mass of native plants was unaffected by invasion. Together, these results demonstrate that by increasing their phenological overlap, warming may enhance the magnitude of existing competition for pollination exerted by an invasive plant on a native plant, particularly in plant patches with high floral density. Our results illustrate a novel pathway through which global change drivers can operate synergistically to alter an important ecosystem service: pollination.

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration should stimulate biomass production directly via biochemical stimulation of carbon assimilation, and indirectly via water savings caused by increased plant water-use efficiency. Because of these water savings, the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) should be stronger at drier sites, yet large differences among experiments in grassland biomass response to elevated CO2 appear to be unrelated to annual precipitation, preventing useful generalizations. Here, we show that, as predicted, the impact of elevated CO2 on biomass production in 19 globally distributed temperate grassland experiments reduces as mean precipitation in seasons other than spring increases, but that it rises unexpectedly as mean spring precipitation increases. Moreover, because sites with high spring precipitation also tend to have high precipitation at other times, these effects of spring and non-spring precipitation on the CO2 response offset each other, constraining the response of ecosystem productivity to rising CO2. This explains why previous analyses were unable to discern a reliable trend between site dryness and the CFE. Thus, the CFE in temperate grasslands worldwide will be constrained by their natural rainfall seasonality such that the stimulation of biomass by rising CO2 could be substantially less than anticipated.

AbstractGlobal warming and changes in precipitation are altering the phenology of plants that significantly impact the functioning and services of ecosystems. Although a number of studies have addressed responses of plant phenology to warming and altered precipitation individually, their interactions can alter plant phenology differently than either does independently. To explore how the interactions between global change drivers alter alpine ecosystems, we conducted a factorial experiment manipulating warming (ambient and +2°C) and altered precipitation (50% decrease, control, and 50% increase) simultaneously in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Over two years, we monitored plant phenological events, leaf‐out day and first flowering day, for 11 common plant species that account for 74.4% of the total above biomass. Surprisingly, there was no interaction between warming and changes in precipitation on community plant phenology, but warming advanced leaf‐out and first flowering day by 7.10 and 9.79 d, respectively. Unlike the community response, plant functional groups had a variety of direct and interactive responses to the experimental climate drivers. While the phenology of legumes was most influenced by temperature, temperature and precipitation interacted to alter the phenology of grasses and forbs. To explore how plant phenological sensitivity on the Tibetan Plateau is compared with other meadow ecosystems, we combined our dataset with a global plant phenology dataset. Interestingly, the phenological sensitivity of leaf‐out day and first flowering day on the Tibetan Plateau is 7.3 and 37.8 times greater than global phenological sensitivity, respectively. This result highlights that a meta‐analysis of global phenological sensitivity may significantly underestimate change in some regions—even regions as large as the Tibetan Plateau. Together, our results suggest that the Tibetan Plateau may experience rapid change as temperatures warm and that these changes will likely be more rapid than in other regions of the world. Further, our study highlights that if we are to make accurate predictions of how plant phenology may change with warming, we need to understand the specific environmental cues that drive phenological responses across different areas.

Abstract Winters in snow-covered regions have warmed, likely shifting the timing and magnitude of nutrient export, leading to unquantified changes in water quality. Intermittent, seasonal, and permanent snow covers more than half of the global land surface. Warming has reduced the cold conditions that limit winter runoff and nutrient transport, while cold season snowmelt, the amount of winter precipitation falling as rain, and rain-on-snow have increased. We used existing geospatial datasets (rain-on-snow frequency overlain on nitrogen and phosphorous inventories) to identify areas of the contiguous United States (US) where water quality could be threatened by this change. Next, to illustrate the potential export impacts of these events, we examined flow and turbidity data from a large regional rain-on-snow event in the United States’ largest river basin, the Mississippi River Basin. We show that rain-on-snow, a major flood-generating mechanism for large areas of the globe (Berghuijs et al 2019 Water Resour. Res. 55 4582–93; Berghuijs et al 2016 Geophys. Res. Lett. 43 4382–90), affects 53% of the contiguous US and puts 50% of US nitrogen and phosphorus pools (43% of the contiguous US) at risk of export to groundwater and surface water. Further, the 2019 rain-on-snow event in the Mississippi River Basin demonstrates that these events could have large, cascading impacts on winter nutrient transport. We suggest that the assumption of low wintertime discharge and nutrient transport in historically snow-covered regions no longer holds. Critically, however, we lack sufficient data to accurately measure and predict these episodic and potentially large wintertime nutrient export events at regional to continental scales.

• Climate change (altered CO(2) , warming, and precipitation) may affect plant-microbial interactions, such as the Lolium arundinaceum-Neotyphodium coenophialum symbiosis, to alter future ecosystem structure and function. • To assess this possibility, tall fescue tillers were collected from an existing climate manipulation experiment in a constructed old-field community in Tennessee (USA). Endophyte infection frequency (EIF) was determined, and infected (E+) and uninfected (E-) tillers were analysed for tissue chemistry. • The EIF of tall fescue was higher under elevated CO(2) (91% infected) than with ambient CO(2) (81%) but was not affected by warming or precipitation treatments. Within E+ tillers, elevated CO(2) decreased alkaloid concentrations of both ergovaline and loline, by c. 30%; whereas warming increased loline concentrations 28% but had no effect on ergovaline. Independent of endophyte infection, elevated CO(2) reduced concentrations of nitrogen, cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin. • These results suggest that elevated CO(2) , more than changes in temperature or precipitation, may promote this grass-fungal symbiosis, leading to higher EIF in tall fescue in old-field communities. However, as all three climate factors are likely to change in the future, predicting the symbiotic response and resulting ecological consequences may be difficult and dependent on the specific atmospheric and climatic conditions encountered.

Abstract The warming of terrestrial high‐latitude ecosystems, while increasing, will likely be asymmetric across seasons—where winter non‐growing seasons will warm more than summer‐growing seasons. Asymmetric winter warming in temperature‐sensitive ecosystems may delay spring phenological events by reducing the opportunity that a plants’ chilling requirement is met. Similarly, symmetric warming can advance spring phenology. To explore the impact of asymmetric warming on plant phenology, we applied a year‐round warming and a winter warming treatment to our experimental plots. Over a 2‐year period, we monitored leaf‐out and flowering phenology for 11 plant species. There was variation among species, however, both winter and year‐round warming, advanced the leaf‐out day and the first flowering day relative to the control treatment. Winter warming advanced leaf‐out and flowering phenology by 11.1 (±2.4) and 12.6 (±2.9) days respectively. However, year‐round warming had less of an impact advancing leaf‐out and flowering phenology by 5.1 (±2.1) and 10.0 (±3.0) days respectively. Our study provides direct evidence that asymmetric winter warming has a larger impact on plant phenology than symmetric year‐round warming. Increasing soil temperature in the winter from below to above freezing temperatures advanced the spring phenology of alpine plants. Winter warming increased soil temperature more than year‐round warming, which explains why phenology advanced under winter warming more than under year‐round warming. In addition, early or mid‐season flowering plant species displayed different phenology strategies in warmer winters. Relative to other ecosystems, alpine ecosystems such as the Tibetan Plateau will likely respond to asymmetric warming given the higher amplitude of winter temperature increases due to climatic warming. Our data indicate that seasonal variation in warming should be considered when predicting and modelling the response of alpine ecosystems to climatic change. A plain language summary is available for this article.

AbstractExtreme weather events, such as ice storms, are increasing and have potentially large impacts on forests, including belowground structures such as fine roots and mycorrhizal fungi. Many forest trees rely on the mutualistic relationship between mycorrhizal fungi and plants; a relationship that, when disrupted, can negatively impact tree net primary productivity. We took advantage of a large‐scale ice storm manipulation in the northeastern United States to test the hypothesis that increasing ice storm intensity and frequency would reduce ectomycorrhizal fungal root tips per unit root length and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal structures per unit root length, hereafter colonization. We found that ice storm intensity reduced spring ectomycorrhizal fungal and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization. However, these patterns changed in the fall, where ice storm intensity still reduced ectomycorrhizal fungal root tips, but arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization was higher in ice storm treatments than controls. The amount of ectomycorrhizal fungal root tips and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization differed seasonally: ectomycorrhizal fungal root tips were 1.7× higher in the spring than in the fall, while arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization was 3× higher in the fall than in the spring. Our results indicate that mycorrhizal fungal colonization responses to ice storm severity vary temporally and by mycorrhizal fungal type. Further, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi may recover from ice storms relatively quickly, potentially aiding forests in their recovery, whereas ice storms may have a long lasting impact on ectomycorrhizal fungi.

Effective societal responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic rely on an accurate representation of region-specific ecosystem properties and processes. However, this is limited by the scarcity and patchy distribution of field measurements. Here, we use a comprehensive, geo-referenced database of primary field measurements in 1,840 published studies across the Arctic to identify statistically significant spatial biases in field sampling and study citation across this globally important region. We find that 31% of all study citations are derived from sites located within 50 km of just two research sites: Toolik Lake in the USA and Abisko in Sweden. Furthermore, relatively colder, more rapidly warming and sparsely vegetated sites are under-sampled and under-recognized in terms of citations, particularly among microbiology-related studies. The poorly sampled and cited areas, mainly in the Canadian high-Arctic archipelago and the Arctic coastline of Russia, constitute a large fraction of the Arctic ice-free land area. Our results suggest that the current pattern of sampling and citation may bias the scientific consensuses that underpin attempts to accurately predict and effectively mitigate climate change in the region. Further work is required to increase both the quality and quantity of sampling, and incorporate existing literature from poorly cited areas to generate a more representative picture of Arctic climate change and its environmental impacts.