• Energy Research

Species richness is the core of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research. Nevertheless, it is difficult to accurately predict changes in plant species richness under different climate scenarios, especially in alpine biomes. In this study, we surveyed plant species richness from 2009 to 2017 in 75 alpine meadows (AM), 199 alpine steppes (AS), and 71 desert steppes (DS) in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, China. Along with 20 environmental factors relevant to species settlement, development, and survival, we first simulated the spatial pattern of plant species richness under current climate conditions using random forest modelling. Our results showed that simulated species richness matched well with observed values in the field, showing an evident decrease from meadows to steppes and then to deserts. Summer precipitation, which ranked first among the 20 environmental factors, was further confirmed to be the most critical driver of species richness distribution. Next, we simulated and compared species richness patterns under four different precipitation scenarios, increasing and decreasing summer precipitation by 20% and 10%, relative to the current species richness pattern. Our findings showed that species richness in response to altered precipitation was grassland-type specific, with meadows being sensitive to decreasing precipitation, steppes being sensitive to increasing precipitation, and deserts remaining resistant. In addition, species richness at low elevations was more sensitive to decreasing precipitation than to increasing precipitation, implying that droughts might have stronger influences than wetting on species composition. In contrast, species richness at high elevations (also in deserts) changed slightly under different precipitation scenarios, likely due to harsh physical conditions and small species pools for plant recruitment and survival. Finally, we suggest that policymakers and herdsmen pay more attention to alpine grasslands in central Tibet and at low elevations where species richness is sensitive to precipitation changes.

AbstractThere is growing evidence that land‐use management practices such as livestock grazing can strongly impact the local diversity, functioning, and stability of grassland communities. However, whether these impacts depend on environmental condition and propagate to larger spatial scales remains unclear. Using an 8‐year grassland exclosure experiment conducted at nine sites in the Tibetan Plateau covering a large precipitation gradient, we found that herbivore exclusion increased the temporal stability of alpine grassland biomass production at both the local and larger (site) spatial scales. Higher local community stability was attributed to greater stability of dominant species, whereas higher stability at the larger scale was linked to higher spatial asynchrony of productivity among local communities. Additionally, sites with higher mean annual precipitation had lower dominant species stability and lower grassland stability at both the spatial scales considered. Our study provides novel evidence that livestock grazing can impair grassland stability across spatial scales and climatic gradients.

Protists are essential components of soil microbial communities, mediating nutrient cycling and ecosystem functions in terrestrial ecosystems. However, their distribution patterns and driving factors, particularly, the relative importance of climate, plant and soil factors, remain largely unknown. This limits our understanding of soil protist roles in ecosystem functions and their responses to climate change. This is particularly a concern in dryland ecosystems where soil microbiomes are more important for ecosystem functions because plant diversity and growth are heavily constrained by environmental stresses. Here, we explored protist diversity and their driving factors in grassland soils on the Tibetan Plateau, which is a typical dryland region with yearly low temperatures. Soil protist diversity significantly decreased along the gradient of meadow, steppe, and desert. Soil protist diversity positively correlated with precipitation, plant biomass and soil nutrients, but these correlations were changed by grazing. Structural equation and random forest models demonstrated that precipitation dominated soil protist diversity directly and indirectly by influencing plant and soil factors. Soil protist community structure gradually shifted along meadow, steppe and desert, and was driven more by precipitation than by plant and soil factors. Soil protist community compositions were dominated by Cercozoa, Ciliophora and Chlorophyta. In particular, Ciliophora increased but Chlorophyta decreased in relative abundance along the gradient of meadow, steppe and desert. These results demonstrate that precipitation plays more important roles in driving soil protist diversity and community structure than plant and soil factors, suggesting that future precipitation change profoundly alters soil protist community and functions in dry grasslands.

Forage-livestock balance is important for sustainable management of alpine grasslands under global change, but the robustness of diverse algorithms for assessing forage-livestock balance is still unclear. This study compiled long-term (2009-2014) field observations of aboveground biomass (AGB). Using climate and remote sensing data, we evaluated the inter-annual dynamics of the forage-livestock balance on the Northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP). Here, we assumed that AGB dynamics in fenced grasslands (AGBF) is only driven by climate change; whereas AGB dynamics in open grasslands grazed by livestock (AGBG) is driven by a combination of climate change and human activities. Thus, human-induced change in AGB (AGBH) could be estimated via the difference between AGBF and AGBG. Furthermore, differences in the temporal trends between AGBF and AGBH could indicate the state of forage-livestock balance, overgrazed or not, in alpine grasslands. Our results showed that the overall status of the forage-livestock balance from 2000 to 2006 was overgrazed owing to poor climatic conditions. Ecological projects and economic policies for alpine grassland conservation had not been implemented at that time, which also resulted in local overgrazing. From 2006 to 2014, the alpine grasslands in some areas were in a less-grazed state. We suggest that the livestock number could potentially increase in northern NTP and should be reduced or strictly controlled to maintain the balance between livestock and forage in the southern and southeast areas. In conclusion, the results of this study suggest that the evaluation of the forage-livestock balance in the NTP should include the local climatic conditions and make better use of grassland resources while ensuring ecological security.

Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and rain-use efficiency (RUE) are important indicators in assessing the response of ecosystems to climate change. In this paper, the Changtang Plateau in the Tibetan Autonomous Region was selected as the study area to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of ANPP and RUE in grassland communities and their response to climate change. The results showed the following:(1) The spatial pattern of ANPP was closely related to rainfall on the Changtang Plateau. The average ANPP over the past 15 years increased gradually from the arid west to the humid east. A consistent pattern was exhibited in different grassland types and climate zones. (2) The RUE was higher at the east and west edges of the Changtang Plateau, especially in the arid west, but was lower in the center. From the perspective of different climatic zones, the average RUE in the southern Tibetan semiarid climate zone and the Ngari arid climate zone was significantly higher than that in other climate zones. However, the average RUE in different grassland types only varied from 0.07 to 0.09 g·m−2·mm−1. The spatial variation in RUE was more distinct in different climatic zones than in different grassland types. (3) Climate change influenced the interannual variation of ANPP and RUE, but the response of ANPP to rainfall showed a significant lag. The interannual change in RUE was negatively correlated with changes in precipitation. (4) In general, a greater area showed a significant increase rather than a decrease in ANPP on the Changtang Plateau, which meant that the grassland condition is improving. The temporal variation patterns of ANPP and RUE in different climate zones were consistent with the overall patterns on the Changtang Plateau, while the variation was not significant in different grassland types.

It is the most serious challenge to promote degraded grassland recovery currently facing the developing Tibetan Autonomous Region. We conducted field surveys of 75 grazing sites between 2009 and 2012 across the Northern Tibetan Plateau and described the spatial and climatic patterns of the occurrence of poisonous plants. Our results showed lower ratios of species richness (SprRatio), coverage (CovRatio), and biomass (BioRatio) of non-poisonous vs. poisonous plants in the semi-arid alpine steppe zone, where the growing season precipitation (GSP) is between 250 and 350 mm; however, this result is in contrast to the relatively wetter meadow (GSP >350 mm) and much drier desert-steppe (GSP <250 mm) communities. Results from generalized additive models (GAMs) further confirmed that precipitation is primarily responsible for the initially decreasing and then increasing tendency of compositional ratios of non-poisonous to poisonous species. The wide confidence bands at GSP <250 mm indicated that precipitation is not an effective indicator for predicting compositional changes in desert-steppe communities. When mean annual livestock grazing pressure was incorporated into the optimal GAMs, the model performance improved: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) decreased by 1.20 for SprRatio and 3.09 for BioRatio, and the deviance explained (R (2)) increased by 6.0% for SprRatio and 3.6% for BioRatio. Therefore, more detailed information on grazing disturbance (timing, frequency, and density) should be collected to disentangle the relative contribution of climate change and grazing activities to changes in community assembly and ecological functions of alpine grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau.

Climate models predict the further intensification of global warming in the future. Drylands, as one of the most fragile ecosystems, are vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought extremes. However, it is still unclear how plant traits interact with soil properties to regulate drylands’ responses to seasonal and interannual climate change. The vegetation sensitivity index (VSI) of desert scrubs in the Qaidam Basin (NE Tibetan Plateau) was assessed by summarizing the relative contributions of temperature (SGST), precipitation (SGSP), and drought (temperature vegetation dryness index, STVDI) to the dynamics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during plant growing months yearly from 2000 to 2015. Nutrient contents, including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in topsoils and leaves of plants, were measured for seven types of desert scrub communities at 22 sites in the summer of 2016. Multiple linear and structural equation models were used to reveal how leaf and soil nutrient regimes affect desert scrubs’ sensitivity to climate variability. The results showed that total soil nitrogen (STN) and leaf carbon content (LC), respectively, explained 25.9% and 17.0% of the VSI variance across different scrub communities. Structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that STN and total soil potassium (STK) mediated desert scrub’s VSI indirectly via SGST (with standardized path strength of −0.35 and +0.32, respectively) while LC indirectly via SGST and SGSP (with standardized path strength of −0.31 and −0.19, respectively). Neither soil nor leave nutrient contents alone could explain the VSI variance across different sites, except for the indirect influences of STN and STK via STVDI (−0.18 and 0.16, respectively). Overall, this study disentangled the relative importance of plant nutrient traits and soil nutrient availability in mediating the climatic sensitivity of desert scrubs in the Tibetan Plateau. Integrating soil nutrient availability with plant functional traits together is recommended to better understand the mechanisms behind dryland dynamics under global climate change.

Alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is known to be sensitive to both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. However, the magnitude and patterns of alpine vegetation dynamics and the driving mechanisms behind their variation on the TP remains under debate. In this study, we used updated MODIS Collection 6 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Terra satellite combined with linear regression and the Break for Additive Season and Trend model to reanalyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation change on the TP during 2000–2015. We then quantified the responses of vegetation variation to climatic and anthropogenic factors by coupling climatic and human footprint datasets. Results show that growing season NDVI (GNDVI) values increased significantly overall (0.0011 year−1, p < 0.01) during 2000–2015 and that 70.37% of vegetated area on the TP (23.47% significantly with p < 0.05) exhibited greening trends with the exception of the southwest TP. However, vegetation greenness experienced trend shifts from greening to browning in half of the ecosystem zones occurred around 2010, likely induced by spatially heterogeneous temporal trends of climate variables. The vegetation changes in the northeastern and southwestern TP were water limited, the mid-eastern TP exhibited strong temperature responses, and the south of TP was driven by a combination of temperature and solar radiation. Furthermore, we found that, to some extent, anthropogenic disturbances offset climate-driven vegetation greening and aggravated vegetation browning induced by water deficit. These findings suggest that the impact of anthropogenic activities on vegetation change might not overwhelm that of climate change at the region scale.