• Energy Research

South Africa is likely to experience higher temperatures and less rainfall as a result of climate change. Resulting changes in regional water endowments and soil moisture will affect the productivity of cropland, leading to changes in food production and international trade patterns. High population growth elsewhere in Africa and Asia will put further pressure on natural resources and food security in South Africa. Based on four climate change scenarios from two general circulation models (CSIRO and MIROC) and two IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A1B, B1), this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on global agriculture and explores two alternative adaptation scenarios for South Africa. The analysis uses an updated GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. For South Africa to adapt to the adverse consequences of global climate change, it would require yield improvements of more than 20 percent over baseline investments in agricultural research and development. A doubling of irrigation development, on the other hand, will not be sufficient to reverse adverse impacts from climate change in the country.

South Africa is likely to experience higher temperatures and less rainfall as a result of climate change. Resulting changes in regional water endowments and soil moisture will affect the productivity of cropland, leading to changes in food production and international trade patterns. High population growth elsewhere in Africa and Asia will put further pressure on natural resources and food security in South Africa. Based on four climate change scenarios from two general circulation models (CSIRO and MIROC) and two IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A1B, B1), this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on global agriculture and explores two alternative adaptation scenarios for South Africa. The analysis uses an updated GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. For South Africa to adapt to the adverse consequences of global climate change, it would require yield improvements of more than 20 percent over baseline investments in agricultural research and development. A doubling of irrigation development, on the other hand, will not be sufficient to reverse adverse impacts from climate change in the country.

Numerous reservoirs around the world provide multiple flow regulation functions; key among these are hydroelectricity production and water releases for irrigation. These functions contribute to energy and food security at national, regional and global levels. While reservoir operations for hydroelectricity production might support irrigation, there are also well-known cases where hydroelectricity production reduces water availability for irrigated food production. This study assesses these relationships at the global level using machine-learning techniques and multi-source datasets. We find that 54% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 507 thousand Megawatt) competes with irrigation. Regions where such competition exists include the Central United States, northern Europe, India, Central Asia and Oceania. On the other hand, 8% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 79 thousand Megawatt) complements irrigation, particularly in the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins of China, the East and West Coasts of the United States and most river basins of Southeast Asia, Canada and Russia. No significant relationship is found for the rest of the world. We further analyze the impact of climate variables on the relationships between hydropower and irrigation. Reservoir flood control functions that operate under increased precipitation levels appear to constrain hydroelectricity production in various river basins of the United States, South China and most basins in Europe and Oceania. On the other hand, increased reservoir evaporative losses and higher irrigation requirements due to higher potential evaporation levels may lead to increased tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower due to reduced water availability in regions with warmer climates, such as India, South China, and the Southern United States. With most reservoirs today being built for multiple purposes, it is important for policymakers to understand and plan for growing tradeoffs between key functions. This will be particularly important as climate mitigation calls for an increase in renewable energy while agro-hydrological impacts of climate change, population and economic growth and associated dietary change increase the need for irrigated food production in many regions round the world.

Numerous reservoirs around the world provide multiple flow regulation functions; key among these are hydroelectricity production and water releases for irrigation. These functions contribute to energy and food security at national, regional and global levels. While reservoir operations for hydroelectricity production might support irrigation, there are also well-known cases where hydroelectricity production reduces water availability for irrigated food production. This study assesses these relationships at the global level using machine-learning techniques and multi-source datasets. We find that 54% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 507 thousand Megawatt) competes with irrigation. Regions where such competition exists include the Central United States, northern Europe, India, Central Asia and Oceania. On the other hand, 8% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 79 thousand Megawatt) complements irrigation, particularly in the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins of China, the East and West Coasts of the United States and most river basins of Southeast Asia, Canada and Russia. No significant relationship is found for the rest of the world. We further analyze the impact of climate variables on the relationships between hydropower and irrigation. Reservoir flood control functions that operate under increased precipitation levels appear to constrain hydroelectricity production in various river basins of the United States, South China and most basins in Europe and Oceania. On the other hand, increased reservoir evaporative losses and higher irrigation requirements due to higher potential evaporation levels may lead to increased tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower due to reduced water availability in regions with warmer climates, such as India, South China, and the Southern United States. With most reservoirs today being built for multiple purposes, it is important for policymakers to understand and plan for growing tradeoffs between key functions. This will be particularly important as climate mitigation calls for an increase in renewable energy while agro-hydrological impacts of climate change, population and economic growth and associated dietary change increase the need for irrigated food production in many regions round the world.

Abstract Water plays a major role in the climate system and in mediating impacts of climate variability and change on all sectors of the economy. The incorporation of water resources modeling into integrated assessment models (IAMs) to study climate–hydrology processes, related water impacts and adaptation options is thus an area of interest, yet it poses a number of methodological challenges. In particular, models of economic activity, climate, water availability and use, and adaptation are developed at differing temporal and spatial scales and with different goals. This makes their integration highly complex and computationally demanding. In this review we highlight a set of modeling challenges in water resource systems, describe the state of the art of approaches to integrating water resources modeling with IAMs and economic modeling, and identify constraints and opportunities moving forward in the development of water resources modeling within the IAM frameworks.

Abstract Water plays a major role in the climate system and in mediating impacts of climate variability and change on all sectors of the economy. The incorporation of water resources modeling into integrated assessment models (IAMs) to study climate–hydrology processes, related water impacts and adaptation options is thus an area of interest, yet it poses a number of methodological challenges. In particular, models of economic activity, climate, water availability and use, and adaptation are developed at differing temporal and spatial scales and with different goals. This makes their integration highly complex and computationally demanding. In this review we highlight a set of modeling challenges in water resource systems, describe the state of the art of approaches to integrating water resources modeling with IAMs and economic modeling, and identify constraints and opportunities moving forward in the development of water resources modeling within the IAM frameworks.

Cette étude résume le concept de lien entre l'alimentation, l'énergie et la sécurité de l'eau (PEU de liens). L'objectif est de sensibiliser à l'importance du nexus et de permettre aux parties prenantes d'envisager les interconnexions entre les secteurs dans leur travail. Les QUELQUES liens sont discutés dans le contexte de l'Afrique au sud du Sahara (Ass) — en utilisant le Malawi et le Mozambique comme études de cas. Même si l'analyse simultanée des questions de sécurité alimentaire, énergétique et hydrique est essentielle compte tenu des interconnexions, résumant les interventions avec les QUELQUES approches nexus au Malawi et au Mozambique, nous avons constaté qu'il n'y a qu'un nombre limité d'interventions en place. De plus, cette étude passe en revue les modèles macro- et microéconomiques capables d'analyser les QUELQUES liens. Au niveau macroéconomique, les modèles d'équilibre général sont particulièrement discutés, car ils montrent des compromis et des synergies entre les interventions NEXUS à tous les niveaux économiques. Ces modèles peuvent aider les décideurs politiques à comprendre les effets de nexus ex ante et à les convaincre de penser au-delà de leurs départements politiques respectifs. Au micro-niveau, l'impact des interventions NEXUS peut être évalué avec des approches qualitatives et quantitatives. Il existe des défis spécifiques pour les interventions NEXUS en ce qui concerne l'agrégation et la planification du ciblage. Une analyse des données secondaires des interventions NEXUS montre que les données existantes ne sont pas suffisantes pour mener des recherches spécifiquement liées aux QUELQUES NEXUS. Les résultats de cette étude aideront les programmes de recherche à refléter les questions clés nécessaires pour améliorer l'adoption de QUELQUES technologies et à informer les décideurs lorsqu'ils formulent des politiques qui exploiteront les fortes synergies des investissements dans la sécurité alimentaire, l'énergie et l'eau. Este estudio resume el concepto del nexo de seguridad alimento-energía-agua (POCOS nexos). El objetivo es crear conciencia sobre la importancia del nexo y permitir que las partes interesadas consideren las interconexiones entre los sectores en su trabajo. Los POCOS nexos se discuten en el contexto de África al sur del Sáhara (SSA), utilizando Malawi y Mozambique como estudios de caso. A pesar de que analizar los problemas de seguridad alimentaria, energética e hídrica simultáneamente es fundamental dadas las interconexiones, resumiendo las intervenciones con el enfoque de POCOS nexos en Malawi y Mozambique, descubrimos que solo hay un número limitado de intervenciones implementadas. Además, este estudio revisa los modelos macro y microeconómicos que son capaces de analizar los POCOS nexos. En el nivel macro, se discuten especialmente los modelos de equilibrio general, porque muestran compensaciones y sinergias de las intervenciones de nexo en todos los niveles económicos. Estos modelos pueden ayudar a guiar la comprensión de los responsables políticos de los efectos de nexo ex ante y convencerlos de que piensen más allá de sus respectivos departamentos políticos. A nivel micro, el impacto de las intervenciones de Nexus se puede evaluar con enfoques cualitativos y cuantitativos. Existen desafíos específicos para las intervenciones de Nexus cuando se trata de la agregación y la planificación de la focalización. Un análisis de datos secundarios de las intervenciones de Nexus muestra que los datos existentes no son suficientes para realizar investigaciones específicamente relacionadas con los POCOS Nexus. Los resultados de este estudio ayudarán a los programas de investigación a reflejar las preguntas clave necesarias para mejorar la adopción de POCAS tecnologías e informar a los responsables políticos a medida que formulan políticas que explotarán las fuertes sinergias de la seguridad alimentaria, la energía y las inversiones en agua. This study summarizes the concept of the food-energy-water security nexus (FEW nexus). The aim is to create awareness about the importance of the nexus and to enable stakeholders to consider interconnections between the sectors in their work. The FEW nexus is discussed in the context of Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) — using Malawi and Mozambique as case studies. Even though analyzing food, energy, and water security issues simultaneously is critical given the interconnections, summarizing interventions with the FEW nexus approach in Malawi and Mozambique, we found that there are only a limited number of interventions in place. Additionally, this study reviews macro- and microeconomic models that are able to analyze the FEW nexus. On the macrolevel, especially general equilibrium models are discussed, because they show trade-offs and synergies of nexus interventions at all economic levels. These models can help guide policymakers' understanding of nexus effects ex ante and convince them to think beyond their respective political departments. On the microlevel, the impact of nexus interventions can be assessed with qualitative and quantitative approaches. There are specific challenges for nexus interventions when it comes to aggregation and planning of the targeting. A secondary data analysis of nexus interventions shows that existing data is not sufficient to conduct research specifically related to the FEW nexus. The results of this study will help research programs to reflect the key questions required to enhance adoption of FEW technologies and inform policymakers as they formulate policies that will exploit the strong synergies of food security, energy, and water investments. تلخص هذه الدراسة مفهوم العلاقة بين الأمن الغذائي والطاقة والمياه (عدد قليل من الروابط). والهدف من ذلك هو خلق الوعي بأهمية الصلة وتمكين أصحاب المصلحة من النظر في أوجه الترابط بين القطاعات في عملهم. وتناقش الصلة القليلة في سياق أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى - باستخدام ملاوي وموزامبيق كدراسات حالة. على الرغم من أن تحليل قضايا الغذاء والطاقة والأمن المائي في وقت واحد أمر بالغ الأهمية بالنظر إلى الترابط، وتلخيص التدخلات مع نهج الترابط القليل في ملاوي وموزامبيق، وجدنا أنه لا يوجد سوى عدد محدود من التدخلات. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، تستعرض هذه الدراسة نماذج الاقتصاد الكلي والجزئي القادرة على تحليل العلاقة القليلة. على المستوى الكلي، تتم مناقشة نماذج التوازن العام بشكل خاص، لأنها تُظهر المفاضلات والتآزر بين تدخلات الترابط على جميع المستويات الاقتصادية. يمكن أن تساعد هذه النماذج في توجيه فهم صانعي السياسات لتأثيرات الصلة مسبقًا وإقناعهم بالتفكير خارج إداراتهم السياسية. على المستوى الجزئي، يمكن تقييم تأثير تدخلات NEXUS من خلال مناهج نوعية وكمية. هناك تحديات محددة لتدخلات NEXUS عندما يتعلق الأمر بتجميع وتخطيط الاستهداف. يُظهر تحليل البيانات الثانوية لتدخلات الصلة أن البيانات الحالية ليست كافية لإجراء البحوث المتعلقة على وجه التحديد بالصلة القليلة. ستساعد نتائج هذه الدراسة البرامج البحثية على عكس الأسئلة الرئيسية المطلوبة لتعزيز اعتماد عدد قليل من التقنيات وإبلاغ صانعي السياسات أثناء قيامهم بصياغة سياسات من شأنها استغلال أوجه التآزر القوية بين الأمن الغذائي والطاقة والاستثمارات في المياه.

Cette étude résume le concept de lien entre l'alimentation, l'énergie et la sécurité de l'eau (PEU de liens). L'objectif est de sensibiliser à l'importance du nexus et de permettre aux parties prenantes d'envisager les interconnexions entre les secteurs dans leur travail. Les QUELQUES liens sont discutés dans le contexte de l'Afrique au sud du Sahara (Ass) — en utilisant le Malawi et le Mozambique comme études de cas. Même si l'analyse simultanée des questions de sécurité alimentaire, énergétique et hydrique est essentielle compte tenu des interconnexions, résumant les interventions avec les QUELQUES approches nexus au Malawi et au Mozambique, nous avons constaté qu'il n'y a qu'un nombre limité d'interventions en place. De plus, cette étude passe en revue les modèles macro- et microéconomiques capables d'analyser les QUELQUES liens. Au niveau macroéconomique, les modèles d'équilibre général sont particulièrement discutés, car ils montrent des compromis et des synergies entre les interventions NEXUS à tous les niveaux économiques. Ces modèles peuvent aider les décideurs politiques à comprendre les effets de nexus ex ante et à les convaincre de penser au-delà de leurs départements politiques respectifs. Au micro-niveau, l'impact des interventions NEXUS peut être évalué avec des approches qualitatives et quantitatives. Il existe des défis spécifiques pour les interventions NEXUS en ce qui concerne l'agrégation et la planification du ciblage. Une analyse des données secondaires des interventions NEXUS montre que les données existantes ne sont pas suffisantes pour mener des recherches spécifiquement liées aux QUELQUES NEXUS. Les résultats de cette étude aideront les programmes de recherche à refléter les questions clés nécessaires pour améliorer l'adoption de QUELQUES technologies et à informer les décideurs lorsqu'ils formulent des politiques qui exploiteront les fortes synergies des investissements dans la sécurité alimentaire, l'énergie et l'eau. Este estudio resume el concepto del nexo de seguridad alimento-energía-agua (POCOS nexos). El objetivo es crear conciencia sobre la importancia del nexo y permitir que las partes interesadas consideren las interconexiones entre los sectores en su trabajo. Los POCOS nexos se discuten en el contexto de África al sur del Sáhara (SSA), utilizando Malawi y Mozambique como estudios de caso. A pesar de que analizar los problemas de seguridad alimentaria, energética e hídrica simultáneamente es fundamental dadas las interconexiones, resumiendo las intervenciones con el enfoque de POCOS nexos en Malawi y Mozambique, descubrimos que solo hay un número limitado de intervenciones implementadas. Además, este estudio revisa los modelos macro y microeconómicos que son capaces de analizar los POCOS nexos. En el nivel macro, se discuten especialmente los modelos de equilibrio general, porque muestran compensaciones y sinergias de las intervenciones de nexo en todos los niveles económicos. Estos modelos pueden ayudar a guiar la comprensión de los responsables políticos de los efectos de nexo ex ante y convencerlos de que piensen más allá de sus respectivos departamentos políticos. A nivel micro, el impacto de las intervenciones de Nexus se puede evaluar con enfoques cualitativos y cuantitativos. Existen desafíos específicos para las intervenciones de Nexus cuando se trata de la agregación y la planificación de la focalización. Un análisis de datos secundarios de las intervenciones de Nexus muestra que los datos existentes no son suficientes para realizar investigaciones específicamente relacionadas con los POCOS Nexus. Los resultados de este estudio ayudarán a los programas de investigación a reflejar las preguntas clave necesarias para mejorar la adopción de POCAS tecnologías e informar a los responsables políticos a medida que formulan políticas que explotarán las fuertes sinergias de la seguridad alimentaria, la energía y las inversiones en agua. This study summarizes the concept of the food-energy-water security nexus (FEW nexus). The aim is to create awareness about the importance of the nexus and to enable stakeholders to consider interconnections between the sectors in their work. The FEW nexus is discussed in the context of Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) — using Malawi and Mozambique as case studies. Even though analyzing food, energy, and water security issues simultaneously is critical given the interconnections, summarizing interventions with the FEW nexus approach in Malawi and Mozambique, we found that there are only a limited number of interventions in place. Additionally, this study reviews macro- and microeconomic models that are able to analyze the FEW nexus. On the macrolevel, especially general equilibrium models are discussed, because they show trade-offs and synergies of nexus interventions at all economic levels. These models can help guide policymakers' understanding of nexus effects ex ante and convince them to think beyond their respective political departments. On the microlevel, the impact of nexus interventions can be assessed with qualitative and quantitative approaches. There are specific challenges for nexus interventions when it comes to aggregation and planning of the targeting. A secondary data analysis of nexus interventions shows that existing data is not sufficient to conduct research specifically related to the FEW nexus. The results of this study will help research programs to reflect the key questions required to enhance adoption of FEW technologies and inform policymakers as they formulate policies that will exploit the strong synergies of food security, energy, and water investments. تلخص هذه الدراسة مفهوم العلاقة بين الأمن الغذائي والطاقة والمياه (عدد قليل من الروابط). والهدف من ذلك هو خلق الوعي بأهمية الصلة وتمكين أصحاب المصلحة من النظر في أوجه الترابط بين القطاعات في عملهم. وتناقش الصلة القليلة في سياق أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى - باستخدام ملاوي وموزامبيق كدراسات حالة. على الرغم من أن تحليل قضايا الغذاء والطاقة والأمن المائي في وقت واحد أمر بالغ الأهمية بالنظر إلى الترابط، وتلخيص التدخلات مع نهج الترابط القليل في ملاوي وموزامبيق، وجدنا أنه لا يوجد سوى عدد محدود من التدخلات. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، تستعرض هذه الدراسة نماذج الاقتصاد الكلي والجزئي القادرة على تحليل العلاقة القليلة. على المستوى الكلي، تتم مناقشة نماذج التوازن العام بشكل خاص، لأنها تُظهر المفاضلات والتآزر بين تدخلات الترابط على جميع المستويات الاقتصادية. يمكن أن تساعد هذه النماذج في توجيه فهم صانعي السياسات لتأثيرات الصلة مسبقًا وإقناعهم بالتفكير خارج إداراتهم السياسية. على المستوى الجزئي، يمكن تقييم تأثير تدخلات NEXUS من خلال مناهج نوعية وكمية. هناك تحديات محددة لتدخلات NEXUS عندما يتعلق الأمر بتجميع وتخطيط الاستهداف. يُظهر تحليل البيانات الثانوية لتدخلات الصلة أن البيانات الحالية ليست كافية لإجراء البحوث المتعلقة على وجه التحديد بالصلة القليلة. ستساعد نتائج هذه الدراسة البرامج البحثية على عكس الأسئلة الرئيسية المطلوبة لتعزيز اعتماد عدد قليل من التقنيات وإبلاغ صانعي السياسات أثناء قيامهم بصياغة سياسات من شأنها استغلال أوجه التآزر القوية بين الأمن الغذائي والطاقة والاستثمارات في المياه.