• Energy Research

AbstractGlobally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

Abstract As climatic changes continue to drive increases in the frequency and severity of forest fires, it is critical to understand all of the factors influencing the risk of forest fire. Using a spatial dataset of areas burnt over a 65 year period in a 528 343 ha study area, we examined three possible drivers of flammability dynamics. These were: that forests became more flammable as fine biomass (fuel) returned following disturbance (H1), that disturbance increased flammability by initiating dense understorey growth that later self-thinned (H2), and that climatic effects were more important than either of these internal dynamics (H3). We found that forests were unlikely to burn for a short ‘young’ period (5–7 years) following fire, very likely to burn as the regrowing understorey became taller and denser (regrowth period), then after a total post-disturbance period of 43–56 years (young + regrowth periods), fire became unlikely and continued to decrease in likelihood (mature period). This trend did not change as the climate warmed, although increases in synoptic variability (mean changes in synoptic systems per season) had a pronounced effect on wildfire likelihood overall. Young forest and regrowth forest became increasingly likely to burn in years of greater synoptic variability and the time taken for forests to mature increased, but in years with the most severe synoptic variability, mature forests were the least likely to burn. Our findings offer an explanation for fire behaviour in numerous long-term studies in diverse forest types globally and indicate that, even in the face of a warming climate, ‘ecologically-cooperative’ approaches may be employed that reinforce rather than disrupt natural ecological controls on forest fire. These range from traditional indigenous fire knowledge, to modern targeting of suppression resources to capitalise on the benefits of self-thinning, and minimise the extent of dense regrowth in the landscape.

ABSTRACTMany forest types globally have been subject to an increase in the frequency of, and area burnt by, high‐severity wildfire. Here we explore the role that previous disturbance has played in increasing the extent and severity of subsequent forest fires. We summarise evidence documenting and explaining the mechanisms underpinning a pulse of flammability that may follow disturbances such as fire, logging, clearing or windthrow (a process we term disturbance‐stimulated flammability). Disturbance sometimes initiates a short initial period of low flammability, but then drives an extended period of increased flammability as vegetation regrows. Our analysis initially focuses on well‐documented cases in Australia, but we also discuss where these pattens may apply elsewhere, including in the Northern Hemisphere. We outline the mechanisms by which disturbance drives flammability through disrupting the ecological controls that limit it in undisturbed forests. We then develop and test a conceptual model to aid prediction of woody vegetation communities where such patterns of disturbance‐stimulated flammability may occur. We discuss the interaction of ecological controls with climate change, which is driving larger and more severe fires. We also explore the current state of knowledge around the point where disturbed, fire‐prone stands are sufficiently widespread in landscapes that they may promote spatial contagion of high‐severity wildfire that overwhelms any reduction in fire spread offered by less‐flammable stands.We discuss how land managers might deal with the major challenges that changes in landscape cover and altered fire regimes may have created. This is especially pertinent in landscapes now dominated by extensive areas of young forest regenerating after logging, regrowing following broadscale fire including prescribed burning, or regenerating following agricultural land abandonment.Where disturbance is found to stimulate flammability, then key management actions should consider the long‐term benefits of: (i) limiting disturbance‐based management like logging or burning that creates young forests and triggers understorey development; (ii) protecting young forests from disturbances and assisting them to transition to an older, less‐flammable state; and (iii) reinforcing the fire‐inhibitory properties of older, less‐flammable stands through methods for rapid fire detection and suppression.