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12 Pág. Mixed forests are suggested as a strategic adaptation of forest management to climate change. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) are tree species of high economic and ecological value for European forestry. Both species coexist naturally in a large part of their distributions but there is a lack of knowledge on the ecological functioning of mixtures of these species and how to manage such stands. This paper analyses these species’ intra- and inter-specific competition, including size-symmetric vs. size-asymmetric competition, and explore the effect of weather conditions on tree growth and competition. We studied basal area growth at tree level for Scots pine and Norway spruce in mixed versus pure stands in 22 triplets of fully-stocked plots along a broad range of ecological conditions across Europe. Stand inventory and increment cores provided insights into how species mixing modifies tree growth compared with neighbouring pure stands. Five different competition indices, weather variables and their interactions were included and checked in basal area growth models using a linear mixed model approach. Interspecific size-asymmetric competition strongly influenced growth for both tree species, and was modulated by weather conditions. However, species height stratification in mixed stands resulted in a greater tree basal area growth of Scots pine (10.5 cm2 year−1) than in pure stands (9.3 cm2 year−1), as this species occupies the upper canopy layer. Scots pine growth depended on temperature and drought, whereas Norway spruce growth was influenced only by drought. Interspecific site-asymmetric competition increased in cold winters for Scots pine, and decreased after a drought year for Norway spruce. Although mixtures of these species may reduce tree size for Norway spruce, our results suggest that this could be offset by faster growth in Scots pine. How inter-specific competition and weather conditions alter tree growth may have strong implications for the management of Scots pine-Norway spruce mixtures along the rotation period into the ongoing climate change scenario. The networking of this study was supported by the REFORM project (number FR-2017/0001, Resilience of forest mixtures: Mixed Species forest management. Lowering risk, increasing resilience) from the ERA-Net Sumforest. We thank national funders of REFORM project (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation: PCIN2017-026, Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) S-SUMFOREST-17-1, Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) FR-2017/0001) and those funders for the support to non-participants in the REFORM project (Denmark: Contract between Danish Ministry of Environment and Food and Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management of UCPH; Estonia: Estonian University of Life Sciences projects number P180024MIME and P200029MIME; Poland: EU CARE4C project (GA 778322) supported by the Polish Government MNiSW2018-2021 matching fund (W117/H2020/2018); Slovakia: APVV-15-0265). We also thank to all national project partners and forest owners who allowed us to establish and measure the triplets in this study. Peer reviewed

12 Pág. Mixed forests are suggested as a strategic adaptation of forest management to climate change. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) are tree species of high economic and ecological value for European forestry. Both species coexist naturally in a large part of their distributions but there is a lack of knowledge on the ecological functioning of mixtures of these species and how to manage such stands. This paper analyses these species’ intra- and inter-specific competition, including size-symmetric vs. size-asymmetric competition, and explore the effect of weather conditions on tree growth and competition. We studied basal area growth at tree level for Scots pine and Norway spruce in mixed versus pure stands in 22 triplets of fully-stocked plots along a broad range of ecological conditions across Europe. Stand inventory and increment cores provided insights into how species mixing modifies tree growth compared with neighbouring pure stands. Five different competition indices, weather variables and their interactions were included and checked in basal area growth models using a linear mixed model approach. Interspecific size-asymmetric competition strongly influenced growth for both tree species, and was modulated by weather conditions. However, species height stratification in mixed stands resulted in a greater tree basal area growth of Scots pine (10.5 cm2 year−1) than in pure stands (9.3 cm2 year−1), as this species occupies the upper canopy layer. Scots pine growth depended on temperature and drought, whereas Norway spruce growth was influenced only by drought. Interspecific site-asymmetric competition increased in cold winters for Scots pine, and decreased after a drought year for Norway spruce. Although mixtures of these species may reduce tree size for Norway spruce, our results suggest that this could be offset by faster growth in Scots pine. How inter-specific competition and weather conditions alter tree growth may have strong implications for the management of Scots pine-Norway spruce mixtures along the rotation period into the ongoing climate change scenario. The networking of this study was supported by the REFORM project (number FR-2017/0001, Resilience of forest mixtures: Mixed Species forest management. Lowering risk, increasing resilience) from the ERA-Net Sumforest. We thank national funders of REFORM project (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation: PCIN2017-026, Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) S-SUMFOREST-17-1, Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) FR-2017/0001) and those funders for the support to non-participants in the REFORM project (Denmark: Contract between Danish Ministry of Environment and Food and Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management of UCPH; Estonia: Estonian University of Life Sciences projects number P180024MIME and P200029MIME; Poland: EU CARE4C project (GA 778322) supported by the Polish Government MNiSW2018-2021 matching fund (W117/H2020/2018); Slovakia: APVV-15-0265). We also thank to all national project partners and forest owners who allowed us to establish and measure the triplets in this study. Peer reviewed

Abstract A methodological framework is provided for the quantification of climate change effects on site index. Spatio-temporal predictions of site index are derived for six major tree species in the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg using simplified universal kriging (UK) based on large data sets from forest inventories and a climate sensitive site-index model. It is shown by a simulation study that, with the underlying large sample size, residual kriging using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the mean function leads to an approximately unbiased spatial predictor. Moreover, the simulated coverage probabilities of resulting prediction intervals are quite close to the required level. B-spline regression techniques are applied to model nonlinear cause-and-effect curves for estimating site indexes at existing inventory plots dependent on retrospective climate covariates. The spatially structured error is modeled by exponential covariance functions. The mean model is then applied to downscaled climate projection data to spatially predict the relative changes of site index under perturbed climate conditions. Applying climate projections of an existing regional climate model based on IPCC emission scenarios A1B and A2, it is found that site index of all tree species would be decreased in lowland areas, and may increase in mountainous regions. Silver fir and common oak stands would also show increased site indexes in mountainous regions, but further extended to lower elevation levels. Site conditions in the Alpine foothills may remain highly productive for growth of Norway spruce, Baden-Wurttemberg’s most dominant tree species. Whereas site index of common beech and Douglas-fir may decrease to almost the same relative amount and on nearly the same sites as Norway spruce, site index of Scots pine may be less affected by future climate change.

Abstract A methodological framework is provided for the quantification of climate change effects on site index. Spatio-temporal predictions of site index are derived for six major tree species in the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg using simplified universal kriging (UK) based on large data sets from forest inventories and a climate sensitive site-index model. It is shown by a simulation study that, with the underlying large sample size, residual kriging using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the mean function leads to an approximately unbiased spatial predictor. Moreover, the simulated coverage probabilities of resulting prediction intervals are quite close to the required level. B-spline regression techniques are applied to model nonlinear cause-and-effect curves for estimating site indexes at existing inventory plots dependent on retrospective climate covariates. The spatially structured error is modeled by exponential covariance functions. The mean model is then applied to downscaled climate projection data to spatially predict the relative changes of site index under perturbed climate conditions. Applying climate projections of an existing regional climate model based on IPCC emission scenarios A1B and A2, it is found that site index of all tree species would be decreased in lowland areas, and may increase in mountainous regions. Silver fir and common oak stands would also show increased site indexes in mountainous regions, but further extended to lower elevation levels. Site conditions in the Alpine foothills may remain highly productive for growth of Norway spruce, Baden-Wurttemberg’s most dominant tree species. Whereas site index of common beech and Douglas-fir may decrease to almost the same relative amount and on nearly the same sites as Norway spruce, site index of Scots pine may be less affected by future climate change.