• Energy Research

The paper contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targeting Life Below Water by introducing user-friendly modeling approaches. It delves into the impact of abiotic factors on the first two trophic levels within the marine ecosystem, both naturally and due to human influence. Specifically, the study examines the connections between environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, salinity, nutrients) and plankton along the Romanian Black Sea coast during the warm season over a decade. The research develops models to forecast zooplankton proliferation using machine learning (ML) algorithms and gathered data. Water temperature significantly affects copepods and “other groups” of zooplankton densities during the warm season. Conversely, no discernible impact is observed on dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans blooms. Salinity fluctuations notably influence typical phytoplankton proliferation, with phosphate concentrations primarily driving widespread blooms. The study explores two scenarios for forecasting zooplankton growth: Business as Usual, predicting modest increases in temperature, salinity, and constant nutrient levels, and the Mild scenario, projecting substantial temperature and salinity increases alongside significant nutrient decrease by 2042. The findings underscore high densities of Noctiluca scintillans under both scenarios, particularly pronounced in the second scenario, surpassing the first by around 70%. These findings, indicative of a eutrophic ecosystem, underscore the potential implications of altered abiotic factors on ecosystem health, aligning with SDGs focused on Life Below Water.

Mesozooplankton are highly responsive to environmental changes, making their population dynamics and species composition important indicators of large-scale oceanic conditions. This study investigates the mesozooplankton composition, emphasizing biomass values across all three marine reporting units in the Romanian Black Sea from 2013 to 2020, covering 45 stations that represent transitional, coastal, and marine waters during the warm season. It also examines environmental parameters, such as temperature, salinity, and nutrient levels associated with eutrophication, that impact the mesozooplankton, as well as the environmental status of the pelagic habitat in this region, influenced by various hydrological and anthropogenic factors. Statistical analyses, including multivariate methods, were employed to investigate correlations between mesozooplankton biomass and environmental parameters, facilitating ecological assessments in accordance with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) Descriptors 1 (Biodiversity) and 5 (Eutrophication) using indicators such as Mesozooplankton bBiomass, Copepoda Biomass, and Noctiluca scintillans iomass. The results indicated that Mesozooplankton and Copepoda Biomass did not reach good ecological status (GES). However, the Noctiluca scintillans Biomass indicator demonstrated that all marine reporting units achieved GES during the warm seasons. These findings underscore the dynamic nature of pelagic habitats and highlight the importance of ongoing monitoring to inform policy and conservation efforts.

This study aims to develop a methodology for identifying predominant pressures on the marine ecosystem, emphasizing the significance of examining these pressures and the necessity for management scenarios. The research focuses on how the Black Sea ecosystem responds to the combined effects of human pressures, climate change, and policies. An in-depth analysis was conducted on environmental pressures affecting the Romanian Black Sea, highlighting dominant pressures such as physical habitat loss, hydrocarbon introduction, and non-indigenous species invasion. The research employs a novel methodological approach to assess the implications of these pressures under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1 “Taking the Green Road”, SSP2 “Middle of the Road”, and SSP5 “Taking the Highway”. The findings reveal a complex interplay between economic development and environmental conservation, with each pathway presenting distinct outcomes for marine ecosystems. Recent developments, including beach rehabilitation, maritime transport, and oil and gas exploitation, have overshadowed traditional pressures such as nutrient introduction and fishing. The study identifies the increasing vulnerability of critical habitats to anthropogenic pressures, with the rehabilitation of these ecosystems remaining challenging even under reduced pressures. The results underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to enhance the Black Sea ecosystem’s sustainability and resilience. The study’s insights are important for developing management strategies that address ongoing environmental challenges. This research provides knowledge for policymakers and stakeholders involved in marine management and conservation efforts in the Black Sea region, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of human activities and climate change on marine ecosystems.