• Energy Research

Abstract While achieving net-zero emissions is likely to stabilize the long-term global temperature, the possibility of continued warming and extreme events could cause those efforts to be perceived as a failure. Leveraging decarbonization scenarios from multiple global climate models, we find that much of the world faces >30% probability of decadal warming after net-zero CO2 emissions are achieved, and most areas exhibit >10% probability of exceeding the most extreme hot and wet events of the decarbonization period. Further, substantial fractions of the global population and gross domestic product could experience post-net-zero warming, including hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars in the United States, China and India during the decade following net-zero. This likelihood highlights the possibility that some of the most populous, wealthy, and powerful regions may experience climatic conditions that could be perceived – at least in the near-term – to indicate that climate stabilization policies have failed.

Nous nous trouvons à un carrefour critique pour la gouvernance future de la haute mer, mais l'éloignement perçu de l'océan mondial crée un obstacle psychologique pour que les gens s'y engagent. Compte tenu des défis de la surexploitation, de l'accès inéquitable et d'autres préoccupations en matière de durabilité et d'équité, les mécanismes actuels de gouvernance des océans ne sont pas adaptés à leur objectif. Cette décennie offre des opportunités d'impact direct sur la gouvernance des océans, cependant, déclencher une transformation mondiale sur la façon dont nous utilisons et protégeons la moitié de notre planète nécessite un effort concerté guidé par des valeurs et des principes partagés entre les régions et les secteurs. L'objectif de la série d'ateliers décrits dans ce document était d'entreprendre un processus de réflexion sur l'avenir qui pourrait utiliser le cadre Nature Futures comme un mécanisme pour apporter plus d'énergie transformatrice dans la façon dont les humains conceptualisent la haute mer et donc comment nous visons à gouverner l'océan. Nous avons constaté que l'engagement avec l'avenir à travers des récits de science-fiction permettait une appréciation plus radicale de ce qui pourrait être et que l'infusion d'éléments artistiques dans la science peut inspirer un public au-delà du milieu universitaire. Ainsi, les efforts créatifs de coproduction qui favorisent et encouragent l'imagination pour relever les défis actuels devraient être considérés comme des outils importants dans l'interface science-politique, également comme un moyen de susciter des réponses empathiques. Cette série d'ateliers était une première étape, et, espérons-le, prometteuse, vers la génération d'une pratique plus créative dans la façon dont nous imaginons et agissons pour un avenir meilleur pour la haute mer. Nos encontramos en una encrucijada crítica para la futura gobernanza de la alta mar, pero la lejanía percibida del océano global crea una barrera psicológica para que las personas se involucren con él. Dados los desafíos de la sobreexplotación, el acceso inequitativo y otras preocupaciones de sostenibilidad y equidad, los mecanismos actuales de gobernanza de los océanos no son adecuados para su propósito. Esta década ofrece oportunidades para un impacto directo en la gobernanza de los océanos, sin embargo, desencadenar una transformación global sobre cómo usamos y protegemos la mitad de nuestro planeta requiere un esfuerzo concertado que se guíe por valores y principios compartidos en todas las regiones y sectores. El objetivo de la serie de talleres descritos en este documento era emprender un proceso de pensamiento sobre el futuro que pudiera utilizar el Marco de Futuros de la Naturaleza como un mecanismo para aportar más energía transformadora a la forma en que los humanos conceptualizan la alta mar y, por lo tanto, cómo pretendemos gobernar el océano. Descubrimos que comprometerse con el futuro a través de narrativas de ciencia ficción permitía una apreciación más radical de lo que podría ser e infundir a la ciencia elementos artísticos puede inspirar a audiencias más allá de la academia. Por lo tanto, los esfuerzos creativos de coproducción que promueven y fomentan la imaginación para abordar los desafíos actuales deben considerarse como herramientas importantes en la interfaz ciencia-política, también como una forma de obtener respuestas empáticas. Esta serie de talleres fue un primer paso, y esperemos que prometedor, hacia la generación de una praxis más creativa en la forma en que imaginamos y luego actuamos para un futuro mejor para la alta mar. We find ourselves at a critical crossroads for the future governance of the high seas, but the perceived remoteness of the global ocean creates a psychological barrier for people to engage with it. Given challenges of overexploitation, inequitable access and other sustainability and equity concerns, current ocean governance mechanisms are not fit-for-purpose. This decade offers opportunities for direct impact on ocean governance, however, triggering a global transformation on how we use and protect the half of our planet requires a concerted effort that is guided by shared values and principles across regions and sectors. The aim of the series of workshops outlined in this paper, was to undertake a futures thinking process that could use the Nature Futures Framework as a mechanism to bring more transformative energy into how humans conceptualise the high seas and therefore how we aim to govern the ocean. We found that engaging with the future through science fiction narratives allowed a more radical appreciation of what could be and infusing science with artistic elements can inspire audiences beyond academia. Thus, creative endeavours of co-production that promote and encourage imagination to address current challenges should be considered as important tools in the science-policy interface, also as a way to elicit empathetic responses. This workshop series was a first, and hopefully promising, step towards generating a more creative praxis in how we imagine and then act for a better future for the high seas. نجد أنفسنا في مفترق طرق حاسم للإدارة المستقبلية لأعالي البحار، لكن البعد المتصور للمحيط العالمي يخلق حاجزًا نفسيًا أمام الناس للتعامل معه. بالنظر إلى تحديات الاستغلال المفرط والوصول غير العادل وغيرها من شواغل الاستدامة والإنصاف، فإن آليات إدارة المحيطات الحالية ليست مناسبة للغرض. يوفر هذا العقد فرصًا للتأثير المباشر على إدارة المحيطات، ومع ذلك، فإن إحداث تحول عالمي حول كيفية استخدامنا لنصف كوكبنا وحمايته يتطلب جهدًا متضافرًا يسترشد بالقيم والمبادئ المشتركة عبر المناطق والقطاعات. كان الهدف من سلسلة ورش العمل الموضحة في هذه الورقة هو إجراء عملية تفكير مستقبلي يمكن أن تستخدم إطار عمل مستقبل الطبيعة كآلية لجلب المزيد من الطاقة التحويلية إلى كيفية تصور البشر لأعالي البحار وبالتالي كيف نهدف إلى حكم المحيط. وجدنا أن الانخراط في المستقبل من خلال روايات الخيال العلمي سمح بتقدير أكثر جذرية لما يمكن أن يكون وغرس العلم بالعناصر الفنية يمكن أن يلهم الجماهير خارج الأوساط الأكاديمية. وبالتالي، يجب اعتبار المساعي الإبداعية للإنتاج المشترك التي تعزز وتشجع الخيال لمواجهة التحديات الحالية أدوات مهمة في واجهة العلوم والسياسات، وأيضًا كوسيلة لاستنباط استجابات متعاطفة. كانت سلسلة ورش العمل هذه خطوة أولى، ونأمل أن تكون واعدة، نحو توليد ممارسة أكثر إبداعًا في كيفية تخيلنا ثم العمل من أجل مستقبل أفضل لأعالي البحار.

Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, future scenarios. We demonstrate this with a creative world-building effort set in Lagos, Nigeria, in the year 2199. Further, we employ story-based scenario development, and create a learning-oriented, web-based game that allows users to experience stories in an open-ended, text-based adventure style. This collaborative process blended scientific research, story-telling, and artistic co-creation to iteratively construct the game ‘Lagos2199’. The first use-case of Lagos2199 is documented herein, with corresponding survey results from the student users. This work has three core conclusions. First, the unique reality that sea level rise will literally re-draw maps can be leveraged as an entry-point for world-building and scenario development of the future. Second, such a scenario can be blended with storytelling, art, and music to create a multi-dimensional, immersive exploration of ecological and social change. Third, this kind of game experience can serve an important pedagogical role in climate change education. Providing the next generation of citizens with fluency in both climate change impacts and how society will interact with such impacts, is critical for providing adaptive capacity over the coming decades and centuries of accelerating global change.

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.

Abstract Climate change scenarios are typically based on trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions out into the future. These emissions are then incorporated into climate and earth system models to simulate pathways of global climate change. These pathways are often communicated as the average of numerous model simulations. Though essential for calculating the role of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, this approach inadvertently masks the fact that our future will conform to something akin to a single model simulation, or storyline—rather than the average of many simulations. Human responses to and interactions with these climate storylines will not necessarily be expected or rational. As such, potential social surprises could lead to multiple plotlines emerging from a single earth system storyline. Such social surprises are explored in three examples: net zero emissions achievement, low climate sensitivity, and solar climate intervention. Climate change scenarios are fundamentally dependent on policy pathways that in practice will be influenced by public perception and expectation. Thus, it is essential for climate change scenarios to recognize and incorporate the potential for heterogeneous social surprises to unexpected climate changes.

Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. To date, most work on this topic has imagined that an international organization like the United Nations or an international coalition of states will synchronize their efforts to deploy climate intervention at ideal latitudes to maximize global effect. Nearly all climate model simulations run-to-date have assumed this. Thus, our understanding of the science of climate intervention is largely based on an ideal of perfect geopolitical coordination. However, geopolitical uncertainties make this scenario unlikely and the costs of climate intervention are sufficiently low that many states could comfortably finance a climate intervention program that could have global consequences. This paper uses game theory to elucidate the conditions that might make a state more or less likely to begin unilateral climate intervention (UCI). We solve this game for several specific scientific, economic, and climatological conditions that change the likelihood of a government starting its own climate intervention program without the participation of the broader international community. Specifically, we demonstrate that the plausibility of UCI is linked to our scientific understanding of three key elements: (1) the effectiveness of climate intervention strategies, (2) the sensitivity of specific governments to punishment by other states, and (3) satisfaction with climate and weather in the present. We conclude by discussing how this formal game theory model informs the design of future earth system model simulations of UCI, international agreements related to climate intervention, and the development of solar climate intervention technologies.