• Energy Research
• Environmental Research: Climate close

Abstract While achieving net-zero emissions is likely to stabilize the long-term global temperature, the possibility of continued warming and extreme events could cause those efforts to be perceived as a failure. Leveraging decarbonization scenarios from multiple global climate models, we find that much of the world faces >30% probability of decadal warming after net-zero CO2 emissions are achieved, and most areas exhibit >10% probability of exceeding the most extreme hot and wet events of the decarbonization period. Further, substantial fractions of the global population and gross domestic product could experience post-net-zero warming, including hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars in the United States, China and India during the decade following net-zero. This likelihood highlights the possibility that some of the most populous, wealthy, and powerful regions may experience climatic conditions that could be perceived – at least in the near-term – to indicate that climate stabilization policies have failed.