• Energy Research

Abstract Biomass action plans in many European countries seek to expand biomass heat and fuel supply, mainly to be supplied by peripheral, agricultural regions. We develop a two-plus-ten-region energy-focused computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that acknowledges land competition in analysing the sub-state local-regional economic implications of such a strategy, embedded within a global context. Our model is based on a full cost analysis of selected biomass technologies covering a range of agricultural and forestry crops, as well as thermal insulation. The local-regional macroeconomic effects differ significantly across technologies and are governed by factors such as net labour intensity in crop production. The high land intensity of agricultural biomass products crowds out conventional agriculture, and thus lowers employment and drives up land prices and the consumer price index. The regional economic results show that net employment effects are positive for all forestry based biomass energy, and also show for which agriculture based biomass systems this is true, even when accounting for land competition. When regional consumer price development governs regional wages or when the agricultural sector is in strong enough competition to the international market, positive employment and welfare impacts vanish fully for agriculture based bio-energy.

EU climate and energy policy defines ambitious objectives for the Member States, requiring a fundamental change in energy systems. In an interdisciplinary approach, starting with welfare-generating energy services instead of energy flows, we analyse restructuring options for the Austrian energy system. We extend the concept of stabilization wedges by Pacala and Socolow and integrate technological and behavioural options into a structural energy model, complemented by an economic evaluation in an input-output analysis. We apply the energy service based approach to a transformation of the Austrian energy system that meets the EU 2020 emission targets. We estimate that this would require on average additional investment of about 6 billion € p.a. over a twelve year period. This investment allows to tap savings in operating costs (predominantly energy costs) of up to 4.3 billion € at the end of the period, when using a conservative assumption of non-rising energy prices.

Abstract This paper investigates the impacts of CO2 tax schemes on CO2 emissions, equity and macroeconomic indicators in Austria with the macroeconomic model DYNK[AUT]. Our scenarios focus on non-ETS CO2 emissions and comprise different tax rates and revenue recycling options (lower labor taxes, lower VAT and lump sum payments). The short-term comparative scenario analysis indicates that CO2 taxes without recycling lead to significant CO2 emission reductions at moderate economic costs. Equity impacts on households depend on the indicator used but can be regressive without recycling. Most recycling schemes can achieve a double dividend, i.e. emission reductions and increases in GDP. Lump sum payments are less efficient than reducing the VAT or labor taxes. Equity impacts are progressive with lump sum payments, rather proportional with lower VAT and regressive with lower labor taxes. A combination of recycling schemes and/or a restriction of lump sum payments to lower income households can minimize the trade-off between equity and efficiency. Our simulations suggest that well-designed CO2 tax schemes could be a crucial and socially acceptable element within a comprehensive policy package to achieve GHG emission targets for non-ETS sectors in Austria.

Identifying and assessing the fairness and acceptability of climate mitigation policies requires not only the application of sound interdisciplinary scientific methods, but also the consideration of stakeholder expertise and values. We applied such an approach to a model analysis of climate mitigation measures and compensation measures for vulnerable households in the buildings and mobility sectors in Austria. We integrated stakeholder knowledge and values by conducting two interactive stakeholder workshops and by a continuous engagement dialogue with a Stakeholder Board (SB) representing key Austrian institutions. The first workshop highlighted: (1) important characteristics to consider for vulnerable households, i.e. households that are likely to be substantially negatively affected by climate mitigation policies; (2) a ranking of both mitigation and compensation measures tailored to the buildings and mobility sectors. We were able to incorporate most of the stakeholders’ findings and recommendations into our analysis and the model simulations. The continuous dialogue with the SB ensured the refinement of the implementation of these measures. Finally, the second workshop was used to critically reflect on the results of the model simulations and to highlight blind spots and special cases of hardship which were outside of the modelling framework. The results of the simulated mitigation and compensation policy scenario were generally considered reasonable and fair by the participants. However, further research and surveys are needed to explore the acceptability of the policy packages to decision-makers and the general public.

Two major international frameworks provide landmarks for future development paths: the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement. Monitoring the progress towards achieving the individual goals must take into account a multitude of synergies and trade-offs. In this paper we use composite indices to analyze climate and energy policies in selected EU member countries. These results show that, in general, the improvements regarding energy efficiency, emissions and deployment of renewables have been moderate in the period under observation (2005–2015). This hints at the time needed for restructuring to take place, which underlines the importance of credible political commitments to climate targets, the implementation of ambitious instruments and the need for stability in the guiding frameworks to effectuate substantial changes. In addition, the analysis of the selected countries shows that they are characterized by very specific energy systems (complemented by specific social structures), and this determines the challenges that each country must overcome on the way to decarbonization and sustainable development. While the SDGs are to be implemented on a global scale, it is necessary to adapt them to the characteristics of a given country or region. Reliable and long-term quantitative data that is comparable across countries or regions and that takes into account the social dimension is required to be able to monitor the overall progress of SGD implementation.

Austria has set the goal to transform its electricity sector to 100% renewable energy sources by 2030. The transition to highly renewable power systems is not only a technical challenge but also has economic implications due to high investment needs. Furthermore, electricity price and demand are interlaced and influence each other, which requires both technical and economic analyses. In order to provide these comprehensive integrated analyses, we present a novel approach of linking the technical model of the continental European electricity system ATLANTIS with the macroeconomic model DYNK. This allows us, inter alia, to analyze the effects of increasing shares of renewables on wholesale electricity prices and demand, and to perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to CO2 prices. Our results show that increasing CO2 prices greatly affect coal-fired generation abroad, which in turn promotes the role of gas-fired generation, at least until 2030. For Austria, this results in increased national gas-fired generation and electricity exports. Therefore, gas-fired power plants still determine the Austrian market price for electricity in the merit order, which leads to higher electricity prices due to CO2 pricing. In turn, however, higher electricity prices only cause a marginal reduction in the electricity demand in Austria.

We analyse the (techno- and macro-)economic and distributive effects of a transformation to a renewable electricity system in Austria by 2030, as stipulated by the Austrian government. For the analysis, the macroeconomic model DYNK and ATLANTIS, a partial model of the electricity market, were expanded and linked. Four transformation scenarios conforming with the 100 percent renewable electricity target in Austria on a national balance are examined, integrated into a consistent scenario for the development of the European electricity system. Additionally, sensitivity analyses with respect to the gas price are performed. Although all scenarios achieve 100 percent RES-E on a national balance, the analysis shows that electricity from gas-fired power plants will still be needed in 2030 to balance variable renewable generation, to avoid grid congestion, and for heat generation from combined heat and power plants in winter months. Another main conclusion from the simulations is that the transition towards a renewable electricity sector is almost neutral from a socio-economic perspective. It does neither reveal harmful impacts nor lead to high multiplier effects from additional investment. With high natural gas prices in the sensitivity scenarios a decrease in GDP and household income, which might motivate redistributive policies, can be observed.

Both the UN SDGs and the Paris Agreement imply ambitious long-term targets that can only be met through a fundamental restructuring of economic and social systems. We propose a set of energy and climate policy indicators that allow informed policymaking and go beyond the UN indicator set. The indicators cover the whole energy system as well as the three dimensions of sustainable development. Our approach combines an energy service centered perspective with research on energy and climate indicators, and it embeds the indicator framework in the broader socio-ecologic context. We compile a set of 109 high-level energy indicators for four key sectors of energy demand (households, transport, industry and manufacturing) that can be further disaggregated to 334 indicators. For electricity and heat supply we assemble a set of 21 indicators that can be disaggregated to 54 indicators, differentiating by energy source and plant type. Interactions, i.e., synergies and conflicts, between the different target dimensions and the corresponding indicators need to be carefully considered. The main aim of the comprehensive indicator set is to help policymakers define measurable goals and strategies in the field of energy and climate policy, as well as to provide a tool for policy monitoring, evaluation and revision. The challenge in using indicator systems for policy analysis is that they have to consider a multitude of aspects in order to reflect the complexity of the issues analyzed and at the same time have to deliver concise information on various trends.