• Energy Research

We present possible steps for Germany's capital region for a pathway towards high-level renewable energy contributions. To this end, we give an overview of the current energy policy and status of electricity generation and demand of two federal states: the capital city Berlin and the surrounding state of Brandenburg. In a second step we present alternative, feasible scenarios with focus on the years 2020 and 2030. All scenarios were numerically evaluated in hourly time steps using a cost optimisation approach. The required installed capacities in an 80% renewables scenario in the year 2020 consist of 8.8 GW wind energy, 4.8 GW photovoltaics, 0.4 GWel bioenergy, 0.6 GWel methanation and a gas storage capacity of 180 GWhth. In order to meet a renewable electricity share of 100% in 2030, approximately 9.5 GW wind energy, 10.2 GW photovoltaics and 0.4 GWel bioenergy will be needed, complemented by a methanation capacity of about 1.5 GWel and gas storage of about 530 GWhth. In 2030, an additional 11 GWhel of battery storage capacity will be required. Approximately 3 GW of thermal gas power plants will be necessary to cover the residual load in both scenarios. Furthermore, we studied the transmission capacities of extra-high voltage transmission lines in a second simulation and found them to be sufficient for the energy distribution within the investigated region.

We present possible steps for Germany's capital region for a pathway towards high-level renewable energy contributions. To this end, we give an overview of the current energy policy and status of electricity generation and demand of two federal states: the capital city Berlin and the surrounding state of Brandenburg. In a second step we present alternative, feasible scenarios with focus on the years 2020 and 2030. All scenarios were numerically evaluated in hourly time steps using a cost optimisation approach. The required installed capacities in an 80% renewables scenario in the year 2020 consist of 8.8 GW wind energy, 4.8 GW photovoltaics, 0.4 GWel bioenergy, 0.6 GWel methanation and a gas storage capacity of 180 GWhth. In order to meet a renewable electricity share of 100% in 2030, approximately 9.5 GW wind energy, 10.2 GW photovoltaics and 0.4 GWel bioenergy will be needed, complemented by a methanation capacity of about 1.5 GWel and gas storage of about 530 GWhth. In 2030, an additional 11 GWhel of battery storage capacity will be required. Approximately 3 GW of thermal gas power plants will be necessary to cover the residual load in both scenarios. Furthermore, we studied the transmission capacities of extra-high voltage transmission lines in a second simulation and found them to be sufficient for the energy distribution within the investigated region.

Abstract Transition of Iran's power system from 2015 to 2050 through three scenarios was modelled. Two scenarios present a transition pathway towards a fully renewable run power system with different involved sectors (power only, power sector coupled with desalination and non-energetic gas sectors). The third scenario is based on the country's current policies. The energy model performs an hourly resolution to guarantee meeting energy demand for every hour of the whole year. It is found that renewable energy resources in Iran can satisfy 625 TWh of power sector demand in 2050. Further, it is technically and economically feasible that electricity demand for supplying 101 million m3 desalinated water and 249 TWhLHV synthetic natural gas for non-energetic industrial gas demand can be supplied via renewable resources. A 100% renewable power system with 54 €/MWhel levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is more cost-effective than the current power system in Iran with 88.3 €/MWhel LCOE in 2015. LCOE of the system can decrease further and reach to 41.3 €/MWhel in 2050 via sector coupling. On the other hand, the current policies of the country lead to an inefficient power system with a LCOE of 128 €/MWhel and 188 Mt/a emitted CO2 in 2050.

Abstract Transition of Iran's power system from 2015 to 2050 through three scenarios was modelled. Two scenarios present a transition pathway towards a fully renewable run power system with different involved sectors (power only, power sector coupled with desalination and non-energetic gas sectors). The third scenario is based on the country's current policies. The energy model performs an hourly resolution to guarantee meeting energy demand for every hour of the whole year. It is found that renewable energy resources in Iran can satisfy 625 TWh of power sector demand in 2050. Further, it is technically and economically feasible that electricity demand for supplying 101 million m3 desalinated water and 249 TWhLHV synthetic natural gas for non-energetic industrial gas demand can be supplied via renewable resources. A 100% renewable power system with 54 €/MWhel levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is more cost-effective than the current power system in Iran with 88.3 €/MWhel LCOE in 2015. LCOE of the system can decrease further and reach to 41.3 €/MWhel in 2050 via sector coupling. On the other hand, the current policies of the country lead to an inefficient power system with a LCOE of 128 €/MWhel and 188 Mt/a emitted CO2 in 2050.

AbstractThere are a fast growing number of global energy scenarios based on high shares of renewable energy (RE). However, many of them lack comprehensive analyses of energy storage systems. A review of global scenarios reveals that energy storage systems are assessed mainly qualitatively; quantitative assessments of global energy storage demand are scarce. The possible future roles of energy storage systems are plentiful: they can be used in short-term control (e.g. in power grid frequency control), as a medium-term balance mechanism (to shift daily production to meet demand), as long-term storage (seasonal shift), or to substitute grid extensions. Typically, only power storage is considered, if energy storage is assessed at all. Scenario-makers do not always assess the dynamics and synergies of energy storage systems in the power, heat and mobility sectors.To date, publications of the dynamics between continent-wide renewable energy production, transmission grids and energy storage capacities are not numerous. The existing body of research indicates that transmission lines connecting individual countries are regarded as a key component in enabling RE-based, low-cost energy systems. However, various issues could restrain the implementation of proposed grid connections. These barriers could be overcome by partially substituting energy grid reinforcements with energy storage solutions. Furthermore, less storage related curtailment of renewable energy could lead to improved energy system efficiency and cost. Therefore, energy scenarios that capture quantitatively different configurations of international energy exchange and its influence on regional storage systems are needed. High spatial and temporal resolution energy system models are needed to assess scenarios for high share of renewable energy supply and demand for energy storage.

AbstractThere are a fast growing number of global energy scenarios based on high shares of renewable energy (RE). However, many of them lack comprehensive analyses of energy storage systems. A review of global scenarios reveals that energy storage systems are assessed mainly qualitatively; quantitative assessments of global energy storage demand are scarce. The possible future roles of energy storage systems are plentiful: they can be used in short-term control (e.g. in power grid frequency control), as a medium-term balance mechanism (to shift daily production to meet demand), as long-term storage (seasonal shift), or to substitute grid extensions. Typically, only power storage is considered, if energy storage is assessed at all. Scenario-makers do not always assess the dynamics and synergies of energy storage systems in the power, heat and mobility sectors.To date, publications of the dynamics between continent-wide renewable energy production, transmission grids and energy storage capacities are not numerous. The existing body of research indicates that transmission lines connecting individual countries are regarded as a key component in enabling RE-based, low-cost energy systems. However, various issues could restrain the implementation of proposed grid connections. These barriers could be overcome by partially substituting energy grid reinforcements with energy storage solutions. Furthermore, less storage related curtailment of renewable energy could lead to improved energy system efficiency and cost. Therefore, energy scenarios that capture quantitatively different configurations of international energy exchange and its influence on regional storage systems are needed. High spatial and temporal resolution energy system models are needed to assess scenarios for high share of renewable energy supply and demand for energy storage.

Abstract A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.

Abstract A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.