• Energy Research

Empirical evidence increasingly indicates that to achieve sufficiently rapid decarbonisation, high-income economies may need to adopt degrowth policies, scaling down less-necessary forms of production and demand, in addition to rapid deployment of renewables. Calls have been made for degrowth climate mitigation scenarios. However, so far these have not been modelled within the established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for future scenario analysis of the energy-economy-emission nexus, partly because the architecture of these IAMs has growth ‘baked in’. In this work, we modify one of the common IAMs – MESSAGEix – to make it compatible with degrowth scenarios. We simulate scenarios featuring low and negative growth in a high-income economy (Australia). We achieve this by detaching MESSAGEix from its monotonically growing utility function, and by formulating an alternative utility function based on non-monotonic preferences. The outcomes from such modified scenarios reflect some characteristics of degrowth futures, including reduced aggregate production and declining energy and emissions. However, further work is needed to explore other key degrowth features such as sectoral differentiation, redistribution, and provisioning system transformation.

This analysis proposes a novel method for quantifying national responsibility for damages related to climate change by looking at national contributions to cumulative CO2 emissions in excess of the planetary boundary of 350 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration. This approach is rooted in the principle of equal per capita access to atmospheric commons.For this analysis, national fair shares of a safe global carbon budget consistent with the planetary boundary of 350 ppm were derived. These fair shares were then subtracted from countries' actual historical emissions (territorial emissions from 1850 to 1969, and consumption-based emissions from 1970 to 2015) to determine the extent to which each country has overshot or undershot its fair share. Through this approach, each country's share of responsibility for global emissions in excess of the planetary boundary was calculated.As of 2015, the USA was responsible for 40% of excess global CO2 emissions. The European Union (EU-28) was responsible for 29%. The G8 nations (the USA, EU-28, Russia, Japan, and Canada) were together responsible for 85%. Countries classified by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change as Annex I nations (ie, most industrialised countries) were responsible for 90% of excess emissions. The Global North was responsible for 92%. By contrast, most countries in the Global South were within their boundary fair shares, including India and China (although China will overshoot soon).These figures indicate that high-income countries have a greater degree of responsibility for climate damages than previous methods have implied. These results offer a just framework for attributing national responsibility for excess emissions, and a guide for determining national liability for damages related to climate change, consistent with the principles of planetary boundaries and equal access to atmospheric commons.None.

IPCC reports, to date, have not featured ambitious mitigation scenarios with degrowth in high-income regions. Here, using MESSAGEix-Australia, we create 51 emissions scenarios for Australia with near-term GDP growth going from +3%/year to rapid reductions (−5%/year) to explore how a traditional integrated assessment model (IAM) represents degrowth from an economic starting point, not just energy demand reduction. We find that stagnating GDP per capita reduces the mid-century need for upscaling solar and wind energy by about 40% compared to the SSP2 growth baseline, and limits future material needs for renewables. Still, solar and wind energy in 2030 is more than quadruple that of 2020. Faster reductions in energy demand may entail higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns, depending on the policies involved. Strong reductions in inequality reduce the risk of lowered access to decent living services. We discuss research needs and possible IAM extensions to improve post-growth and degrowth scenario modelling.

Established climate mitigation scenarios assume continued economic growth in all countries, and reconcile this with the Paris targets by betting on speculative technological change. Post-growth approaches may make it easier to achieve rapid mitigation while improving social outcomes, and should be explored by climate modellers.

AbstractResearchers have argued that wealthy nations rely on a large net appropriation of labour and resources from the rest of the world through unequal exchange in international trade and global commodity chains. Here we assess this empirically by measuring flows of embodied labour in the world economy from 1995–2021, accounting for skill levels, sectors and wages. We find that, in 2021, the economies of the global North net-appropriated 826 billion hours of embodied labour from the global South, across all skill levels and sectors. The wage value of this net-appropriated labour was equivalent to €16.9 trillion in Northern prices, accounting for skill level. This appropriation roughly doubles the labour that is available for Northern consumption but drains the South of productive capacity that could be used instead for local human needs and development. Unequal exchange is understood to be driven in part by systematic wage inequalities. We find Southern wages are 87–95% lower than Northern wages for work of equal skill. While Southern workers contribute 90% of the labour that powers the world economy, they receive only 21% of global income.

Le changement climatique a un large éventail d'impacts sur la santé et la lutte contre le changement climatique pourrait être la plus grande opportunité d'améliorer la santé mondiale au cours de ce siècle. Pourtant, les conversations sur le changement climatique et la santé sont souvent incomplètes, accordant peu d'attention à la discrimination structurelle et au besoin de justice raciale. Le racisme tue, et le changement climatique tue. Ensemble, le racisme et le changement climatique interagissent et ont des effets disproportionnés sur la vie des personnes minoritaires à la fois au sein des pays et entre le Nord et le Sud. Ce document a trois objectifs principaux. Tout d'abord, examiner la littérature sur les impacts inégaux du changement climatique sur la santé en raison du racisme, de la xénophobie et de la discrimination à travers un examen de la portée. Nous avons constaté que les groupes racialement minoritaires, les migrants et les communautés autochtones sont confrontés à un fardeau disproportionné de maladie et de mortalité en raison du changement climatique dans différents contextes. Deuxièmement, cet article vise à mettre en évidence les inégalités dans la responsabilité du changement climatique et ses effets. Une visualisation géographique de la responsabilité du changement climatique et du risque projeté de mortalité et de maladie attribuable au changement climatique pour 100 000 personnes en 2050 a été réalisée. Ces cartes visualisent le fardeau disproportionné de la maladie et de la mortalité dues au changement climatique auquel sont confrontés les pays du Sud. Notre troisième objectif est de mettre en évidence les voies par lesquelles le changement climatique, la discrimination et la santé interagissent dans les zones les plus touchées. Des études de cas, des témoignages et des analyses de politiques tirées de perspectives multidisciplinaires sont présentés tout au long de l'article pour élucider ces voies. La communauté de la santé doit de toute urgence examiner et réparer la discrimination structurelle qui entraîne les impacts inégaux du changement climatique pour parvenir à une action rapide et équitable. El cambio climático tiene una amplia gama de impactos en la salud y abordar el cambio climático podría ser la mejor oportunidad para mejorar la salud mundial este siglo. Sin embargo, las conversaciones sobre el cambio climático y la salud a menudo son incompletas, prestando poca atención a la discriminación estructural y la necesidad de justicia racial. El racismo mata y el cambio climático mata. Juntos, el racismo y el cambio climático interactúan y tienen efectos desproporcionados en las vidas de las personas minorizadas tanto dentro de los países como entre el Norte Global y el Sur Global. Este documento tiene tres objetivos principales. En primer lugar, examinar la literatura sobre los impactos desiguales del cambio climático en la salud debido al racismo, la xenofobia y la discriminación a través de una revisión de alcance. Descubrimos que los grupos minorizados racialmente, los migrantes y las comunidades indígenas enfrentan una carga desproporcionada de enfermedades y mortalidad debido al cambio climático en diferentes contextos. En segundo lugar, este documento tiene como objetivo resaltar las desigualdades en la responsabilidad por el cambio climático y los efectos del mismo. Se realizó una visualización geográfica de la responsabilidad por el cambio climático y la mortalidad proyectada y el riesgo de enfermedad atribuible al cambio climático por cada 100 000 personas en 2050. Estos mapas visualizan la carga desproporcionada de enfermedades y mortalidad debido al cambio climático que enfrenta el Sur Global. Nuestro tercer objetivo es destacar las vías a través de las cuales el cambio climático, la discriminación y la salud interactúan en las zonas más afectadas. A lo largo del documento se presentan estudios de casos, testimonios y análisis de políticas extraídos de perspectivas multidisciplinarias para dilucidar estas vías. La comunidad sanitaria debe examinar y reparar urgentemente la discriminación estructural que impulsa los impactos desiguales del cambio climático para lograr una acción rápida y equitativa. Climate change has a broad range of health impacts and tackling climate change could be the greatest opportunity for improving global health this century. Yet conversations on climate change and health are often incomplete, giving little attention to structural discrimination and the need for racial justice. Racism kills, and climate change kills. Together, racism and climate change interact and have disproportionate effects on the lives of minoritised people both within countries and between the Global North and the Global South. This paper has three main aims. First, to survey the literature on the unequal health impacts of climate change due to racism, xenophobia, and discrimination through a scoping review. We found that racially minoritised groups, migrants, and Indigenous communities face a disproportionate burden of illness and mortality due to climate change in different contexts. Second, this paper aims to highlight inequalities in responsibility for climate change and the effects thereof. A geographical visualisation of responsibility for climate change and projected mortality and disease risk attributable to climate change per 100 000 people in 2050 was conducted. These maps visualise the disproportionate burden of illness and mortality due to climate change faced by the Global South. Our third aim is to highlight the pathways through which climate change, discrimination, and health interact in most affected areas. Case studies, testimony, and policy analysis drawn from multidisciplinary perspectives are presented throughout the paper to elucidate these pathways. The health community must urgently examine and repair the structural discrimination that drives the unequal impacts of climate change to achieve rapid and equitable action. لتغير المناخ مجموعة واسعة من الآثار الصحية ويمكن أن تكون معالجة تغير المناخ أكبر فرصة لتحسين الصحة العالمية هذا القرن. ومع ذلك، غالبًا ما تكون المحادثات حول تغير المناخ والصحة غير مكتملة، ولا تولي اهتمامًا كبيرًا للتمييز الهيكلي والحاجة إلى العدالة العرقية. العنصرية تقتل، وتغير المناخ يقتل. تتفاعل العنصرية وتغير المناخ معًا ولهما آثار غير متناسبة على حياة الأشخاص الأقلية داخل البلدان وبين الشمال العالمي والجنوب العالمي. لهذه الورقة ثلاثة أهداف رئيسية. أولاً، دراسة الأدبيات المتعلقة بالآثار الصحية غير المتكافئة لتغير المناخ بسبب العنصرية وكراهية الأجانب والتمييز من خلال مراجعة تحديد النطاق. وجدنا أن المجموعات الأقلية العرقية والمهاجرين ومجتمعات السكان الأصليين يواجهون عبئًا غير متناسب من المرض والوفيات بسبب تغير المناخ في سياقات مختلفة. ثانيًا، تهدف هذه الورقة إلى تسليط الضوء على أوجه عدم المساواة في المسؤولية عن تغير المناخ وآثاره. تم إجراء تصور جغرافي للمسؤولية عن تغير المناخ والوفيات المتوقعة ومخاطر الأمراض التي تعزى إلى تغير المناخ لكل 100000 شخص في عام 2050. تصور هذه الخرائط العبء غير المتناسب للمرض والوفيات بسبب تغير المناخ الذي يواجهه الجنوب العالمي. هدفنا الثالث هو تسليط الضوء على المسارات التي يتفاعل من خلالها تغير المناخ والتمييز والصحة في معظم المناطق المتضررة. يتم تقديم دراسات الحالة والشهادات وتحليل السياسات المستمدة من وجهات نظر متعددة التخصصات في جميع أنحاء الورقة لتوضيح هذه المسارات. يجب على المجتمع الصحي أن يفحص ويصلح على وجه السرعة التمييز الهيكلي الذي يدفع الآثار غير المتكافئة لتغير المناخ لتحقيق عمل سريع ومنصف.