• Energy Research

AbstractPrevious research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced (14.5%) once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, 50% of the 37 shade tree species modelled will experience a decrease in geographic rate extent by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of shade tree species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions.

Experimental citizen science offers new ways to organize on-farm testing of crop varieties and other agronomic options. Its implementation at scale requires software that streamlines the process of experimental design, data collection and analysis, so that different organizations can support trials. This article considers ClimMob software developed to facilitate implementing experimental citizen science in agriculture. We describe the software design process, including our initial design choices, the architecture and functionality of ClimMob, and the methodology used for incorporating user feedback. Initial design choices were guided by the need to shape a workflow that is feasible for farmers and relevant for farmers, breeders and other decision-makers. Workflow and software concepts were developed concurrently. The resulting approach supported by ClimMob is triadic comparisons of technology options (tricot), which allows farmers to make simple comparisons between crop varieties or other agricultural technologies tested on farms. The software was built using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE), to allow for a flexible, modular design of software that is easy to maintain. Source is open-source and built on existing components that generally have a broad user community, to ensure their continuity in the future. Key components include Open Data Kit, ODK Tools, PyUtilib Component Architecture. The design of experiments and data analysis is done through R packages, which are all available on CRAN. Constant user feedback and short communication lines between the development teams and users was crucial in the development process. Development will continue to further improve user experience, expand data collection methods and media channels, ensure integration with other systems, and to further improve the support for data-driven decision-making.

In smallholder farming systems, traditional farmer varieties of neglected and underutilized species (NUS) support the livelihoods of millions of growers and consumers. NUS combine cultural and agronomic value with local adaptation, and transdisciplinary methods are needed to fully evaluate their breeding potential. Here, we assembled and characterized the genetic diversity of a representative collection of 366 Ethiopian teff (Eragrostis tef) farmer varieties and breeding materials, describing their phylogenetic relations and local adaptation on the Ethiopian landscape. We phenotyped the collection for its agronomic performance, involving local teff farmers in a participatory variety evaluation. Our analyses revealed environmental patterns of teff genetic diversity and allowed us to identify 10 genetic clusters associated with climate variation and with uneven spatial distribution. A genome-wide association study was used to identify loci and candidate genes related to phenology, yield, local adaptation, and farmers’ appreciation. The estimated teff genomic offset under climate change scenarios highlighted an area around lake Tana where teff cropping may be most vulnerable to climate change. Our results show that transdisciplinary approaches may efficiently propel untapped NUS farmer varieties into modern breeding to foster more resilient and sustainable cropping systems.

AbstractCrop breeding must embrace the broad diversity of smallholder agricultural systems to ensure food security to the hundreds of millions of people living in challenging production environments. This need can be addressed by combining genomics, farmers’ knowledge, and environmental analysis into a data-driven decentralized approach (3D-breeding). We tested this idea as a proof-of-concept by comparing a durum wheat (Triticum durumDesf.) decentralized trial distributed as incomplete blocks in 1,165 farmer-managed fields across the Ethiopian highlands with a benchmark representing genomic prediction applied to conventional breeding. We found that 3D-breeding could double the prediction accuracy of the benchmark. 3D-breeding could identify genotypes with enhanced local adaptation providing superior productive performance across seasons. We propose this decentralized approach to leverage the diversity in farmer fields and complement conventional plant breeding to enhance local adaptation in challenging crop production environments.

AbstractClimate change threatens coffee production and the livelihoods of thousands of families in Mesoamerica that depend on it. Replacing coffee with cocoa and integrating trees in combined agroforestry systems to ameliorate abiotic stress are among the proposed alternatives to overcome this challenge. These two alternatives do not consider the vulnerability of cocoa and tree species commonly used in agroforestry plantations to future climate conditions. We assessed the suitability of these alternatives by identifying the potential changes in the distribution of coffee, cocoa and the 100 most common agroforestry trees found in Mesoamerica. Here we show that cocoa could potentially become an alternative in most of coffee vulnerable areas. Agroforestry with currently preferred tree species is highly vulnerable to future climate change. Transforming agroforestry systems by changing tree species composition may be the best approach to adapt most of the coffee and cocoa production areas. Our results stress the urgency for land use planning considering climate change effects and to assess new combinations of agroforestry species in coffee and cocoa plantations in Mesoamerica.

AbstractLocation‐specific information is required to support decision making in crop variety management, especially under increasingly challenging climate conditions. Data synthesis can aggregate data from individual trials to produce information that supports decision making in plant breeding programs, extension services, and of farmers. Data from on‐farm trials using the novel approach of triadic comparison of technologies (tricot) are increasingly available, from which more insights could be gained using a data synthesis approach. The objective of our study was to present the applicability of a rank‐based data synthesis approach to several datasets from tricot trials to generate location‐specific information supporting decision making in crop variety management. Our study focuses on tricot data from 14 trials of common bean (Phaseolus vulgarisL.) performed between 2015 and 2018 across four countries in Central America (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua). The combined data of 17 common bean genotypes were rank aggregated and analyzed with the Plackett–Luce model. Model‐based recursive partitioning was used to assess the influence of spatially explicit environmental covariates on the performance of common bean genotypes. Location‐specific performance was predicted for the three main growing seasons in Central America. We demonstrate how the rank‐based data synthesis methodology allows integrating tricot trial data from heterogenous sources to provide location‐specific information to support decision making in crop variety management. Maps of genotype performance can support decision making in crop variety evaluation such as variety recommendations to farmers and variety release processes.