• Energy Research

AbstractPeruvian glaciers are important contributors to dry season runoff for agriculture and hydropower, but they are at risk of disappearing due to climate change. We applied a physically based, energy balance melt model at five on‐glacier sites within the Peruvian Cordilleras Blanca and Vilcanota. Net shortwave radiation dominates the energy balance, and despite this flux being higher in the dry season, melt rates are lower due to losses from net longwave radiation and the latent heat flux. The sensible heat flux is a relatively small contributor to melt energy. At three of the sites the wet season snowpack was discontinuous, forming and melting within a daily to weekly timescale, and resulting in highly variable melt rates closely related to precipitation dynamics. Cold air temperatures due to a strong La Niña year at Shallap Glacier (Cordillera Blanca) resulted in a continuous wet season snowpack, significantly reducing wet season ablation. Sublimation was most important at the highest site in the accumulation zone of the Quelccaya Ice Cap (Cordillera Vilcanota), accounting for 81% of ablation, compared to 2%–4% for the other sites. Air temperature and precipitation inputs were perturbed to investigate the climate sensitivity of the five glaciers. At the lower sites warmer air temperatures resulted in a switch from snowfall to rain, so that ablation was increased via the decrease in albedo and increase in net shortwave radiation. At the top of Quelccaya Ice Cap warming caused melting to replace sublimation so that ablation increased nonlinearly with air temperature.

The presence of supraglacial debris on glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram affects the ablation rate of these glaciers and their response to climatic change. To understand how supraglacial debris distribution and associated surface features vary spatially and temporally, geomorphological mapping was undertaken on Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram, for three time-separated images between 2001–2012. Debris is supplied to the glacier system through frequent but small landslides at the glacier margin that form lateral and medial moraines and less frequent but higher volume rockfall events which are more lobate and often discontinuous in form. Debris on the glacier surface is identified as a series of distinct lithological units which merge downglacier of the convergence area between the Godwin-Austen and Baltoro South tributary glaciers. Debris distribution varies as a result of complex interaction between tributary glaciers and the main glacier tongue, complicated further by surge events on some tributary glaciers. Glacier flow dynamics mainly controls the evolution of a supraglacial debris layer. Identifying such spatial variability in debris rock type and temporal variability in debris distribution has implications for glacier ablation rate, affecting glacier surface energy balance. Accordingly, spatial and temporal variation in supraglacial debris should be considered when determining mass balance for these glaciers through time.

AbstractGlaciers in the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI) have been shrinking in recent decades, but due to a lack of field observations, understanding of the drivers of ablation is limited. We present a distributed surface energy balance model, forced with meteorological observations from a west–east transect located in the north of the SPI. Between October 2015 and June 2016, humid and warm on-glacier conditions prevailed on the western side compared to dry and cold conditions on the eastern side. Controls of ablation differ along the transect, although at glacier-wide scale sensible heat (mean of 72 W m−2 to the west and 51 W m−2 to the east) and net shortwave radiation (mean of 54 W m−2 to the west and 52 W m−2 to the east) provided the main energy sources. Net longwave radiation was an energy sink, while latent heat was the most spatially variable flux, being an energy sink in the east (−4 W m−2) and a source in the west (20 W m−2). Ablation was high, but at comparable elevations, it was greater to the west. These results provide new insights into the spatial variability of energy-balance fluxes and their control over the ablation of Patagonian glaciers.

AbstractRunoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.

AbstractThis paper presents new methods of estimating the aerodynamic roughness (z0) of glacier ice directly from three‐dimensional point clouds and digital elevation models (DEMs), examines temporal variability of z0, and presents the first fully distributed map of z0 estimates across the ablation zone of an Arctic glacier. The aerodynamic roughness of glacier ice surfaces is an important component of energy balance models and meltwater runoff estimates through its influence on turbulent fluxes of latent and sensible heat. In a warming climate these fluxes are predicted to become more significant in contributing to overall melt volumes. Ice z0 is commonly estimated from measurements of ice surface microtopography, typically from topographic profiles taken perpendicular to the prevailing wind direction. Recent advances in surveying permit rapid acquisition of high‐resolution topographic data allowing revision of assumptions underlying conventional z0 measurement. Using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry with Multi‐View Stereo (MVS) to survey ice surfaces with millimeter‐scale accuracy, z0 variation over 3 orders of magnitude was observed. Different surface types demonstrated different temporal trajectories in z0 through 3 days of intense melt. A glacier‐scale 2 m resolution DEM was obtained through terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), and subgrid roughness was significantly related to plot‐scale z0. Thus, we show for the first time that glacier‐scale TLS or SfM‐MVS surveys can characterize z0 variability over a glacier surface potentially leading to distributed representations of z0 in surface energy balance models.