• Energy Research

Significance The Arctic is warming rapidly, causing permafrost soils to thaw. Vast stocks of nitrogen (>67 billion tons) in the permafrost, accumulated thousands of years ago, could now become available for decomposition, leading to the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere. N 2 O is a strong greenhouse gas, almost 300 times more powerful than CO 2 for warming the climate. Although carbon dynamics in the Arctic are well studied, the fact that Arctic soils store enormous amounts of nitrogen has received little attention so far. We report that the Arctic may become a substantial source of N 2 O when the permafrost thaws, and that N 2 O emissions could occur from surfaces covering almost one-fourth of the entire Arctic.

AbstractUnderstanding large‐scale drivers of biodiversity in palustrine wetlands is challenging due to the combined effects of macroclimate and local edaphic conditions. In boreal and temperate fen ecosystems, the influence of macroclimate on biodiversity is modulated by hydrological settings across habitats, making it difficult to assess their vulnerability to climate change. Here, we investigate the influence of macroclimate and edaphic factors on three Essential Biodiversity Variables across eight ecologically defined habitats that align with ecosystem classifications and red lists. We used 27,555 vegetation plot samples from European fens to assess the influence of macroclimate and groundwater pH predictors on the geographic distribution of each habitat type. Additionally, we modeled the relative influence of macroclimate, water pH, and water table depth on community species richness and composition, focusing on 309 plant specialists. Our models reveal strong effects of mean annual temperature, diurnal thermal range, and summer temperature on biodiversity variables, with contrasting differences among habitats. While macroclimatic factors primarily shape geographic distributions and species richness, edaphic factors emerge as the primary drivers of composition for vascular plants and bryophytes. Annual precipitation exhibits non‐linear effects on fen biodiversity, with varying impact across habitats with different hydrological characteristics, suggesting a minimum requirement of 600 mm of annual precipitation for the occurrence of fen ecosystems. Our results anticipate potential impacts of climate warming on European fens, with predictable changes among habitat types and geographic regions. Moreover, we provide evidence that the drivers of biodiversity in boreal and temperate fens are closely tied to the ecological characteristics of each habitat type and the dispersal abilities of bryophytes and vascular plants. Given that the influence of macroclimate and edaphic factors on fen ecosystems is habitat specific, climate change research and conservation actions should consider ecological differentiation within functional IUCN ecosystems at continental and regional scales.

AbstractRising temperatures may endanger fragile ecosystems because their character and key species show different habitat affinities under different climates. This assumption has only been tested in limited geographical scales. In fens, one of the most endangered ecosystems in Europe, broader pH niches have been reported from cold areas and are expected for colder past periods. We used the largest European‐scale vegetation database from fens to test the hypothesis that pH interacts with macroclimate temperature in forming realized niches of fen moss and vascular plant species. We calibrated the data set (29,885 plots after heterogeneity‐constrained resampling) with temperature, using two macroclimate variables, and with the adjusted pH, a variable combining pH and calcium richness. We modelled temperature, pH and water level niches for one hundred species best characterizing European fens using generalized additive models and tested the interaction between pH and temperature. Fifty‐five fen species showed a statistically significant interaction between pH and temperature (adj p ˂ .01). Forty‐six of them (84%) showed a positive interaction manifested by a shift or restriction of their niche to higher pH in warmer locations. Nine vascular plants and no moss showed the opposite interaction. Mosses showed significantly greater interaction. We conclude that climate significantly modulates edaphic niches of fen plants, especially bryophytes. This result explains previously reported regional changes in realized pH niches, a current habitat‐dependent decline of endangered taxa, and distribution changes in the past. A warmer climate makes growing seasons longer and warmer, increases productivity, and may lower the water level. These effects prolong the duration and intensity of interspecific competition, support highly competitive Sphagnum mosses, and, as such, force niches of specialized fen species towards narrower high‐pH ranges. Recent anthropogenic landscape changes pose a severe threat to many fen species and call for mitigation measures to lower competition pressure in their refugia.

AbstractAs the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.