• Energy Research

The persistence of species may depend upon their capacity to keep pace with climate change. However, dispersal has been ignored in the vast majority of studies that aimed at estimating and predicting range shifts as a response to climate change. Long distance dispersal (LDD) in particular might promote rapid range shifts and allow species to track suitable habitat. Many aquatic plant species are dispersed by birds and have the potential to be dispersed over hundreds of kilometers during the bird migration seasons. I argue that such dispersal potential might be critical to allow species to track climate change happening at unprecedented high rates. As a case study, I used dispersal data from three aquatic plant species dispersed by migratory birds to model range shifts in response to climate change projections. By comparing four dispersal scenarios - (1) no dispersal, (2) unlimited dispersal, (3) LDD < 100 km, and (4) LDD mediated by bird migratory movements -, it was shown that, for bird-mediated dispersal, the rate of colonization is sufficient to counterbalance the rate of habitat loss. The estimated rates of colonization (3.2-31.5 km⋅year-1) are higher than, for example, the rate of global warming (previously estimated at 0.42 km⋅year-1). Although further studies are needed, the results suggest that these aquatic plant species can adjust their ranges under a severe climate change scenario. Therefore, investigating the dispersal capacity of species, namely their LDD potential, may contribute to estimate the likelihood of species to keep pace with climate change.

Flying over the open sea is energetically costly for terrestrial birds. Despite this, over-water journeys of many birds, sometimes hundreds of kilometres long, are uncovered by bio-logging technology. To understand how these birds afford their flights over the open sea, we investigated the role of atmospheric conditions, specifically wind and uplift, in subsidizing over-water flight at a global scale. We first established that ΔT, the temperature difference between sea surface and air, is a meaningful proxy for uplift over water. Using this proxy, we showed that the spatio-temporal patterns of sea-crossing in terrestrial migratory birds are associated with favourable uplift conditions. We then analysed route selection over the open sea for five facultative soaring species, representative of all major migratory flyways. The birds maximized wind support when selecting their sea-crossing routes and selected greater uplift when suitable wind support was available. They also preferred routes with low long-term uncertainty in wind conditions. Our findings suggest that, in addition to wind, uplift may play a key role in the energy seascape for bird migration that in turn determines strategies and associated costs for birds crossing ecological barriers such as the open sea.

Migratory birds are often suggested to be important vectors for long-distance dispersal (LDD) of plant and animal propagules. The scale of such dispersal events (hundreds to thousands of kilometers) can influence landscape-level biological processes and species distributions. However, the few vector species studied and the lack of proper integration of their migratory movement in models of LDD has precluded the study of their potential as long-distance biotic dispersers. By means of a mechanistic model parameterized with empirical data, we first investigated the properties of seed dispersal curves generated by migratory birds and then analyzed the effect of bird size on model parameters and consequent seed dispersal patterns. Seed dispersal curves showed in most cases large and heavy tails, resulting in relatively frequent LDD (up to 3.5% of dispersal distances longer than 100 km). Bird size mediated trade-offs between bird movement and seed retention time that, in turn, determined seed dispersal patterns and the potential of each bird species as an LDD vector. Our modeling framework builds on a mechanistic understanding of seed dispersal by migratory birds and may thus be a useful tool to estimate the scale and frequency of bird-mediated, large-scale transport of native, invasive, and pathogenic organisms.