• Energy Research

Future climate change is likely to reduce the floristic diversity of grasslands. Yet the potential consequences of climate-induced plant species losses for the functioning of these ecosystems are poorly understood. We investigated how climate change might alter the functional composition of grasslands for Konza Prairie, a diverse tallgrass prairie in central North America. With species-specific climate envelopes, we show that a reduction in mean annual precipitation would preferentially remove species that are more abundant in the more productive lowland positions at Konza. As such, decreases in precipitation could reduce productivity not only by reducing water availability but by also removing species that inhabit the most productive areas and respond the most to climate variability. In support of this prediction, data on species abundance at Konza over 16 years show that species that are more abundant in lowlands than uplands are preferentially reduced in years with low precipitation. Climate change is likely to also preferentially remove species from particular functional groups and clades. For example, warming is forecast to preferentially remove perennials over annuals as well as Cyperaceae species. Despite these predictions, climate change is unlikely to unilaterally alter the functional composition of the tallgrass prairie flora, as many functional traits such as physiological drought tolerance and maximum photosynthetic rates showed little relationship with climate envelope parameters. In all, although climatic drying would indirectly alter grassland productivity through species loss patterns, the insurance afforded by biodiversity to ecosystem function is likely to be sustained in the face of climate change.

Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key land-surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of gs in predictions of global water and carbon cycle changes, a global-scale database and an associated globally applicable model of gs that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. Here, we present a database of globally distributed gs obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We find that stomatal behaviour differs among PFTs according to their marginal carbon cost of water use, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model1 and the leaf and wood economics spectrum2, 3. We also demonstrate a global relationship with climate. These findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of gs across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of ecosystem productivity, energy balance and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate. This research was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC MIA Discovery Project 1433500-2012-14). A.R. was financially supported in part by The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE-Arctic) project, which is supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the Department of Energy, Office of Science, and through the United States Department of Energy contract No. DE-AC02-98CH10886 to Brookhaven National Laboratory. M.O.d.B. acknowledges that the Brassica data were obtained within a research project financed by the Belgian Science Policy (OFFQ, contract number SD/AF/02) and coordinated by K. Vandermeiren at the Open-Top Chamber research facilities of CODA-CERVA (Tervuren, Belgium).

AbstractGrassland ecosystems globally are being negatively impacted by changes in climate, disturbance regimes, nutrient flux, and consumer guilds. Changes in the trophic ecology of consumers can substantially influence local resources, contributing to shifting diversity, community turnover, and other processes of ecosystem change. Small mammals are diverse and abundant within grasslands and yet the impact of changing ecosystems on small mammals and the role of these mammals as consumers are still both under‐studied. We assessed small mammal resource use within grassland and woodland vegetation types that have resulted from landscape‐scale experimental disturbance through fire treatments within the tallgrass prairie ecoregion of the North American Great Plains. We predicted that resource use would vary significantly among grassland vs. woodland communities, in turn reducing the role of small mammals in contributing to future maintenance of native prairies. We sampled five dominant species of rodents across three years and multiple habitats. Using stable isotope analysis, we investigated isotopic niche area and overlap to infer variation in diet, both within and among species. Resource use shifted in bivariate isotopic space seasonally but not across years when combining all species and habitats. Inferred spring diet (based on fur samples) was highly diverse and overlapping. Summer isotopic values (based on liver tissue) in woody habitat treatments were narrower and overlapped less than within grassland habitats. Consumers generally shifted from C4herbivory to C3herbivory, or greater omnivory, when analyzing grassland, shrubland, and woodland habitats respectively. Within the tallgrass prairie ecosystem, small mammal populations in herbaceous‐dominated habitats use a broader variety of resources than small mammals in proximate woody‐dominated habitats. As native grasslands experience woody encroachment, small mammal assemblages experience turnover of dominant species and associated changes in diet. Ecosystem changes such as cessation of frequent fire resulting in more woody habitats may include reduced roles by native small mammals as consumers/dispersers/propagators of native grassland plants.

Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and high-intensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing.

Atmospheric CO2 enrichment may stimulate plant growth directly through (1) enhanced photosynthesis or indirectly, through (2) reduced plant water consumption and hence slower soil moisture depletion, or the combination of both. Herein we describe gas exchange, plant biomass and species responses of five native or semi-native temperate and Mediterranean grasslands and three semi-arid systems to CO2 enrichment, with an emphasis on water relations. Increasing CO2 led to decreased leaf conductance for water vapor, improved plant water status, altered seasonal evapotranspiration dynamics, and in most cases, periodic increases in soil water content. The extent, timing and duration of these responses varied among ecosystems, species and years. Across the grasslands of the Kansas tallgrass prairie, Colorado shortgrass steppe and Swiss calcareous grassland, increases in aboveground biomass from CO2 enrichment were relatively greater in dry years. In contrast, CO2-induced aboveground biomass increases in the Texas C3/C4 grassland and the New Zealand pasture seemed little or only marginally influenced by yearly variation in soil water, while plant growth in the Mojave Desert was stimulated by CO2 in a relatively wet year. Mediterranean grasslands sometimes failed to respond to CO2-related increased late-season water, whereas semiarid Negev grassland assemblages profited. Vegetative and reproductive responses to CO2 were highly varied among species and ecosystems, and did not generally follow any predictable pattern in regard to functional groups. Results suggest that the indirect effects of CO2 on plant and soil water relations may contribute substantially to experimentally induced CO2-effects, and also reflect local humidity conditions. For landscape scale predictions, this analysis calls for a clear distinction between biomass responses due to direct CO2 effects on photosynthesis and those indirect CO2 effects via soil moisture as documented here.

Bastin et al .’s estimate (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) that tree planting for climate change mitigation could sequester 205 gigatonnes of carbon is approximately five times too large. Their analysis inflated soil organic carbon gains, failed to safeguard against warming from trees at high latitudes and elevations, and considered afforestation of savannas, grasslands, and shrublands to be restoration.