• Energy Research

Low-carbon energy technologies (renewable energy and energy efficiency) are considered essential to achieve climate change mitigation goals, so a rapid deployment is needed. However there is a significant financing gap and many policymakers are concerned that investment for the large-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies will not materialise quickly enough. State investment banks (SIBs) can play a key role in closing this finance gap and leverage additional private finance. Based on 52 interviews, this paper presents empirical evidence on the role of three SIBs in addressing the barriers to financing low-carbon energy projects; the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) in Australia, the Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KfW) in Germany and the Green Investment Bank (GIB) in the UK. We investigate the activities and financial instruments offered by SIBs and compare these to the need for such from low-carbon developers when sourcing finance. Findings show that aside from capital provision and de-risking, SIBs take a much broader role in catalysing private investments into low-carbon investments, including enabling financial sector learning, creating trust for projects and taking a first or early mover role to help projects gain a track record. Energy Policy, 115 ISSN:0301-4215

AbstractWith rapidly decreasing purchase prices of electric vehicles, charging costs are becoming ever more important for the diffusion of electric vehicles as required to decarbonize transport. However, the costs of charging electric vehicles in Europe are largely unknown. Here we develop a systematic classification of charging options, gather extensive market data on equipment cost, and employ a levelized cost approach to model charging costs in 30 European countries (European Union 27, Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland) and for 13 different charging options for private passenger transport. The findings demonstrate a large variance of charging costs across countries and charging options, suggesting different policy options to reduce charging costs. A specific analysis on the impacts and relevance of publicly accessible charging station utilization is performed. The results reveal charging costs at these stations to be competitive with fuel costs at typical utilization rates exhibited already today.

Learning rates are a central concept in energy system models and integrated assessment models, as they allow researchers to project the future costs of new technologies and to optimize energy system costs. Here we argue that exchange rate fluctuations are an important, but thus far overlooked, determinant of the learning-rate variance observed in the literature. We explore how empirically observed global learning rates depend on where technologies are installed and which currency is used to calculate the learning rate. Using global data of large-scale photovoltaic (≥5 MW) plants, we show that the currency choice can result in learning-rate differences of up to 16 percentage points. We then introduce an adjustment factor to correct for the effect of exchange rate and market focus fluctuations and discuss the implications of our findings for innovation scholars, energy modellers and decision makers. Learning rates are a measure of reduction in costs of energy from technologies such as solar photovoltaics. These are often estimated internationally with all monetary figures converted to a single currency, often US dollars. Lilliestam et al. show that such conversions can significantly affect the learning rate estimates.

Despite the prominence of exogenous factors in theories of policy change, the precise mechanisms that link such factors to policy change remain elusive: The effects of exogenous factors on the politics underlying policy change are not sufficiently conceptualized and empirically analyzed. To address this gap, we propose to distinguish between truly exogenous factors and policy outcomes to better understand policy change. Specifically, we combine the Advocacy Coalition Framework with policy feedback theory to conceptualize a complete feedback loop among policy, policy outcomes, and subsequent politics. Aiming at theory‐building, we use policy feedback mechanisms to explain why advocacy coalitions change over time. Empirically, we conduct a longitudinal single case study on policy‐induced technological change in the German energy subsystem, an extreme case of policy outcomes, from 1983 to 2013. First, using discourse network analysis, we identify four patterns of actor movements, explaining coalition decline and growth. Second, using process tracing, we detect four policy feedback mechanisms explaining these four actor movements. With this inductive mixed‐methods approach, we build a conceptual framework in which policy outcomes affect subsequent politics through feedback mechanisms. We develop propositions on how coalition change and feedback mechanisms explain four ideal‐typical trajectories of policy change.

Battery storage is generally considered an effective means for reducing the intermittency of electricity generated by solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, currently it remains unclear when and under which conditions battery storage can be profitably operated in residential PV systems without policy support. Based on a review of previous studies that have examined the economics of integrated PV-battery systems, in this paper we devise a simulation model that investigates the economic viability of battery storage for residential PV in Germany under eight different electricity price scenarios from 2013 to 2022. In contrast to previous forward-looking studies, we assume that no premium is paid for solar photovoltaic power and/or self-consumed electricity. Additionally, we run the model with a large number of different PV and storage capacities to determine the economically optimal configuration in terms of system size. We find that already in 2013 investments in storage solutions were economically viable for small PV systems. Given the assumptions of our model, the optimal size of both residential PV systems and battery storage rises significantly in the future. Higher electricity retail prices, lower electricity wholesale prices or limited access to the electricity wholesale market add to the profitability of storage. We conclude that additional policy incentives to foster investments in battery storage for residential PV in Germany will only be necessary in the short run. At the same time, the impending profitability of integrated PV-storage systems is likely to further spur the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation with major implications for the electricity sector.

Abstract In future electricity systems with a high share of intermittent renewable power generation, battery technologies have the potential to support power quality and security. The growing scientific literature on batteries reflects the high attention that currently rests on these technologies. This paper reviews the existing literature on lifecycle costs of batteries in stationary applications. The primary result of this review is that, despite the current high degree of variance in technological and economic battery data, a systematic assessment of the underlying uncertainty is lacking. The present paper addresses this disparity with an investigation of the impact of uncertainty in input parameters on lifecycle costs of four battery technologies across six electricity system applications. Based on input data collected from literature and via expert interviews, a probabilistic techno-economic model was built that calculates lifecycle costs and systematically addresses uncertainty in input parameters by applying a Monte Carlo simulation. The main conclusion of this paper is that the present uncertainty in cost and technical parameters of batteries exceeds by far the differences in lifecycle costs across technologies. For most electricity storage applications, the absolute differences in mean lifecycle costs across technologies are negligible compared to the uncertainty ranges of the mean lifecycle costs. Therefore, a competition still exists between the four analyzed battery technologies and so far a leading technology has yet to emerge in any of the investigated applications.

Effective mitigation of climate change requires investment flows to be redirected from high- to low-carbon technologies. However, especially in developing countries, low-carbon investments often suffer from high risks. More research is needed to address these risks and allow sound policy decisions to be made.

Nature Sustainability, 2 (9) ISSN:2398-9629