• Energy Research

Although the relationship between drought - a dimension of climate change - and migration has been explored in a number of settings, prior research has largely focused on out-migration and has not considered climate factors at the migrant destination. However, drought may impact not only out-migration, but also return migration, particularly in settings where temporary labor migration and agricultural reliance are common. Thus, considering drought conditions at origin and destinations is necessary to specify the effects of climate on migrant-sending populations. Using detailed data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, a household panel study in a migrant-sending area in Nepal, we analyze the effect of drought at the neighborhood level on individual-level out-migration and drought at the origin district on return migration among adults from 2011 to 2017, assessing these associations among males and females separately. In mixed-effect discrete-time regressions, we find that neighborhood drought is positively associated with out-migration and return migration, both internally and internationally among males. Among females, drought is positively associated with internal out-migration and return migration, but not international migrations. We did not find an association between drought at the origin and return migration independent of drought status at the destination. Taken together, these findings contribute to our understanding of the complexity of the impacts of precipitation anomalies on population movement over time.

Changing precipitation patterns resulting from climate change are likely to have deleterious effects on health. We examined historical relationships between precipitation and diarrhea, cough, and fever among children aged 0-24 months in Uganda, a drought-prone region. Using data from the Uganda National Panel Survey from 2009 to 2012 (2,324 observations), we specified logistic regression models evaluating the relationships between deviations from annual and 30-day precipitation and caregiver-reported diarrhea, cough, and fever, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and including enumeration of area-fixed effects. Nonlinearities were assessed using restricted cubic splines. We observed nonlinear (J-shaped) relationships between deviations from annual precipitation and the three child illness outcomes. These J-shaped relationships represented steep reductions in illness with increasing precipitation at lower levels of rainfall and a leveling off at higher levels, with a small increase at higher levels. We did not find evidence for a relationship between 30-day precipitation and childhood illness. Trends of reduced rainfall in Uganda are likely having negative effects on child health.

IntroductionAlive and Thrive (A&T) implemented infant and young child feeding (IYCF) interventions in Bangladesh. We examine the sustained impacts on health workers' IYCF knowledge, service delivery, job satisfaction, and job readiness three years after the program's conclusion.MethodsWe use data from a cluster-randomized controlled trial design, including repeated cross-sectional surveys with health workers in 2010 (baseline, n = 290), 2014 (endline, n = 511) and 2017 (post-endline, n = 600). Health workers in 10 sub-districts were trained and incentivized to deliver intensified IYCF counseling, and participated in social mobilization activities, while health workers in 10 comparison sub-districts delivered standard counseling activities. Accompanying mass media and policy change activities occurred at the national level. The primary outcome is quality of IYCF service delivery (number of IYCF messages reportedly communicated during counseling); intermediate outcomes are IYCF knowledge, job satisfaction, and job readiness. We also assess the role of hypothesized modifiers of program sustainment, i.e. activities of the program: comprehensiveness of refresher trainings and receipt of financial incentives. Multivariable difference-in-difference linear regression models, including worker characteristic covariates and adjusted for clustering at the survey sampling level, are used to compare differences between groups (intervention vs. comparison areas) and over time (baseline, endline, post-endline).ResultsAt endline, health workers in intervention areas discussed significantly more IYCF topics than those in comparison areas (4.9 vs. 4.0 topics, p < 0.001), but levels decreased and the post-endline gap was no longer significant (4.0 vs. 3.3 topics, p = 0.067). Comprehensive refresher trainings were protective against deterioration in service delivery. Between baseline and endline, the intervention increased health workers' knowledge (3.5-point increase in knowledge scores in intervention areas, vs. 1.5-point increase in comparison areas, p < 0.0001); and this improvement persisted to post-endline, suggesting a sustained program effect on knowledge. Job satisfaction and readiness both saw improvements among workers in intervention areas during the project period (baseline to endline) but regressed to a similar level as comparison areas by post-endline.DiscussionOur study showed sustained impact of IYCF interventions on health workers' knowledge, but not job satisfaction or job readiness—and, critically, no sustained program effect on service delivery. Programs of limited duration may seek to assess the status of and invest in protective factors identified in this study (e.g., refresher trainings) to encourage sustained impact of improved service delivery. Studies should also prioritize collecting post-endline data to empirically test and refine concepts of sustainment.

Abstract Background Environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and vegetation cover play a critical role in malaria transmission. However, quantifying the relationships between environmental factors and measures of disease burden relevant for public health can be complex as effects are often non-linear and subject to temporal lags between when changes in environmental factors lead to changes in malaria incidence. The study investigated the effect of environmental covariates on malaria incidence in high transmission settings of Uganda. Methods This study leveraged data from seven malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high transmission settings of Uganda over a 24-month period. Estimates of monthly malaria incidence (MI) were derived from MRCs’ catchment areas. Environmental data including monthly temperature, rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were obtained from remote sensing sources. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to investigate the effect of environmental covariates on malaria incidence. Results Overall, the median (range) monthly temperature was 30 °C (26–47), rainfall 133.0 mm (3.0–247), NDVI 0.66 (0.24–0.80) and MI was 790 per 1000 person-years (73–3973). Temperature of 35 °C was significantly associated with malaria incidence compared to the median observed temperature (30 °C) at month lag 2 (IRR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.42–2.83) and the increased cumulative IRR of malaria at month lags 1–4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 8.16 (95% CI: 3.41–20.26) at lag-month 4. Rainfall of 200 mm significantly increased IRR of malaria compared to the median observed rainfall (133 mm) at lag-month 0 (IRR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.52) and the increased cumulative IRR of malaria at month lags 1–4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.99(95% CI: 1.22–2.27) at lag-month 4. Average NVDI of 0.72 significantly increased the cumulative IRR of malaria compared to the median observed NDVI (0.66) at month lags 2–4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.57(95% CI: 1.09–2.25) at lag-month 4. Conclusions In high-malaria transmission settings, high values of environmental covariates were associated with increased cumulative IRR of malaria, with IRR peaks at variable lag times. The complex associations identified are valuable for designing strategies for early warning, prevention, and control of seasonal malaria surges and epidemics.

Droughts are associated with poor health outcomes and disruption of public health programming. Data on the association between drought and HIV testing and transmission risk behaviors are limited. We combined data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 10 high HIV prevalence sub-Saharan African countries with a high-resolution measure of drought. We estimated the association between drought and recent HIV testing, report of condomless sex, and number of sexual partners in the last year. Respondents exposed to drought were less likely to have an HIV test and more likely to have condomless sex, although effect sizes were small. We found evidence for effect modification by sex and age for the association between drought and HIV testing, such that the negative association between drought and HIV testing was strongest among men (marginal risk ratio [mRR] 0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.95) and adolescents (mRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.93). Drought may hinder HIV testing programs in countries with high HIV prevalence.

Abstract Background Poor early-life nutrition is a major barrier to good health and cognitive development, and is a global health priority. Alive & Thrive (A&T) was a multi-pronged initiative to improve infant and young child feeding behaviors. It aimed to achieve at-scale child health and nutrition improvements via a comprehensive approach that included nutrition counseling by health workers, policy change, social mobilization and mass media activities. This study evaluated the sustainability of activities introduced during A&T implementation (2009–2014) in Bangladesh and Vietnam. Methods This was a mixed methods study that used a quasi-experimental design. Quantitative data (surveys with 668 health workers, and 269 service observations) were collected in 2017; and analysis compared outcomes (primarily dose and fidelity of activities, and capacity) in former A&T intervention areas versus areas that did not receive the full A&T intervention. Additionally, we conducted interviews and focus groups with 218 stakeholders to explore their impressions about the determinants of sustainability, based on a multi-level conceptual framework. Results After program conclusion, stakeholders perceive declines in mass media campaigns, policy and advocacy activities, and social mobilization activities – but counseling activities were institutionalized and continued in both countries. Quantitative data show a persisting modest intervention effect: health workers in intervention areas had significantly higher child feeding knowledge, and in Bangladesh greater self-efficacy and job satisfaction, compared to their counterparts who did not receive the full package of A&T activities. While elements of the program were integrated into routine services, stakeholders noted dilution of the program focus due to competing priorities. Qualitative data suggest that some elements, such as training, monitoring, and evaluation, which were seen as essential to A&T’s success, have declined in frequency, quality, coverage, or were eliminated altogether. Conclusions The inclusion of multiple activities in A&T and efforts to integrate the program into existing institutions were seen as crucial to its success but also made it difficult to sustain, particularly given unstable financial support and human resource constraints. Future complex programs should carefully plan for institutionalization in advance of the program by cultivating champions across the health system, and designing unique and complementary roles for all stakeholders including donors.