• Energy Research

Abstract This paper investigates possible scenarios of electric cars introduction and their impact on the Italian electricity system. Given the foreseen increased number of cars until the year 2030, three different scenarios in terms of penetration of electric vehicles have been considered, namely 10%, 20% and 40%. A detailed bottom up energy model of the Italian car fleet has been developed. The car fleet is analyzed in terms of energy consumption, carbon emissions and externalities costs. The scenarios analysis suggests that the introduction of electric cars would always lead to primary energy savings. In particular, the increase of the penetration corresponds to a decrease of primary energy consumption, carbon emissions and externalities costs.

Abstract Urban energy system modelling allows megacities to assess their future development and to draw sustainable pathways to meet the rapidly increasing energy needs. This paper elaborates three different scenarios for energy transition in Greater Cairo with particular emphasis on the impact of lowering the share of inhabitants living in informal settlements. A city-specific TIMES energy system model is used to investigate how energy supply and demand will evolve between 2015 and 2050. Besides, the impacts in final energy consumption and CO2 emissions are investigated considering different socio-economic pathways. The scenarios show that the long-term cost-efficiency optimization leads to the decarbonization of the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Climate policies are modeled to achieve by 2050 a carbon emissions reduction of 50% below the 2015 baseline. The results indicate that the implementation of current urban plans will double the carbon emissions per capita if no mitigation policies are adopted. The urban expansion programs need to take into consideration the energy-environment-economic nexus and to be coupled with climate mitigation policies to contain the rising carbon emissions.

Abstract The electrification of the road transport sector is seen as a necessary component to the urban decarbonization. A scenario analysis of electric cars deployment is developed by employing the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning platform to build a bottom-up model to evaluate the contribution to the energy transition in the long term. The difference with similar models available in the literature is represented by a detailed description of the car stock, which comprises twenty-eight categories of cars. The car stock is segmented according to the fuel, i.e., petrol and gasoline, engine displacement, i.e., small and medium, and fuel efficiency according to the Euro standard, i.e., from Euro 0 to Euro 6d. Such features can be applied to any EU country; therefore, the model has a European Union-wise applicability. To show the model effectiveness, an application to the Italian automotive sector focused on the estimation of energy consumption and polluting emissions is proposed in the period 2018–2030. The evolution of the Italian car stock and the corresponding energy consumption, emissions and externalities are estimated. The simulations show that a significant reduction in energy consumption up to 23% and a decrease of emissions is realistically achievable through the deployment of electric cars.

Abstract The implementation of energy efficiency measures is an effective way to gain energy savings in the Italian residential sector. This paper assesses the embodied energy impact related to the envelope insulation and evaluates the energy and carbon payback of the efficiency measures. The proposed method consists of (1) an estimation of the baseline operational energy consumption, (2) simulations of realistic retrofit solutions and, (3) the assessment of the ‘retrofitting’ embodied energy and the energy and carbon payback time calculation. The payback is based on the comparison between the saved operational energy and the embodied energy of the materials selected for insulation. Ten Italian cities are analysed, and the results show a deep dependence on the climate zone. In Northern Italian cities, envelope insulation gains relevance as the energy and carbon payback periods are shorter, about 3 years against the 84 years for the Southern city of Palermo. The optimal thickness is estimated for the city of Milan considering the building’s typology, the insulation materials, and the energy payback. This study shows how the total energy savings can be used as a criterion to obtain design indications.

The share of renewables in the electric power generation is rapidly increasing and shifting the buildings heating demand to electricity represents a sustainable solution to decrease the fossil fuel dependency. In this paper, the maximum share of heating demand that can be switched to electricity by using heat pumps, according to the power market capacity, is estimated. By determining market price, plants generation and fuel consumption, the optimal share is calculated in terms of carbon emissions minimization. The methodology is developed with the support of a bid stack model (BISM) that performs an hourly simulation of the electricity market. Firstly, the analysis is led considering values of the heat pumps coefficient of performance, COP, in the range between 2 and 4. Then a focus is made on the COP dependence on local climatic conditions. In addition, three different time schedules of heat pumps activity are modelled to simulate the final users’ habits. Italy is considered as a case study to test the model. Italian market conditions are particularly favourable for the heat pumps utilization. The analysis is developed ex-post for the year 2019 as well as an outlook for the 2030 is provided. For the 2019 results show that the Italian electricity market allows a penetration of heat pumps in the range of 10%–56% for COP values between 2 and 4. In 2030 switching rates in the order of 5%–10% are estimated due to tighter market conditions.