• Energy Research

Complex global social-ecological challenges of our time such as climate change, biodiversity loss or, more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic can neither be comprehensively understood nor properly addressed by employing a single disciplinary or sectoral perspective. For this reason, more and more large inter- and transdisciplinary (ITD) initiatives are on the rise, intending to open up the silo-like production of knowledge and to advance the integration of different fields of expertise within academia, but also across science, policy and practice. While the need for ITD initiatives in order to both understand and address the complexity of such global socio-ecological challenges has increasingly been acknowledged by research institutions, funders and public authorities, a question remains concerning the extent to which prevailing conditions suffice for conducting ITD research, particularly in terms of whether the envisioned integration of perspectives and actors really happen in practice. This paper embraces a holistic view on ITD integration by presenting both an analytical framework and empirical insights from three ITD initiatives based in Switzerland dealing with sustainable urban water management, (future) extreme events and cross-sectoral climate impacts and climate services in different socio-economic contexts. The framework is based on critical realist reasoning and employs a structure-agency lens by distinguishing conditions of integration at different structural levels, while also acknowledging the power of actors to shape integration and the respective structures. The paper thereby illustrates and helps diagnose the source of challenges experienced in living up to ITD integration endeavors and how these different structural levels are interrelated and impact ITD integration. We conclude by discussing entry points for action aimed at transforming currently unfavorable structures into favorable ones. We thereby intend to provide, in particular, insights for a wide range of actors interested in making sure that ITD initiatives intended to address the global social-ecological challenges of our time can realize their full integration potential in practice. Global Environmental Change, 91 ISSN:0959-3780 ISSN:1872-9495

Complex global social-ecological challenges of our time such as climate change, biodiversity loss or, more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic can neither be comprehensively understood nor properly addressed by employing a single disciplinary or sectoral perspective. For this reason, more and more large inter- and transdisciplinary (ITD) initiatives are on the rise, intending to open up the silo-like production of knowledge and to advance the integration of different fields of expertise within academia, but also across science, policy and practice. While the need for ITD initiatives in order to both understand and address the complexity of such global socio-ecological challenges has increasingly been acknowledged by research institutions, funders and public authorities, a question remains concerning the extent to which prevailing conditions suffice for conducting ITD research, particularly in terms of whether the envisioned integration of perspectives and actors really happen in practice. This paper embraces a holistic view on ITD integration by presenting both an analytical framework and empirical insights from three ITD initiatives based in Switzerland dealing with sustainable urban water management, (future) extreme events and cross-sectoral climate impacts and climate services in different socio-economic contexts. The framework is based on critical realist reasoning and employs a structure-agency lens by distinguishing conditions of integration at different structural levels, while also acknowledging the power of actors to shape integration and the respective structures. The paper thereby illustrates and helps diagnose the source of challenges experienced in living up to ITD integration endeavors and how these different structural levels are interrelated and impact ITD integration. We conclude by discussing entry points for action aimed at transforming currently unfavorable structures into favorable ones. We thereby intend to provide, in particular, insights for a wide range of actors interested in making sure that ITD initiatives intended to address the global social-ecological challenges of our time can realize their full integration potential in practice. Global Environmental Change, 91 ISSN:0959-3780 ISSN:1872-9495

As climate change leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, industry stakeholders and policymakers must assess their business strategies, practices, and entire sector policies under these uncertain conditions. Much recent research has integrated quantitative climate risk modeling into frameworks to engage policymakers and inform adaptation decisions in a general way, but relatively little attention has been devoted to extending this to strategic business and investment decisions. This falls short of identifying economic opportunities and threats in a wider socio-economic context, such as the development of new technologies or evolving political and regulatory environments. Here, a methodology is developed to integrate quantitative climate risk modeling with SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) which is commonly used in business and investment strategic planning. This moves the focus from avoidance of negative outcomes to prospective planning in an evolving environment. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of the Japanese wind energy sector, using open-access data and the open-source climate risk-assessment platform CLIMADA. This Climate risk assessment indicates threats from increasing damages to the wind energy infrastructure, as well as the profitability of typhoon-resistant wind turbines under present and future climate. Expert interviews and extensive literature research on opportunities and threats, however, also show that the transition towards renewable energies faces restrictive market dynamics, political and social hurdles, which set external conditions surpassing physically-informed dimensions. Beyond this illustrative case study, the methodology developed here bridges established concepts in climate risk modeling and strategic management and thus can be used to identify industry-centric ways forward for climate-resilient planning across a wide range of economic sectors. Climate Risk Management, 46 ISSN:2212-0963

As climate change leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, industry stakeholders and policymakers must assess their business strategies, practices, and entire sector policies under these uncertain conditions. Much recent research has integrated quantitative climate risk modeling into frameworks to engage policymakers and inform adaptation decisions in a general way, but relatively little attention has been devoted to extending this to strategic business and investment decisions. This falls short of identifying economic opportunities and threats in a wider socio-economic context, such as the development of new technologies or evolving political and regulatory environments. Here, a methodology is developed to integrate quantitative climate risk modeling with SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) which is commonly used in business and investment strategic planning. This moves the focus from avoidance of negative outcomes to prospective planning in an evolving environment. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of the Japanese wind energy sector, using open-access data and the open-source climate risk-assessment platform CLIMADA. This Climate risk assessment indicates threats from increasing damages to the wind energy infrastructure, as well as the profitability of typhoon-resistant wind turbines under present and future climate. Expert interviews and extensive literature research on opportunities and threats, however, also show that the transition towards renewable energies faces restrictive market dynamics, political and social hurdles, which set external conditions surpassing physically-informed dimensions. Beyond this illustrative case study, the methodology developed here bridges established concepts in climate risk modeling and strategic management and thus can be used to identify industry-centric ways forward for climate-resilient planning across a wide range of economic sectors. Climate Risk Management, 46 ISSN:2212-0963

Abstract Coral reefs ecosystems, often compared to rain forests for their high biodiversity, are threatened by ocean warming causing coral bleaching when the symbiotic relationship between dinoflagellates and corals breaks under high ocean temperatures. Thermal stress from marine heatwaves (MHWs) occur both at the surface and subsurface with subsurface MHWs lasting longer with potentially higher cumulative intensities. However, global coral bleaching models generally ignore the differences in thermal stress between surface and sea-bed levels. Here, we define MHWs at sea-bed level to model coral bleaching with daily resolution from 6 May 1993 to 31 October 2023, for 9944 tropical coral reefs between 0 and 60 m depths. We show that deeper reefs experience on average higher thermal stress and bleaching compared to surface reefs. Using surface temperature data to model bleaching for deeper corals underestimates bleaching intensities by an average of 6% ± 9% compared to the subsurface calibrated model. Our study is a starting point for more accurate coral bleaching modelling, providing additional evidence to reshape our perception of deeper coral reefs as potential refugees from climate change.

Abstract Coral reefs ecosystems, often compared to rain forests for their high biodiversity, are threatened by ocean warming causing coral bleaching when the symbiotic relationship between dinoflagellates and corals breaks under high ocean temperatures. Thermal stress from marine heatwaves (MHWs) occur both at the surface and subsurface with subsurface MHWs lasting longer with potentially higher cumulative intensities. However, global coral bleaching models generally ignore the differences in thermal stress between surface and sea-bed levels. Here, we define MHWs at sea-bed level to model coral bleaching with daily resolution from 6 May 1993 to 31 October 2023, for 9944 tropical coral reefs between 0 and 60 m depths. We show that deeper reefs experience on average higher thermal stress and bleaching compared to surface reefs. Using surface temperature data to model bleaching for deeper corals underestimates bleaching intensities by an average of 6% ± 9% compared to the subsurface calibrated model. Our study is a starting point for more accurate coral bleaching modelling, providing additional evidence to reshape our perception of deeper coral reefs as potential refugees from climate change.

AbstractHeat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.