• Energy Research

This is the database of articles "Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk". The database contains the number of deaths caused by future heat waves in countries around the world under different SSP scenarios (e.g. SSP119, SSP245, SSP585), as well as global health losses, labor losses, and indirect losses as a percentage of national or sectoral value added under different SSP scenarios.

In addition to the well-constrained inorganic acid-base chemistry of ammonia resulting in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) formation, ammonia also reacts with certain organic compounds in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) to produce less basic nitrogen-containing organic compounds. In this study, the potential meteorology and air quality impacts of the heterogeneous uptake of NH3 by SOA are investigated using the WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled model, which calculates the two-way radiative forcing feedback caused by aerosol between meteorology and chemistry in a single simulation. Simulations with and without the NH3-SOA uptake are performed over the contiguous US for July 2014 and July 2050 under the RCP 8.5 IPCC scenario to study the potential impact of climate change. A comparison with multiple observation network data shows that the NH3-SOA uptake improves the model performance for PM2.5 prediction (bias reduced from −22% to −17%), especially the underestimation of organic carbon over the Southeastern US (bias reduced from −17% to −7%). Secondly, the addition of the NH3-SOA chemistry significantly impacts the concentration of NH3 and NH4+, thus affecting the modeled particle acidity. Including the NH3-SOA uptake also impacts the meteorological conditions through the WRF-CMAQ two-way feedback. Moreover, the impact on meteorological conditions results in different windspeed or dispersion conditions, thus affecting air quality predictions. Finally, simulations including the NH3-SOA uptake under the warmer climate conditions of 2050 show a smaller impact on air quality predictions than it does under current climate conditions. This study confirms the importance and necessity of including NH3-SOA chemistry in air quality predictions.

Abstract Regional air pollution is strongly impacted by transportation emissions. Policy mechanisms to reduce emissions are required to reach environmental quality goals. Projecting the drivers (e.g., technical, economic, societal, regulatory) that will impact future emissions is challenging, and assessing regional air quality (AQ) is complicated by the need for detailed modeling tools and data inputs to simulate chemistry and transport of pollutants. This work assesses the contribution of emissions from transportation sources to ground-level concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter via two methods. First, impacts are quantified for three U.S. regions including California using output from an economic optimization model to grow a base year emissions inventory to 2055. Second, impacts are considered for California using state-level projections with an updated emissions inventory and modeling suite in 2035. For both, advanced AQ models are used, showing that the impacts of light duty vehicles are moderate, reflecting shifts to more efficient and lower emitting technologies. In contrast, heavy duty vehicles, ships, and off-road equipment are associated with important ozone and PM2.5 burdens. Emissions from petroleum fuel production and distribution activities also have notable impacts on ozone and PM2.5. These transportation sub-sectors should be the focus of future emissions reduction policies.

In this study we analyze the impact of major drivers of future air quality, both separately and simultaneously, for the year 2035 in three major California air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB), the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). A variety of scenarios are considered based on changes in climate-driven meteorological conditions and both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. Anthropogenic emissions are based on (1) the California Air Resources Board (CARB) California Emissions Projection Analysis Model (CEPAM), (2) increases in electric sector emissions due to climate change, and (3) aggressive adoption of alternative energy technologies electrification of end-use technologies, and energy efficiency measures. Results indicate that climate-driven changes in meteorological conditions will significantly alter day-to-day variations in future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations, likely increasing the frequency and severity of pollution periods in regions that already experience poor air quality and increasing health risks from pollutant exposure. Increases in biogenic and anthropogenic emissions due to climate change are important during the summer seasons, but have little effect on pollutant concentrations during the winter. Results also indicate that controlling anthropogenic emissions will play a critical role in mitigating climate-driven increases in both ozone and PM2.5 concentrations in the most populated areas of California. In the absence of anthropogenic emissions controls, climate change will worsen ozone air quality throughout the state, increasing exceedances of ambient air quality standards. If planned reductions in anthropogenic emissions are implemented, ozone air quality throughout the less urban areas of the state may be improved in the year 2035, but regions such as the SoCAB and the east SFBA will likely continue to experience high ozone concentrations throughout the summer season. Climate change and anthropogenic emissions controls are both found to decrease wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in the SJV, eliminating nearly all exceedances of PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in the year 2035. However, reductions in anthropogenic emissions are unable to fully mitigate the impact of climate change on PM2.5 concentrations in the SoCAB and east SFBA. Thus, while future air quality in the SJV is projected to be improved in the year 2035, air quality in the SoCAB and east SFBA will remain similar or marginally worsen compared to present day levels. Conversely, we find that aggressive adoption of alternative energy technologies including renewable resources, electrification of end-use technologies, and energy efficiency measures can offset the impacts of climate change. Overall, the two main drivers for air quality in 2035 are changes in meteorological conditions due to climate change and reductions in anthropogenic emissions.