• Energy Research

The Mediterranean region faces significant challenges to supply its growing population with food and living space. The region’s potential to do so in the future is even more uncertain in the light of global change effects, particularly climate and socio-economic change. Until know, it was unknown how land use and land management can respond to such global challenges. We present a set of scenarios on potential future changes to Mediterranean land systems. First, we present two different pathways in fulfilling the growing demand for crops, livestock and urban space. One is oriented towards growth, without any restrictions in terms of limiting the withdrawal of water for irrigation or expansion of protected areas. The second presents a future, where consumption of water for irrigation is reduced, and the network of protected areas is significantly expanded. The second set of scenarios presents how land use and land management might respond to different levels of reduced water losses in the irrigation systems. Irrigated cropland in the region is characterized by different levels of efficiency. In the study we show, that significant reductions of water losses is necessary in order to increase crop production in the region. The maps present the spatial distribution of Mediterranean land systems today and in the future (2050), and can be imported in a GIS. The maps are created in a Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection with a resolution of 2 x 2 km (custom projection with more details in the file "readme_projection"). We used the CLUMondo spatial allocation model in both studies. We present a novel approach, where we limit cropland intensification based on accessible water resources. Moreover, we studied what would decreases in water resources due to climate change mean to land use and land management. More information on the model in the publications and on www.environmentalgeography.nl The resulting scenarios can be used numerous ways: Evaluating different strategies to improve cropland productivity and increase crop production (implementing irrigation, improving irrigation efficiency, cropland intensification, crop type specialization, changes to multifunctionality…) Studying changes to Mediterranean terrestrial biodiversity and landscapes Identifying areas with different priorities: crop production, livestock grazing, biodiversity protection…

AbstractConversion of semi-natural habitats, such as field margins, fallows, hedgerows, grassland, woodlots and forests, to agricultural land could increase agricultural production and help meet rising global food demand. Yet, the extent to which such habitat loss would impact biodiversity and wild species is unknown. Here we survey species richness for four taxa (vascular plants, earthworms, spiders, wild bees) and agricultural yield across a range of arable, grassland, mixed, horticulture, permanent crop, for organic and non-organic agricultural land on 169 farms across 10 European regions. We find that semi-natural habitats currently constitute 23% of land area with 49% of species unique to these habitats. We estimate that conversion of semi-natural land that achieves a 10% increase in agricultural production will have the greatest impact on biodiversity in arable systems and the least impact in grassland systems, with organic practices having better species retention than non-organic practices. Our findings will help inform sustainable agricultural development.

Summary There is a high demand for biodiversity observation data to inform conservation and environmental policy, and citizen scientists generate the vast majority of terrestrial biodiversity observations. As this work is voluntary, many people assume that these data are openly available for use in conservation and scientific research. Here, the openness of biodiversity observation data that are contributed to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility is examined by the data provider. Contrary to what many people assume, data sets from volunteers are among the most restrictive in how they can be used. Policy implications. The assumption that voluntary data collection leads to data sharing does not recognize the wishes and motivations of those who collect data, nor does it respect the crucial contributions of these data to long‐term monitoring of biodiversity trends. To improve data openness, citizen scientists should be recognized in ways that correspond with their motivations. Furthermore, organizations that manage these data should make their data sharing policies open and explicit.

Global sustainability initiatives are gaining momentum and impact, and place-based research can provide complementary insights to strengthen them. Here, we explore the current and potential role of place-based research into informing global sustainability initiatives by assessing the strengths, challenges, and opportunities. We show that place-based research allows for a better understanding of global social–ecological dynamics, and that transformations towards sustainability are often triggered at the local scale through the co-construction of local solutions. We discuss that the very nature of place-based research can hinder its transferability because its global integration faces temporal, spatial and governance scale mismatches, and we identify some of the key challenges of scaling-up its findings. We highlight new opportunities to mainstream place-based research that are emerging from first, long-term networks of place-based research, second, new institutional research settings that contribute with conceptual comprehensive frameworks and capacity building tools, third, a global community of practice, and fourth, the concept of region as a bridge between local and global sustainability initiatives. We believe that the time is ripe to promote the role of place-based social–ecological research as a key contributor to achieve global sustainability goals.

AbstractEfficient management of biodiversity requires a forward‐looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land‐use and land‐cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land‐use and land‐cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward‐looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.