• Energy Research

AbstractVertical mixing parameterizations in ocean models are formulated on the basis of the physical principles that govern turbulent mixing. However, many parameterizations include ad hoc components that are not well constrained by theory or data. One such component is the eddy diffusivity model, where vertical turbulent fluxes of a quantity are parameterized from a variable eddy diffusion coefficient and the mean vertical gradient of the quantity. In this work, we improve a parameterization of vertical mixing in the ocean surface boundary layer by enhancing its eddy diffusivity model using data‐driven methods, specifically neural networks. The neural networks are designed to take extrinsic and intrinsic forcing parameters as input to predict the eddy diffusivity profile and are trained using output data from a second moment closure turbulent mixing scheme. The modified vertical mixing scheme predicts the eddy diffusivity profile through online inference of neural networks and maintains the conservation principles of the standard ocean model equations, which is particularly important for its targeted use in climate simulations. We describe the development and stable implementation of neural networks in an ocean general circulation model and demonstrate that the enhanced scheme outperforms its predecessor by reducing biases in the mixed‐layer depth and upper ocean stratification. Our results demonstrate the potential for data‐driven physics‐aware parameterizations to improve global climate models.

The ocean is a turbulent fluid with processes acting on a variety of spatio-temporal scales. The estimates of energy fluxes between length scales allows us to understand how the mean flow is maintained as well as how mesoscale eddies are formed and dissipated. Here, we quantify the kinetic energy budget in a suite of realistic global ocean models, with varying horizontal resolution and horizontal viscosity. We show that eddy-permitting ocean models have weaker kinetic energy cascades than eddy-resolving models due to discrepancies in the effect of wind forcing, horizontal viscosity, potential to kinetic energy conversion, and nonlinear interactions on the kinetic energy (KE) budget. However, the change in eddy kinetic energy between the eddy-permitting and the eddy-resolving model is not enough to noticeably change the scale where the inverse cascade arrests or the Rhines scale. In addition, we show that the mechanism by which baroclinic flows organise into barotropic flows is weaker at lower resolution, resulting in a more baroclinic flow. Hence, the horizontal resolution impacts the vertical structure of the simulated flow. Our results suggest that the effect of mesoscale eddies can be parameterised by enhancing the potential to kinetic energy conversion, i.e., the horizontal pressure gradients, or enhancing the inverse cascade of kinetic energy.

Abstract A conceptual model of ocean heat uptake is developed as a multilayer generalization of Gnanadesikan. The roles of Southern Ocean Ekman and eddy transports, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, and diapycnal mixing in controlling ocean stratification and transient heat uptake are investigated under climate change scenarios, including imposed surface warming, increased Southern Ocean wind forcing, with or without eddy compensation, and weakened meridional overturning circulation (MOC) induced by reduced NADW formation. With realistic profiles of diapycnal mixing, ocean heat uptake is dominated by Southern Ocean Ekman transport and its long-term adjustment controlled by the Southern Ocean eddy transport. The time scale of adjustment setting the rate of ocean heat uptake increases with depth. For scenarios with increased Southern Ocean wind forcing or weakened MOC, deepened stratification results in enhanced ocean heat uptake. In each of these experiments, the role of diapycnal mixing in setting ocean stratification and heat uptake is secondary. Conversely, in experiments with enhanced diapycnal mixing as employed in “upwelling diffusion” slab models, the contributions of diapycnal mixing and Southern Ocean Ekman transport to the net heat uptake are comparable, but the stratification extends unrealistically to the sea floor. The simple model is applied to interpret the output of an Earth system model, the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased by 1% yr−1 until quadrupling, where it is found that Southern Ocean Ekman transport is essential to reproduce the magnitude and vertical profile of ocean heat uptake.

AbstractSea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

SignificanceSince the 19th century, rising greenhouse gas concentrations have caused the ocean to absorb most of the Earth’s excess heat and warm up. Before the 1990s, most ocean temperature measurements were above 700 m and therefore, insufficient for an accurate global estimate of ocean warming. We present a method to reconstruct ocean temperature changes with global, full-depth ocean coverage, revealing warming of 436×1021J since 1871. Our reconstruction, which agrees with other estimates for the well-observed period, demonstrates that the ocean absorbed as much heat during 1921–1946 as during 1990–2015. Since the 1950s, up to one-half of excess heat in the Atlantic Ocean at midlatitudes has come from other regions via circulation-related changes in heat transport.

Data from "Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes" by Bronselaer & Zanna, 2020, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2573-5 The files contain Linear Change in Ocean Heat Content (top 2000 m) relative to 1951 for observations and CMIP5 data, and the decomposition into added and redistributed (due to changes in ocean circulation).

Reconstruction of 1870-2018 ocean heat content (OHC_GF_1870_2018.nc) and thermosteric sea level (ThSL_GF_1870_2018.nc) using Green's functions. The method is described in Zanna et al., PNAS, 2019 This dataset is an update from the original published version with changes described here.