• Energy Research

The Arctic climate system is in great distress, warming faster than the rest of the world and transforming more rapidly than previously anticipated. Sustained and harmonized multidisciplinary observations at key locations are needed to fill knowledge gaps and evaluate the ongoing climate change impacts on the complex Arctic marine system. For more than a decade, the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) has functioned as a “detection array” for ecosystem changes and trends in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean. This long-term collaborative initiative builds on active involvement of scientists conducting in situ observations within marine disciplines to systematically document how the arctic marine ecosystem is transforming with environmental change. The DBO concept is currently being expanded into other sectors of the Arctic, including Davis Strait and Baffin Bay, the Atlantic Arctic gateway area, and the East Siberian Sea. Through increased collaboration and joint practices, findings from these regional areas can leverage to pan-Arctic perspectives and improve our understanding of the entire Arctic Ocean. Common practices are now being developed, including key phenomena and relevant indicators to study. Also, we strive towards harmonized routines for sampling, analysis and data sharing to increase the comparability across both disciplines and regions, and to improve the usability of our in-situ observations also for the modelling and remote sensing scopes. An ambition is, moreover, to expand from today's predominantly open-sea coverage towards coastal regions, to the benefit of both local communities and researchers. The process of establishing a pan-Arctic DBO network is to a large part facilitated by the EU Horizon project Arctic PASSION (2022-2025). Here, we present the latest developments and shared priorities, as well as our vision of how to incorporate our efforts into other parallel processes aiming to strengthen the pan-Arctic observing system towards, during and beyond the upcoming IPY.

The ocean capacity to store carbon is crucial, and currently absorbs about 25% CO2 supply to the atmosphere. The ability to store carbon has an economic value, but such estimates are not common for ocean environments, and not yet estimated for the Arctic Ocean. With the severe climatic changes in the Arctic Ocean, impacting sea ice and potentially the vertical carbon transport mechanisms, a projection of future changes in Arctic Ocean carbon storage is also of interest. In order to value present and evolving carbon storage in the changing Arctic marine environment we combine an ocean model with an economic analysis. Placing a value on these changes helps articulate the importance of the carbon storage service to society. The standing stock and fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon from the atmosphere, rivers, shelves and through the gateways linking to lower latitudes, and to the deep of the Arctic Ocean are investigated using the physically chemically biologically coupled SINMOD model. To obtain indications of the effect of climate change, trajectories of two IPCC climate scenarios RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 from the Max Planck Institute were used for the period 2006–2099. The results show an increase in the net carbon storage in the Arctic Ocean in this time period to be 1.0 and 2.3% in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Most of this increase is caused by an increased atmospheric CO2 uptake until 2070. The continued increase in inorganic carbon storage between 2070 and 2099 results from increased horizontal influx from lower latitude marine regions. First estimates of carbon storage values in the Arctic Ocean are calculated using the social cost of carbon (SCC) and carbon market values as two outer bounds from 2019 to 2099, based on the simulated scenarios. We find the Arctic Ocean will over the time period studied increase its storage of carbon to a value of between €27.6 billion and €1 trillion. This paper clearly neglects a multitude of different negative consequences of climate change in the Arctic, but points to the fact that there are also some positive counterbalancing effects.

The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006): inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.Keywords: Sea ice; climate change; ecosystem function; carbon cycling.(Published: 15 April 2015)Citation: Polar Research 2015, 34, 24252, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/polar.v34.24252

The Barents Sea is one of the Polar regions where current climate and ecosystem change is most pronounced. Here we review the current state of knowledge of the physical, chemical and biological systems in the Barents Sea. Physical conditions in this area are characterized by large seasonal contrasts between partial sea-ice cover in winter and spring versus predominantly open water in summer and autumn. Observations over recent decades show that surface air and ocean temperatures have increased, sea-ice extent has decreased, ocean stratification has weakened, and water chemistry and ecosystem components have changed, the latter in a direction often described as “Atlantification” or “borealisation,” with a less “Arctic” appearance. Temporal and spatial changes in the Barents Sea have a wider relevance, both in the context of large-scale climatic (air, water mass and sea-ice) transport processes and in comparison to other Arctic regions. These observed changes also have socioeconomic consequences, including for fisheries and other human activities. While several of the ongoing changes are monitored and quantified, observation and knowledge gaps remain, especially for winter months when field observations and sample collections are still sparse. Knowledge of the interplay of physical and biogeochemical drivers and ecosystem responses, including complex feedback processes, needs further development.