• Energy Research
• 15. Life on land close

AbstractSavanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management.

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process‐based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux‐tower‐based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free‐Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr−1) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr−1). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr−1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr−1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model‐to‐model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is −3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr−1 °C−1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (−3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr−1 °C−1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation‐based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.

AbstractAn integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

Abstract. In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of “framing pathways” such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two “worlds that could have been”. One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7.

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), have affected the global climate. Land-based biological carbon mitigation strategies are considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization. However, to satisfy the growing demands for food, wood products, energy, climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation-all of which compete for increasingly limited quantities of biomass and land-the deployment of mitigation strategies must be driven by sustainable and integrated land management. If executed accordingly, through avoided emissions and carbon sequestration, biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon and 3-8% of estimated energy consumption, respectively, by 2050.

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the key determinant of land carbon uptake, but its representation in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) does not reflect our latest physiological understanding. We implemented three empirically well supported but often omitted mechanisms into the TBM CABLE-POP: photosynthetic temperature acclimation, explicit mesophyll conductance, and photosynthetic optimization through redistribution of leaf nitrogen. We used the RCP8.5 climate scenario to conduct factorial model simulations characterizing the individual and combined effects of the three mechanisms on projections of GPP. Simulated global GPP increased more strongly (up to 20% by 2070–2099) in more comprehensive representations of photosynthesis compared to the model lacking the three mechanisms. The experiments revealed non-additive interactions among the mechanisms as combined effects were stronger than the sum of the individual effects. The modeled responses are explained by changes in the photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and CO 2 caused by the added mechanisms. Our results suggest that current TBMs underestimate GPP responses to future CO 2 and climate conditions.