• Energy Research

AbstractAimRivers belong to the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Historical anthropogenic alterations have, and future climate change will further affect rivers and the species therein. While many studies have projected climate change effects on species, little is known about the severity of these changes compared to historical alterations. Here, we used a unique 300‐year time series of hydrological and climate data to explore the vulnerability of 48 native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin to past and potential future environmental changes.LocationUpper Danube River Basins (Germany and Austria).MethodsWe applied a climate niche factor analysis and calculated species‐specific vulnerability estimates based on modelled and observed hydrological and climate data from 1800 to 2100. We compared the estimated species vulnerabilities between two historical time intervals (1800–1830 and 1900–1930) and a future time interval (2070–2100, including the two representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to an observed reference time interval (1970–2000). In addition, we identified the main environmental drivers of species vulnerability and their change over the past 200 years and for the predicted 100 years in the future.ResultsOur results showed that (i) in the past, species vulnerability was mainly driven by changes in discharge, while (ii) future potential vulnerabilities would be due to temperature. Moreover, we found that (iii) future environmental conditions for riverine fish species driven by temperature would change at a similar magnitude as past hydrological changes, driven by anthropogenic river alterations. Future changes, projected for the RCP 4.5, would result in moderate species vulnerability, whereas for the RCP 8.5, the vulnerability for all species would substantially increase compared to the historical conditions.Main ConclusionAccounting for an extended timeline uncovers the extent of historical pressures and provides unprecedented opportunities to proactively plan conservation strategies that are necessary to address future challenges.

AbstractAimRivers belong to the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Historical anthropogenic alterations have, and future climate change will further affect rivers and the species therein. While many studies have projected climate change effects on species, little is known about the severity of these changes compared to historical alterations. Here, we used a unique 300‐year time series of hydrological and climate data to explore the vulnerability of 48 native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin to past and potential future environmental changes.LocationUpper Danube River Basins (Germany and Austria).MethodsWe applied a climate niche factor analysis and calculated species‐specific vulnerability estimates based on modelled and observed hydrological and climate data from 1800 to 2100. We compared the estimated species vulnerabilities between two historical time intervals (1800–1830 and 1900–1930) and a future time interval (2070–2100, including the two representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to an observed reference time interval (1970–2000). In addition, we identified the main environmental drivers of species vulnerability and their change over the past 200 years and for the predicted 100 years in the future.ResultsOur results showed that (i) in the past, species vulnerability was mainly driven by changes in discharge, while (ii) future potential vulnerabilities would be due to temperature. Moreover, we found that (iii) future environmental conditions for riverine fish species driven by temperature would change at a similar magnitude as past hydrological changes, driven by anthropogenic river alterations. Future changes, projected for the RCP 4.5, would result in moderate species vulnerability, whereas for the RCP 8.5, the vulnerability for all species would substantially increase compared to the historical conditions.Main ConclusionAccounting for an extended timeline uncovers the extent of historical pressures and provides unprecedented opportunities to proactively plan conservation strategies that are necessary to address future challenges.

The capacity of ecosystems to supply ecosystem services is decreasing. Sustaining this supply requires an understanding of the links between the impacts of pressures introduced by human activities and how this can lead to changes in the supply of services. Here, we apply a novel approach, assessing 'risk to ecosystem service supply' (RESS), across a range of aquatic ecosystems in seven case studies. We link aggregate impact risk from human activities on ecosystem components, with a relative score of their potential to supply services. The greatest RESS is found where an ecosystem component with a high potential to supply services is subject to high impact risk. In this context, we explore variability in RESS across 99 types of aquatic ecosystem component from 11 realms, ranging from oceanic to wetlands. We explore some causes of variability in the RESS observed, including assessment area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population density. We found that Lakes, Rivers, Inlets and Coastal realms had some of the highest RESS, though this was highly dependent on location. We found a positive relationship between impact risk and service supply potential, indicating the ecosystem components we rely on most for services, are also those most at risk. However, variability in this relationship indicates that protecting the supply of ecosystem services alone will not protect all parts of the ecosystem at high risk. Broad socio-economic factors explained some of the variability found in RESS. For example, RESS was positively associated with GDP and artificial and agricultural land use in most realms, highlighting the need to achieve balance between increasing GDP and sustaining ecosystem health and human wellbeing more broadly. This approach can be used for sustainable management of ecosystem service use, to highlight the ecosystem components most critical to supplying services, and those most at risk.

The capacity of ecosystems to supply ecosystem services is decreasing. Sustaining this supply requires an understanding of the links between the impacts of pressures introduced by human activities and how this can lead to changes in the supply of services. Here, we apply a novel approach, assessing 'risk to ecosystem service supply' (RESS), across a range of aquatic ecosystems in seven case studies. We link aggregate impact risk from human activities on ecosystem components, with a relative score of their potential to supply services. The greatest RESS is found where an ecosystem component with a high potential to supply services is subject to high impact risk. In this context, we explore variability in RESS across 99 types of aquatic ecosystem component from 11 realms, ranging from oceanic to wetlands. We explore some causes of variability in the RESS observed, including assessment area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population density. We found that Lakes, Rivers, Inlets and Coastal realms had some of the highest RESS, though this was highly dependent on location. We found a positive relationship between impact risk and service supply potential, indicating the ecosystem components we rely on most for services, are also those most at risk. However, variability in this relationship indicates that protecting the supply of ecosystem services alone will not protect all parts of the ecosystem at high risk. Broad socio-economic factors explained some of the variability found in RESS. For example, RESS was positively associated with GDP and artificial and agricultural land use in most realms, highlighting the need to achieve balance between increasing GDP and sustaining ecosystem health and human wellbeing more broadly. This approach can be used for sustainable management of ecosystem service use, to highlight the ecosystem components most critical to supplying services, and those most at risk.

The data contains vulnerability estimates (climate niche factor analysis) for 49 native fish species in the upper Danube River basin. The upper Danube River basin is mainly located in Germany and Austria. The time frame covered is 300 years from 1800 to 2100 including two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Vulnerability estimates are calculated for three time frames (1800-1830; 1900-1930and 2070-2100 (including two RCPs)) with the time frame 1970-2000 as the baseline. In all files the zone column gives the basin ID for the master basins layer. The mean column gives the mean vulnerability estimate for a sub-basin for a certain species. For the future scenarios the different predictions based on the different GCM-RCM combinations have to be combined using the median and the zone as unique identifier.

The data contains vulnerability estimates (climate niche factor analysis) for 49 native fish species in the upper Danube River basin. The upper Danube River basin is mainly located in Germany and Austria. The time frame covered is 300 years from 1800 to 2100 including two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Vulnerability estimates are calculated for three time frames (1800-1830; 1900-1930and 2070-2100 (including two RCPs)) with the time frame 1970-2000 as the baseline. In all files the zone column gives the basin ID for the master basins layer. The mean column gives the mean vulnerability estimate for a sub-basin for a certain species. For the future scenarios the different predictions based on the different GCM-RCM combinations have to be combined using the median and the zone as unique identifier.