• Energy Research
• 14. Life underwater close

This paper presents the results of a number of aircraft- and boat-based surveys for seabird breeding colonies in East and North Greenland carried out in the period 2003 to 2018 and gives the first comprehensive overview of the distribution and size of the seabird breeding colonies in this remote and mainly uninhabited region. Seventeen seabird species breed in approximately 800 sites distributed very unevenly along the coasts, with high concentrations at the polynyas and long stretches with very few breeding seabirds. Climate changes are in full progress in East and North Greenland, especially affecting the sea ice regime, and seabirds are expected to respond to these changes in different ways. For example, since the 1980s, Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima) have extended their breeding range more than two latitudinal degrees towards the north, now reaching the northernmost land on Earth. Lesser Black-backed Gulls (Larus fuscus) and Great Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) have immigrated, and Sabine’s Gulls (Xema sabini) have increased and extended their range. Besides presenting survey results, this report may also serve as a baseline for future studies of the abundance of breeding seabirds in East and North Greenland.

Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via immigration from the South, many Arctic vertebrates are expected to become increasingly threatened during this century.

AbstractThe high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator–prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long‐tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20‐year‐long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predator–prey interactions. The lemming–predator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming–predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic.

Natural catastrophic events such as heavy rainfall and windstorms may induce drastic decreases in breeding success of animal populations. We report the impacts of summer rainfalls on the reproductive success of ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) in north-east Greenland. On two occasions, at Amdrup Land in July 2009 and at Station Nord in July 2011, we observed massive ivory gull breeding failures following violent rainfall and windstorms that hit the colonies. In each colony, all of the breeding birds abandoned their eggs or chicks during the storm. Juvenile mortality was close to 100% at Amdrup Land in 2009 and 100% at Station Nord in 2011. Our results show that strong winds associated with heavy rain directly affected the reproductive success of some Arctic bird species. Such extreme weather events may become more common with climate change and represent a new potential factor affecting ivory gull breeding success in the High Arctic.Keywords: Pagophila eburnea; breeding failure; Greenland; endangered species; summer precipitation; climate change.(Published: 13 March 2014)Citation: Polar Research 2014, 33, 22749, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/polar.v33.22749

Assessing the Arctic The Arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid climate change currently under way across the globe, but consequent ecological responses have not been widely reported. At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, Post et al. (p. 1355 ) review observations on ecological impacts in this sensitive region. The widespread changes occurring in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, presage changes at lower latitudes that will affect natural resources, food production, and future climate buffering.

The ivory gull, a rare high-Arctic species whose main habitat throughout the year is sea ice, is currently listed in Greenland as ‘Vulnerable’, and as ‘Endangered’ in Canada, where the population declined by 80% in 20 years. Despite this great concern, the status of the species in Greenland has been largely unknown as it breeds in remote areas and in colonies for which population data has rarely, if at all, been collected. Combining bibliographical research, land surveys, aerial surveys and satellite tracking, we were able to identify 35 breeding sites, including 20 new ones, in North and East Greenland. Most colonies are found in North Greenland and the largest are located on islands and lowlands. The current best estimate for the size of the Greenland population is approx. 1,800 breeding birds, but the real figure is probably >4,000 adult birds (i.e. >2,000 pairs) since all colonies have not yet been discovered and since only 50% or less of the breeding birds are usually present in the colonies at the time the censuses take place. Although this estimate is four to eight times higher than that previously arrived at, the species seems to be declining in the south of its Greenland breeding range, while in North Greenland the trends are unclear and unpredictable, calling for increased monitoring efforts.

Kubelka et al . (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.