• Energy Research

12 Pág. Mixed forests are suggested as a strategic adaptation of forest management to climate change. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) are tree species of high economic and ecological value for European forestry. Both species coexist naturally in a large part of their distributions but there is a lack of knowledge on the ecological functioning of mixtures of these species and how to manage such stands. This paper analyses these species’ intra- and inter-specific competition, including size-symmetric vs. size-asymmetric competition, and explore the effect of weather conditions on tree growth and competition. We studied basal area growth at tree level for Scots pine and Norway spruce in mixed versus pure stands in 22 triplets of fully-stocked plots along a broad range of ecological conditions across Europe. Stand inventory and increment cores provided insights into how species mixing modifies tree growth compared with neighbouring pure stands. Five different competition indices, weather variables and their interactions were included and checked in basal area growth models using a linear mixed model approach. Interspecific size-asymmetric competition strongly influenced growth for both tree species, and was modulated by weather conditions. However, species height stratification in mixed stands resulted in a greater tree basal area growth of Scots pine (10.5 cm2 year−1) than in pure stands (9.3 cm2 year−1), as this species occupies the upper canopy layer. Scots pine growth depended on temperature and drought, whereas Norway spruce growth was influenced only by drought. Interspecific site-asymmetric competition increased in cold winters for Scots pine, and decreased after a drought year for Norway spruce. Although mixtures of these species may reduce tree size for Norway spruce, our results suggest that this could be offset by faster growth in Scots pine. How inter-specific competition and weather conditions alter tree growth may have strong implications for the management of Scots pine-Norway spruce mixtures along the rotation period into the ongoing climate change scenario. The networking of this study was supported by the REFORM project (number FR-2017/0001, Resilience of forest mixtures: Mixed Species forest management. Lowering risk, increasing resilience) from the ERA-Net Sumforest. We thank national funders of REFORM project (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation: PCIN2017-026, Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) S-SUMFOREST-17-1, Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) FR-2017/0001) and those funders for the support to non-participants in the REFORM project (Denmark: Contract between Danish Ministry of Environment and Food and Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management of UCPH; Estonia: Estonian University of Life Sciences projects number P180024MIME and P200029MIME; Poland: EU CARE4C project (GA 778322) supported by the Polish Government MNiSW2018-2021 matching fund (W117/H2020/2018); Slovakia: APVV-15-0265). We also thank to all national project partners and forest owners who allowed us to establish and measure the triplets in this study. Peer reviewed

AbstractClimate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree‐ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine‐learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial–temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960–2010. We used the block cross‐validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040–2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early‐spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.