• Energy Research

Summary An asymmetric increase in night‐time temperatures (NTs) on hot days is one of the main features of global climate change. But the biological effects of an increased night‐time temperature combined with high daytime temperature are unclear. We used six thermal regimens to simulate NTs on hot days and investigated the effects of night warming on life‐history traits of the English grain aphid Sitobion avenae. Experimental temperatures fluctuated in continuous diurnal cycles, increasing from 27 °C to a maximum 35 °C and then declining to 27 °C gradually before further dropping to different minima (13, 16, 19, 21, 23 or 25 °C) representing NTs. When compared to expectations based on constant temperatures, night warming raised the optimum temperature for development by 3 °C, in contrast to results from experiments where temperature variability was altered symmetrically or in a parallel manner. Night warming also reduced aphid survival under heat from 75% to 37% and depressed adult performance by up to 50%. Overall, night warming exacerbated the detrimental effects of hot days on the intrinsic rate of population increase, which was predicted to drop by 30% when night‐time minimum temperatures exceeded 20 °C. Our novel findings on development challenge the ‘Kaufmann effect’, suggesting this is inapplicable to night warming likely to be encountered in nature. Although many average temperature models predict increasing pest outbreaks, our results suggest that outbreaks of some species might decrease due to the effects of night warming on population dynamics.

AbstractHot days in summer (involving a few hours at particularly high temperatures) are expected to become more common under climate change. How such events at different life stages affect survival and reproduction remains unclear in most organisms. Here, we investigated how an exposure to 40 °C at different life stages in the global insect pest, Plutella xylostella, affects immediate survival, subsequent survival and reproductive output. First-instar larvae showed the lowest survival under heat stress, whereas 3rd-instar larvae were relatively heat resistant. Heat exposure at the 1st-instar or egg stage did not influence subsequent maturation success, while exposure at the 3rd-instar larval stage did have an effect. We found that heat stress at developmental stages closer to adult stage caused greater detrimental effects on reproduction than heat stress experienced at earlier life stages. The effects of hot events on insect populations can therefore depend critically on the timing of the event relative to an organism’s life-cycle.

Climate warming is expected to increase the exposure of insects to hot events (involving a few hours at extreme high temperatures). These events are unlikely to cause widespread mortality but may modify population dynamics via impacting life history traits such as adult fecundity and egg hatching. These effects and their potential impact on population predictions are still largely unknown. In this study, we simulated a single hot event (maximum of 38°C lasting for 4 h) of a magnitude increasingly found under field conditions and examined its effect in the oriental fruit moth, Grapholitha molesta. This hot event had no impact on the survival of G. molesta adults, copulation periods or male longevity. However, the event increased female lifespan and the length of the oviposition period, leading to a potential increase in lifetime fecundity and suggesting hormesis. In contrast, exposure of males to this event markedly reduced the net reproductive value. Male heat treatment delayed the onset of oviposition in the females they mated with, as well as causing a decrease in the duration of oviposition period and lifetime fecundity. Both male and female stress also reduced egg hatch. Our findings of hormetic effects on female performance but concurrent detrimental effects on egg hatch suggest that hot events have unpredictable consequences on the population dynamics of this pest species with implications for likely effects associated with climate warming.

Climate change has led to a substantial increase in intensity and duration of heat waves worldwide. Predicting the ecological impacts of hot events should incorporate both immediate and potential carry-over effects in different intensities of heat waves. Previous studies suggested that higher heat dose in early life stage of insect generally decreased immediate survival and depressed adult reproduction through carry-over effects, or unchanged adult performance through recovery effects. However, our previous study showed a different pattern, in which longer heat exposures in larval stage did not always decrease but sometimes increase the subsequent adult maturation success in the diamondback moth. We speculated that it might be another important pattern in the carry-over effects vs. heat dose, and conducted experiments using a global pest, Plutella xylostella. Our present results suggested that heat exposures in early life stage reduced the immediate survival and produced general declines with significant zigzag fluctuating patterns in subsequent body size and reproduction as exposure durations increased. The similar patterns were also validated in other insect taxa and other stresses by reanalyzing the experiment data from literatures. The finding highlights the importance for differentiating the biological effects and consequences of changes in heat dose at fine scales; daily exposure hours of a hot day should be considered to predict population dynamic under climate change.

The frequency and duration of periods with high temperatures are expected to increase under global warming. Thus, even short-lived organisms are increasingly likely to experience periods of hot temperatures at some point of their life-cycle. Despite recent progress, it remains unclear how various temperature experiences during the life-cycle of organisms affect demographic traits. We simulated hot days (daily mean temperature of 30 °C) increasingly experienced under field conditions and investigated how the timing and duration of such hot days during the life cycle of Plutella xylostella affects adult traits. We show that hot days experienced during some life stages (but not all) altered adult lifespan, fecundity, and oviposition patterns. Importantly, the effects of hot days were contingent on which stage was affected, and these stage-specific effects were not always additive. Thus, adults that experience different temporal patterns of hot periods (i.e., changes in timing and duration) during their life-cycle often had different demographic rates and reproductive patterns. These results indicate that we cannot predict the effects of current and future climate on natural populations by simply focusing on changes in the mean temperature. Instead, we need to incorporate the temporal patterns of heat events relative to the life-cycle of organisms to describe population dynamics and how they will respond to future climate change.