• Energy Research

Thermal sensitivity of tropical trees A key uncertainty in climate change models is the thermal sensitivity of tropical forests and how this value might influence carbon fluxes. Sullivan et al. measured carbon stocks and fluxes in permanent forest plots distributed globally. This synthesis of plot networks across climatic and biogeographic gradients shows that forest thermal sensitivity is dominated by high daytime temperatures. This extreme condition depresses growth rates and shortens the time that carbon resides in the ecosystem by killing trees under hot, dry conditions. The effect of temperature is worse above 32°C, and a greater magnitude of climate change thus risks greater loss of tropical forest carbon stocks. Nevertheless, forest carbon stocks are likely to remain higher under moderate climate change if they are protected from direct impacts such as clearance, logging, or fires. Science , this issue p. 869

AbstractTropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3–5, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

São Paulo, Brazil has experienced severe water shortages and record low levels of its water reservoirs in 2013–2014. We evaluate the contributions of Amazon deforestation and climate change to low precipitation levels using a modelling approach, and address whether similar precipitation anomalies might occur more frequently in a warming world. Precipitation records from INMET show that the dry anomaly extended over a fairly large region to the north of São Paulo. Unique features of this event were anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Southern Atlantic, an extension of the sub tropical high into the São Paulo region and moisture flux divergence over São Paulo. The SST anomalies were very similar in 2013/14 and 2014/15, suggesting they played a major role in forcing the dry conditions. The SST anomalies consisted of three zonal bands: a cold band in the tropics, a warm band to the south of São Paulo and another cold band poleward of 40 S. We performed ensemble climate simulations with observed SSTs prescribed, vegetation cover either fixed at 1870 levels or varying over time, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) either fixed at pre-industrial levels (280 ppm CO₂) or varying over time. These simulations exhibit similar precipitation deficits over the São Paulo region in 2013/14. From this, we infer that SST patterns and the associated large-scale state of the atmosphere were important factors in determining the precipitation anomalies, while deforestation and increased GHGs only weakly modulated the signal. Finally, analyses of future climate simulations from CMIP5 models indicate that the frequency of such precipitation anomalies is not likely to change in a warmer climate.

AbstractWe constructed a whole carbon budget for a catchment in the Western Amazon Basin, combining drainage water analyses with eddy covariance (EC) measured terrestrial CO2 fluxes. As fluvial C export can represent permanent C export it must be included in assessments of whole site C balance, but it is rarely done. The footprint area of the flux tower is drained by two small streams (~5–7 km2) from which we measured the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC) export, and CO2 efflux. The EC measurements showed the site C balance to be +0.7 ± 9.7 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 (a source to the atmosphere) and fluvial export was 0.3 ± 0.04 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. Of the total fluvial loss 34% was DIC, 37% DOC, and 29% POC. The wet season was most important for fluvial C export. There was a large uncertainty associated with the EC results and with previous biomass plot studies (−0.5 ± 4.1 Mg C ha−1 yr−1); hence, it cannot be concluded with certainty whether the site is C sink or source. The fluvial export corresponds to only 3–7% of the uncertainty related to the site C balance; thus, other factors need to be considered to reduce the uncertainty and refine the estimated C balance. However, stream C export is significant, especially for almost neutral sites where fluvial loss may determine the direction of the site C balance. The fate of C downstream then dictates the overall climate impact of fluvial export.