• Energy Research

AbstractGlobal impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

AbstractElevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) influences the carbon assimilation rate and stomatal conductance of plants, thereby affecting the global cycles of carbon and water. Yet, the detection of these physiological effects of eCO2 in observational data remains challenging, because natural variations and confounding factors (e.g., warming) can overshadow the eCO2 effects in observational data of real‐world ecosystems. In this study, we aim at developing a method to detect the emergence of the physiological CO2 effects on various variables related to carbon and water fluxes. We mimic the observational setting in ecosystems using a comprehensive process‐based land surface model QUINCY to simulate the leaf‐level effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and their century‐long propagation through the terrestrial carbon and water cycles across different climate regimes and biomes. We then develop a statistical method based on the signal‐to‐noise ratio to detect the emergence of the eCO2 effects. The eCO2 effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) emerges at relatively low CO2 increase (∆[CO2] ~ 20 ppm) where the leaf area index is relatively high. Compared to GPP, the eCO2 effect causing reduced transpiration water flux (normalized to leaf area) emerges only at relatively high CO2 increase (∆[CO2] >> 40 ppm), due to the high sensitivity to climate variability and thus lower signal‐to‐noise ratio. In general, the response to eCO2 is detectable earlier for variables related to the carbon cycle than the water cycle, when plant productivity is not limited by climatic constraints, and stronger in forest‐dominated rather than in grass‐dominated ecosystems. Our results provide a step toward when and where we expect to detect physiological CO2 effects in in‐situ flux measurements, how to detect them and encourage future efforts to improve the understanding and quantification of these effects in observations of terrestrial carbon and water dynamics.

An attribution study has been performed to investigate the degree to which the unusually cold European winter of 2009/10 was modified by anthropogenic climate change. Two different methods have been included for the attribution: one based on large HadGEM3-A ensembles and one based on a statistical surrogate method. Both methods are evaluated by comparing simulated winter temperature means, trends, standard deviations, skewness, return periods, and 5% quantiles with observations. While the surrogate method performs well, HadGEM3-A in general underestimates the trend in winter by a factor of ⅔. It has a mean cold bias dominated by the mountainous regions and also underestimates the cold 5% quantile in many regions of Europe. Both methods show that the probability of experiencing a winter as cold as 2009/10 has been reduced by approximately a factor of 2 because of anthropogenic changes. The method based on HadGEM3-A ensembles gives somewhat larger changes than the surrogate method because of differences in the definition of the unperturbed climate. The results are based on two diagnostics: the coldest day in winter and the largest continuous area with temperatures colder than twice the local standard deviation. The results are not sensitive to the choice of bias correction except in the mountainous regions. Previous results regarding the behavior of the measures of the changed probability have been extended. The counterintuitive behavior for heavy-tailed distributions is found to hold for a range of measures and for events that become more rare in a changed climate.

Key Points Multi‐method event attribution of the 2015 European drought Contradicting evidence on the role of anthropogenic influence on the event Uncertainty in event attribution may be larger than previously thought