• Energy Research

AbstractLarge portions of Brazil′s Northeast have experienced an intense and prolonged drought for the majority of 2010–2013. This drought, along with other droughts that have hit the South in recent years, has sparked a new round of discussions to improve drought policy and management at the federal and state levels. To assist with these efforts, the World Bank recently conducted a series of evaluations on national and sub-national drought preparedness measures and approaches across five country case studies. This particular article presents the Brazilian case study. The work draws from interviews with key experts and stakeholders, as well as document analyses, and focuses on preparedness measures and approaches at the national and one sub-national case; the state of Ceará. The analysis shows that although there is a rich history of drought management throughout Brazil, there are short-term and long-term gaps and opportunities on which decision makers might consider focusing to improve monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems, vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments, and mitigation and response planning measures.

L’ouvrage examine divers instruments de politique publique et des initiatives d'action publique sur l'adaptation de l'agriculture face à la variabilité accrue du climat et en particulier la sécheresse dans le Nordeste brésilien semi-aride. Ce livre rassemble douze contributions de chercheurs et enseignants appartenant au Réseau franco-brésilien pour le développement durable du Nordeste semi-aride (ReFBN) et au Réseau « Politiques publiques de développement rural en Amérique Latine (PP-AL- www.pp-al.org). Dix instruments ou dispositifs d'action publique pour l'adaptation de l'agriculture aux sécheresses sont analysés. Ces actions et politiques publiques, développées à partir des niveaux étatiques ou fédéraux, sont les suivantes : Adapta Araripe, crédit PRONAF et Agroamigo pour l'agriculture familiale, Garantia Safra, Cisternas 2ª Agua du MDS, programmes locaux de semences à Ceara, politiques d' agroécologie, de conseil aux producteurs, de vulgarisation universitaire à Pernambuco, politique d'agroécologie et de production biologique (PEAPO) dans l'État de Sergipe et de Bahia.Un chapitre transversal de caractérisation de ces politiques et dispositifs examine la gouvernance de l'action collective et des instruments d'adaptation de l'agriculture au changement climatique. The book collect various public policy instruments and public action initiatives on the adaptation of agriculture to increased climate variability and in particular drought in the semi-arid Brazilian Northeast. The book brings together twelve contributions from professors and scholars members of two networks: Rede Franco-Brasileira para o desenvolvimento sustentável do Nordeste (ReFBN) and PP-AL Network (ReFBN) and the Public Policy and Rural Development in Latin America and the Caribbean network (PP-AL - https://www.pp-al.org/en). Ten public action instruments or mechanisms for agricultural adaptation to drought are considered. These actions and public policies, developed from the state or federal levels, are the following: Adapta Araripe, PRONAF and Agroamigo credit for family agriculture, Garantia Safra, Cisternas 2ª Agua of the MDS, local seed programs in Ceara, policies of agroecology, advice to producers, university extension in Pernambuco, state policies of agroecology and organic production (PEAPO) in the states of Sergipe and Bahia. A transversal chapter of characterization of these policies and devices is proposed with regard to the governance of the collective action and the instruments of adaptation of agriculture to the climate change. Esse livro analisa vários instrumentos de política pública e iniciativas de ação pública em matéria de adaptação da agricultura frente ao aumento da variabilidade climática e em particular da seca no Nordeste semiárido brasileiro. Essa coletânea reúne doze contribuições de docentes e pesquisadores membros da Rede Franco-Brasileira para o desenvolvimento sustentável do Nordeste (ReFBN) e da Rede “Políticas públicas e desenvolvimento rural na América Latina” (PP-AL - www.pp-al.org/es) . Dez instrumentos ou dispositivos de ação pública de adaptação da agricultura as secas são consideradas, alguns deles são tratados dentro de vários capítulos. Essas ações e políticas públicas, desenvolvidas a partir dos níveis estaduais ou federal são as seguintes: Adapta Araripe, Crédito PRONAF e Agroamigo para agricultura familiar, Garantia Safra, Cisternas 2ª Agua do MDS, Programas de sementes locais no Ceara, Política de ATER Agroecológica, Extensão Universitária em Pernambuco, Política Estadual de Agroecologia e Produção Orgânica (PEAPO) no estado de Sergipe, etc. Um capitulo transversal propõe uma caracterização dessas políticas e dos arranjos em matéria de governança da ação coletiva e dos instrumentos públicos de adaptação. Ouvrage en accès libre sur le site de l’Éditeur Epapershttp://www.e-papers.com.br/produtos.asp?codigo_produto=3315&promo=1 International audience

Global warming is causing an intensification of extreme climate events with significant changes in frequency, duration, and intensity over many regions. Understanding the current and future influence of this warming in northeastern Brazil (NEB) is important due to the region’s greater vulnerability to natural disasters, as historical records show. In this paper, characteristics of climate change projections (precipitation and air temperature) over NEB are analyzed using 15 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By using the Taylor diagram, we observed that the HadGEM3-GC31-MM model simulates the seasonal behavior of climate variables more efficiently. Projections for NEB indicate an irreversible increase in average air temperature of at least 1 °C throughout the 21st century, with a reduction of up to 30% in annual rainfall, as present in scenarios of regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and high emissions (SSP5-8.5). This means that a higher concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase air temperature, evaporation, and evapotranspiration, reducing rainfall and increasing drought events. The results obtained in this work are essential for the elaboration of effective strategies for adapting to and mitigating climate change for the NEB.

RESUMO As projeções de precipitação e temperatura dos modelos globais do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, utilizados no quinto relatório do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC-AR5) são analisadas para a bacia do rio São Francisco para o período de 2011 a 2100 para os cenários RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5. Além disso, os modelos são avaliados quanto à representação da climatologia da precipitação no período de 1961 a 2000. Para a avaliação, os dados das estações do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) são utilizados. A avaliação baseia-se em dois índices de desempenho: a correlação e o erro quadrático médio. Para a análise das projeções, são calculadas as anomalias das médias anuais divididas em períodos de 30 anos (2011 a 2040, 2041 a 2070 e 2071 a 2100). Para avaliação de tendências e variabilidade são usados: a média móvel de dez anos, regressão linear e o método de Mann-Kendall-Sen. Aproximadamente 28% dos modelos analisados não representam adequadamente a sazonalidade da precipitação. Todos os modelos apresentaram tendência positiva para a temperatura, e apesar da divergência na precipitação, os mesmos projetam anomalias entre -20% e 20% em cada período de 30 anos para essa variável.

Climate change impacts may influence hydropower generation, especially with the intensification of extreme events and growing demand. In this study, we analyzed future hydroelectric generation using a set of scenarios considering both climate change and consumptive demands in the São Francisco River Basin. This project will increase consumptive demands for the coming decades. Five models from the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, were considered to estimate climate change projections. The affluent natural flows, regulated flows, and the hydroelectric energy generated were estimated for four multi-purpose reservoirs considering all existing and new demands. The conjunction of scenarios indicated a possible significant reduction in water availability, increased consumptive demands, especially for irrigation, and reduced power generation. Only at the Sobradinho hydroelectric plant, the decrease ranged from −30% to −50% for the period 2021 to 2050 compared to the historical period (1901 to 2000). The results can provide insights into future energy generation and water resources management in the basin.

AbstractAimThe primary objectives of this study were (1) to assess, in the light of palaeoecological reconstruction, the climate stability hypothesis used by evolutionary biologists to explain high diversity in historically stable areas, and (2) to identify the response mechanisms of a tropical rain forest microrefugium to climatic variability.LocationNorth‐eastern Brazil, Serra de Maranguape.MethodsVegetation and climatic changes were reconstructed using a pollen record in a sediment core from a forest hollow, and the chronology was based on accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon analyses.ResultsPast vegetation dynamics consisted of three main forest types, shown by major compositional changes in rain forest assemblages between 5000 and 1000 cal. yr bp. Dense ombrophilous forest was abruptly replaced by heliophilous early successional tree taxa at 4275 cal. yr bp. These early successional tree taxa were established over a period of c. 100 years, and their dominance lasted for c. 750 years and was associated with dry conditions until 3525 cal. yr bp. Subsequently, the expansion of secondary successional tree taxa over a period of c. 550 years enabled the recovery of ombrophilous forest.Main conclusionsThe vegetation changes in the Serra de Maranguape provide evidence for the high sensitivity of this rain forest microrefugium to climatic variability on a multidecadal to millennial time‐scale during the mid‐ to late Holocene. Despite the substantial compositional and climatic changes, this microrefugium apparently was continuously forested and responded to climatic instability by recruiting key species to its highly diverse stock. This evidence helps to address the joint concerns of evolutionary biologists and palaeoecologists regarding how forests can persist during periods of climatic variability by showing that some tropical regions can remain continuously forested despite reorganization during abrupt and short‐term climatic changes.