• Energy Research

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

The largest impact of land-use change on catchment hydrology can be linked to deforestation. This change, driven by exponential population growth, intensified food and industrial production, has resulted in alterations in river flow regimes such as high peaks, reduced base flows, and silt deposition. To reverse this trend more extensive management practices are becoming increasingly important, but can also lead to severe losses in agricultural production. Land-use optimization tools can help catchment managers to explore numerous land-use configurations for the evaluation of trade-offs amongst various uses. In this study, the Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a genetic algorithm to identify land-use/management configurations with minimal trade-offs between environmental objectives (reduced sediment load, increased stream low flow) and the crop yields of maize and soybean in Nyangores catchment (Kenya). During the land-use optimization, areas under conventional agriculture could either remain as they are or change to agroforestry or conservation agriculture (CA), where the latter was represented by introducing contour farming and vegetative filter strips. From the sets of the resulting Pareto-optimal solutions we selected mid-range solutions, representing a fair compromise among all objectives, for further analysis. We found that a combined measure implementation strategy (agroforestry on certain sites and conservation agriculture on other sites within the catchment) proved to be superior over single measure implementation strategies. On the catchment scale, a 3.6% change to forests combined with a 35% change to CA resulted in highly reduced sediment loads (−78%), increased low flow (+14%) and only slightly decreased crop yields (<4%). There was a tendency of the genetic algorithm to implement more extensive management practices in the upper part of the catchment while leaving conventional agriculture in the lower part. Our study shows that a spatially targeted implementation strategy for different conservation management practices can remarkably improve environmental sustainability with only marginal trade-offs in crop production at the catchment-level. Incentive policies such as payments for ecosystem services (PES), considering upstream and downstream stakeholders, could offer a practical way to effect these changes.

An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models.