• Energy Research

Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence of species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with much evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of marine biological impacts of climate change are of the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters) or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).

Climate change is driving the redistribution of species at a global scale and documenting and predicting species' responses to warming is a principal focus of contemporary ecology. When interpreting and predicting their responses to warming, species are generally treated as single homogenous physiological units. However, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity can result in intraspecific differences in thermal niche. Therefore, population loss may also not only occur from trailing edges. In species with low dispersal capacity this will have profound impacts for the species as a whole, as local population loss will not be offset by immigration of warm tolerant individuals. Recent evidence from terrestrial forests has shown that incorporation of intraspecific variation in thermal niche is vital to accurately predicting species responses to warming. However, marine macrophytes (i.e. seagrasses and seaweeds) that form some of the world's most productive and diverse ecosystems have not been examined in the same context. We conducted a literature review to determine how common intraspecific variation in thermal physiology is in marine macrophytes. We find that 90% of studies identified (n = 42) found clear differences in thermal niche between geographically separated populations. Therefore, non‐trailing edge populations may also be vulnerable to future warming trends and given their limited dispersal capacity, such population loss may not be offset by immigration. We also explore how next generation sequencing (NGS) is allowing unprecedented mechanistic insight into plasticity and adaptation. We conclude that in the ‘genomic era’ it may be possible to link understanding of plasticity and adaptation at the genetic level through to changes in populations providing novel insights on the redistribution of populations under future climate change.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are emerging as forceful agents of ecosystem change and are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity with climate change. During MHWs, physiological thresholds of native species may be exceeded while the performance of invasive species with warm affinities may be enhanced. As a consequence, MHWs could significantly alter an ecosystem's invasive dynamics, but such interactions are poorly understood. Following a 10‐d acclimation period, we investigated the physiological resistance and resilience of an intertidal rock pool assemblage invaded by the seaweed Sargassum muticum to realistic 14‐d marine heatwave scenarios (+1.5°C, +2.0°C, +3.5°C) followed by a 14‐d recovery period. We conducted mesocosm experiments in both summer and winter to investigate temporal variability of MHWs. MHW treatments had clear negative impacts on native seaweeds (Fucus serratus and Chondrus crispus) while enhancing the performance of S. muticum. This pattern was consistent across season indicating that acclimation to cooler ambient temperatures results in winter MHWs having significant impacts on native species. As climate warming advances, this may ultimately lead to changes in competitive interactions and potentially exclusion of native species, while invasive species may proliferate and become more conspicuous within temperate rocky shore environments.

AbstractWhile marine kelp forests have provided valuable ecosystem services for millennia, the global ecological and economic value of those services is largely unresolved. Kelp forests are diminishing in many regions worldwide, and efforts to manage these ecosystems are hindered without accurate estimates of the value of the services that kelp forests provide to human societies. Here, we present a global estimate of the ecological and economic potential of three key ecosystem services - fisheries production, nutrient cycling, and carbon removal provided by six major forest forming kelp genera (Ecklonia, Laminaria, Lessonia, Macrocystis, Nereocystis, and Saccharina). Each of these genera creates a potential value of between $64,400 and $147,100/hectare each year. Collectively, they generate between $465 and $562 billion/year worldwide, with an average of $500 billion. These values are primarily driven by fisheries production (mean $29,900, 904 Kg/Ha/year) and nitrogen removal ($73,800, 657 Kg N/Ha/year), though kelp forests are also estimated to sequester 4.91 megatons of carbon from the atmosphere/year highlighting their potential as blue carbon systems for climate change mitigation. These findings highlight the ecological and economic value of kelp forests to society and will facilitate better informed marine management and conservation decisions.

Abstract Determining and predicting species' responses to climate change is a fundamental goal of contemporary ecology. When interpreting responses to warming species are often treated as a single physiological unit with a single species-wide thermal niche. This assumes that trailing edge populations are most vulnerable to warming, as it is here where a species' thermal niche will be exceeded first. Local adaptation can, however, result in narrower thermal tolerance limits for local populations, so that similar relative increases in temperature can exceed local niches throughout a species range. We used a combination of common garden temperature heat-shock experiments (8–32 °C) and population genetics (microsatellites) to identify thermal ecotypes of northeast Atlantic range centre and trailing edge populations of the habitat-forming kelp , Laminaria digitata . Using upregulation of hsp70 as an indicator of thermal stress, we found that trailing edge populations were better equipped to tolerate acute temperature shocks. This pattern was consistent across seasons, indicating that between-population variability is fixed. High genetic structuring was also observed, with range centre and trailing edge populations representing highly distinct clusters with little gene flow between regions. Taken together, this suggests the presence of distinct thermal ecotypes for L. digitata, which may mean responses to future warming are more complex than linear range contractions.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Inter Research via http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps11956

The distribution of most species is expected to alter in response to climate change. Pre- dictions for the extent of these range shifts are frequently based on 'climate envelope' approaches, which often oversimplify species responses because many do not consider interactions between physical and biological factors. The local persistence of some species, however, is likely to be strongly modulated by microhabitat-forming organisms. Using congeneric patellid gastropods with northern/ boreal and southern/lusitanian distributions, we have demonstrated how the loss of habitat-forming macroalgal species could modify species responses to climate change. The northern limpet Patella vulgata preferentially aggregates beneath Fucus spp. When Fucus vesiculosus was experimentally removed, to simulate a decline in macroalgal abundance in response to climatic warming, P. vulgata suffered increased mortality or relocated home scars, often to nearby Fucus spp. patches. In contrast, the southern limpet P. depressa did not aggregate beneath Fucus spp. and showed no response in terms of movement or mortality to the loss of F. vesiculosus. Based on these results, we predict that the loss of Fucus spp. will influence the relative abundance of these 2 limpet species, particularly at the distributional limit of Fucus spp. In addition, differences in the aggregative behaviour of these limpet species will result in changes in the spatial distribution of grazing in the intertidal, with likely consequences for community dynamics. These outcomes could not be anticipated from predictions based on direct responses to temperature alone, highlighting the need for biotic and abiotic factors to be incorporated into predictions of species responses to climate change.