• Energy Research

Many areas in the Arctic are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We observe large-scale effects on physical, biological, economic and social parameters, including ice cover, species distributions, economic activity and regional governance frameworks. Arctic living marine resources are affected in various ways. A holistic understanding of these effects requires a multidisciplinary enterprise. We synthesize relevant research, from oceanography and ecology, via economics, to political science and international law. We find that multidisciplinary research can enhance our understanding and promote new questions and issues relating to impacts and outcomes of climate change in the Arctic. Such issues include recent insights on changing spawning migrations of the North-east Arctic cod stock that necessitates revisions of socioeconomic estimates of ecosystem wealth in the Barents Sea, better integrated prediction systems that require increased cooperation between experts on climate prediction and ecosystem modelling, and institutional complexities of Arctic governance that require enhanced coordination.

In this study we investigate both historical and potential future changes in the spatial distribution of spawning habitats for Northeast Arctic cod (NEA cod) based on a literature study on spawning habitats and different physical factors from a downscaled climate model. The approach to use a high resolution regional ocean model to analyze spawning sites is new and provides more details about crucial physical factors than a global low resolution model can. The model is evaluated with respect to temperature and salinity along the Norwegian coast during the last decades and shows acceptable agreement with observations. However, the model does not take into consideration biological or evolutionary factors which also have impact on choice of spawning sites. Our results from the downscaled RCP4.5 scenario suggest that the spawning sites will be shifted further northeastwards, with new locations at the Russian coast close to Murmansk over the next 50 years, where low temperatures for many decades in the last century were a limiting factor on spawning during spring. The regional model gives future temperatures above the chosen lower critical minimum value in larger areas than today and indicates that spawning will be more extensive there. Dependent on the chosen upper temperature boundary, future temperatures may become a limiting factor for spawning habitats at traditional spawning sites south of Lofoten. Finally, the observed long-term latitudinal shifts in spawning habitats along the Norwegian coast the recent decades may be indirectly linked to temperature through the latitudinal shift of the sea ice edge and the corresponding shift in available ice-free predation habitats, which control the average migration distance to the spawning sites. We therefore acknowledge that physical limitations for defining the spawning sites might be proxies for other biophysically related factors.

Understanding and responding to the rapidly occurring environmental changes in the Arctic over the past few decades require new approaches in science. This includes improved collaborations within the scientific community but also enhanced dialogue between scientists and societal stakeholders, especially with Arctic communities. As a contribution to the Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARPIII), the Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) network held an international workshop in France, in October 2014, in order to discuss high-priority requirements for future Arctic marine and coastal research from an early-career scientists (ECS) perspective. The discussion encompassed a variety of research fields, including topics of oceanographic conditions, sea-ice monitoring, marine biodiversity, land-ocean interactions, and geological reconstructions, as well as law and governance issues. Participants of the workshop strongly agreed on the need to enhance interdisciplinarity in order to collect comprehensive knowledge about the modern and past Arctic Ocean's geo-ecological dynamics. Such knowledge enables improved predictions of Arctic developments and provides the basis for elaborate decision-making on future actions under plausible environmental and climate scenarios in the high northern latitudes. Priority research sheets resulting from the workshop's discussions were distributed during the ICARPIII meetings in April 2015 in Japan, and are publicly available online.