• Energy Research

AbstractGlobal climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine‐dependent large‐bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3–5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012–2013 and 2015–2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances.

Interdisciplinary research is increasingly called upon to find solutions to complex sustainability problems, yet co-creating usable knowledge can be challenging. This article offers broad lessons for conducting interdisciplinary science from the South Florida Water, Sustainability, and Climate Project (SFWSC), a 5-year project funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). The goal was to develop a holistic decision-making framework to improve understanding of the complex natural-social system of South Florida water allocation and its threats from climate change, including sea level rise, using a water resources optimization model as an integration mechanism. The SFWSC project faced several challenges, including uncertainty with tasks, high task interdependence, and ensuring communication among geographically dispersed members. Our hypothesis was that adaptive techniques would help overcome these challenges and maintain scientific rigor as research evolved. By systematically evaluating the interdisciplinary management approach throughout the project, we learned that integration can be supported by a three-pronged approach: (1) Build a well-defined team and leadership structure for collaboration across geographic distance and disciplines, ensuring adequate coordination funding, encouraging cross-pollination, and allowing team structure to adapt; (2) intentionally design a process and structure for facilitating collaboration, creating mechanisms for routine analysis, and incorporating collaboration tools that foster communication; and (3) support integration within the scientific framework, by using a shared research output, and encouraging team members to adapt when facing unanticipated constraints. These lessons contribute to the international body of knowledge on interdisciplinary research and can assist teams attempting to develop sustainable solutions in complex natural-social systems.

The response of communities to climate extremes can be quite variable. Much of this variation has been attributed to differences in community-specific functional trait diversity, as well as community composition. Yet, few if any studies have explicitly tested the response of the functional trait structure of communities following climate extremes (CEs). Recently in South Florida, two independent, but sequential potential CEs took place, a 2010 cold front, followed by a 2011 drought, both of which had profound impacts on a subtropical estuarine fish community. These CEs provided an opportunity to test whether the structure of South Florida fish communities following each extreme was a result of species-specific differences in functional traits. From historical temperature (1927-2012) and freshwater inflows records into the estuary (1955-2012), we determined that the cold front was a statistically extreme disturbance, while the drought was not, but rather a decadal rare disturbance. The two disturbances predictably affected different parts of functional community structure and thus different component species. The cold front virtually eliminated tropical species, including large-bodied snook, mojarra species, nonnative cichlids, and striped mullet, while having little affect on temperate fishes. Likewise, the drought severely impacted freshwater fishes including Florida gar, bowfin, and two centrarchids, with little effect on euryhaline species. Our findings illustrate the ability of this approach to predict and detect both the filtering effects of different types of disturbances and the implications of the resulting changes in community structure. Further, we highlight the value of this approach to developing predictive frameworks for better understanding community responses to global change.

AbstractEcosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long‐term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case studies were grouped into separate papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects and compiled into this special issue. This paper addresses the time lags theme with five examples from diverse biomes including tundra (Arctic), coastal upwelling (California Current Ecosystem), montane forests (Coweeta), and Everglades freshwater and coastal wetlands (Florida Coastal Everglades) LTER sites. Its objective is to demonstrate the importance of different types of time lags, in different kinds of ecosystems, as drivers of ecosystem structure and function and how these can effectively be addressed with long‐term studies. The concept that slow, interactive, compounded changes can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure, function, services, and future scenarios is apparent in many systems, but they are difficult to quantify and predict. The case studies presented here illustrate the expanding scope of thinking about time lags within the LTER network and beyond. Specifically, they examine what variables are best indicators of lagged changes in arctic tundra, how progressive ocean warming can have profound effects on zooplankton and phytoplankton in waters off the California coast, how a series of species changes over many decades can affect Eastern deciduous forests, and how infrequent, extreme cold spells and storms can have enduring effects on fish populations and wetland vegetation along the Southeast coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The case studies highlight the need for a diverse set of LTER (and other research networks) sites to sort out the multiple components of time lag effects in ecosystems.

Variability in space use among conspecifics can emerge from foraging strategies that track available resources, especially in riverscapes that promote high synchrony between prey pulses and consumers. Projected changes in riverscape hydrological regimes due to water management and climate change accentuate the need to understand the natural variability in animal space use and its implications for population dynamics and ecosystem function. Here, we used long-term tracking of Common Snook (Centropomus undecimalis) movement and trophic dynamics in the Shark River, Everglades National Park from 2012 to 2023 to test how specialization in the space use of individuals (i.e., Eadj) changes seasonally, how it is influenced by yearly hydrological conditions, and its relationship to the between individual trophic niche. Snook exhibited seasonal variability in space use, with maximum individual specialization (high dissimilarity) in the wet season. The degree of individual specialization increased over the years in association with greater marsh flooding duration, which produced important subsidies. Also, there were threshold responses of individual space use specialization as a function of floodplain conditions. Greater specialization in space use results in a decrease in snook trophic niche size. These results show how hydrological regimes in riverscapes influence individual specialization of resource use (both space and prey), providing insight into how forecasted hydroclimatic scenarios may shape habitat selection processes and the trophic dynamics of mobile consumers.

Tidal marshes are a key component of coastal seascape mosaics that support a suite of socially and economically valuable ecosystem services, including recreational opportunities (e.g., fishing, birdwatching), habitat for fisheries species, improved water quality, and shoreline protection. The capacity for tidal marshes to support these services is, however, threatened by increasingly widespread human impacts that reduce the extent and condition of tidal marshes across multiple spatial scales and that vary substantially through time. Climate change causes species redistribution at continental scales, changes in weather patterns (e.g., rainfall), and a worsening of the effect of coastal squeeze through sea level rise. Simultaneously, the effects of urbanization such as habitat loss, eutrophication, fishing, and the spread of invasive species interact with each other, and with climate change, to fundamentally change the structure and functioning of tidal marshes and their food webs. These changes affect tidal marshes at local scales through changes in plant community composition, complexity, and condition and at regional scales through changes in habitat extent, configuration, and connectivity. However, research into the full effects of these multi-scaled, interactive stressors on ecosystem service provision in tidal marshes is in its infancy and is somewhat geographically restricted. This hinders our capacity to quickly and effectively curb loss and degradation of both tidal marshes and the services they deliver with targeted management actions. We highlight ten priority research questions seeking to quantify the consequences and scales of human impacts on tidal marshes that should be answered to improve management and restoration plans.