• Energy Research

AbstractCamouflage may promote fitness of given phenotypes in different environments. The tawny owl (Strix aluco) is a color polymorphic species with a gray and brown morph resident in the Western Palearctic. A strong selection pressure against the brown morph during snowy and cold winters has been documented earlier, but the selection mechanisms remain unresolved. Here, we hypothesize that selection favors the gray morph because it is better camouflaged against predators and mobbers in snowy conditions compared to the brown one. We conducted an online citizen science experiment where volunteers were asked to locate a gray or a brown tawny owl specimen from pictures taken in snowy and snowless landscapes. Our results show that the gray morph in snowy landscapes is the hardest to detect whereas the brown morph in snowy landscapes is the easiest to detect. With an avian vision model, we show that, similar to human perceivers, the brown morph is more conspicuous than the gray against coniferous tree trunks for a mobbing passerine. We suggest that with better camouflage, the gray morph may avoid mobbers and predators more efficiently than the brown morph and thus survive better in snowy environments. As winters are getting milder and shorter in the species range, the selection periods against brown coloration may eventually disappear or shift poleward.

AbstractColour polymorphism can be maintained by colour morph‐specific benefits across environmental conditions. Currently, the amount and the duration of snow cover during winter decrease especially in northern latitudes, which can alter the potential for camouflage of animals with light and dark morphs. Tawny owls, Strix aluco, are colour‐polymorphic avian predators with dark (brown) and light (grey) colour morphs, where the grey morph is presumed to enjoy camouflage benefits under snowy conditions. We studied the camouflage potential of morphs in two tawny owls potential using passerines' probability to mob in the wild during winter with and without snow. For comparison with other seasons, we also repeated the experiment during spring and autumn. We found that grey tawny owls have a lower probability of being mobbed than the brown tawny owls only during snowy winters. The two colour morphs therefore experience differential benefits across snow conditions, which may help to maintain colour morphs in the population, although further warming of winter climate will reduce the potential for camouflage for grey tawny owls in northern latitudes.

AbstractAlthough the associations between climate, food conditions and reproduction in the wild has been the focus of numerous studies in recent years, we still know little about population level responses to climate and fluctuating food conditions in long-lived species and during longer periods of time. Here, we assessed the relative importance of the abundance of the main prey in winter (small mammals), and winter climate on population size and productivity in a Tawny Owl (Strix aluco) population in southern Finland during a 40-year period. We studied how population trends changed over time and in relation to winter weather and small mammal abundance on three levels: total estimated population size, proportion of breeders and population productivity. We identified declining trends in each population parameter over time, as well as directional changes in climate variables and prey abundance. Overall, small mammal abundance was the foremost predictor in explaining the variation in the number of active territorial pairs (population size). Moreover, both prey abundance and winter temperature significantly affected the proportion of territorial pairs that attempted to breed and thereby total offspring production, which reveals the relevance of winter weather conditions for population productivity. These results provide additional support to the view that changes in climate can modify predator–prey interactions leading to functional changes in the food web.

To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.